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I have no intention of making any predictions about Election Day.  The New York Times, for example, suggests that Democrat Katie Porter will edge out incumbent Republican Mimi Walters here in my home district, the California 45th deep in Orange County. That would be so great! But having lived for 60 years—represented by Republicans in every single one of those years—it’s just hard to believe it might finally happen. We’ll see.

Anyway, with no polling days left before Election Day, here are two projections for the House. The first is from Sam Wang:

He puts the generic congressional ballot at +8 percent for the Democrats, which would be enough to barely win control of the House with a pickup of around 30 seats. And here’s Nate Silver:

This appears to be a bit more optimistic, with a projection of a 38-seat Democratic gain and an 85 percent chance of winning control of the House. Keep your fingers crossed and keep ringing those doorbells!

POSTSCRIPT: As for the Senate, don’t ask. No one has much confidence the Democrats can run the table and take back control. Unless something big happens, it looks like Mitch McConnell has two more years left as majority leader.

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BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

Mother Jones was founded to do journalism differently. We stand for justice and democracy. We reject false equivalence. We go after stories others don’t. We’re a nonprofit newsroom, because the kind of truth-telling investigations we do doesn’t happen under corporate ownership.

And the essential ingredient that makes all this possible? Readers like you.

It’s reader support that enables Mother Jones to devote the time and resources to report the facts that are too difficult, expensive, or inconvenient for other news outlets to uncover. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

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