Murder Rates Are Declining For the Second Year in a Row

Jeff Asher of the New York Times takes a look at 2018 murder rates in big cities and extrapolates a likely decline of about 5 percent nationwide. If that pans out, the US murder rate will look like this:

So murder rates rose for two years (2015 and 2016) and have now declined for two years (2017 and 2018). The initial increase was quite large, and still unexplained as far as I know. However, if I had to guess, I’d say it was most likely drug related: murder rates increased as the opioid crisis finally got out of control, and the decline starting last year is a sign that perhaps the opioid crisis has peaked and is now starting to fade. This would be consistent with previous episodes of drug use, which have always been episodic and faddish, with a lifetime of around ten years or so (heroin —> crack —> marijuana —> meth —> opioids).

My prediction: murder rates will continue to decrease as the opioid epidemic finally burns out and will then plateau at around 4.0. Stay tuned.

 

BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things they don’t like—which is most things that are true.

No one gets to tell Mother Jones what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please help with a donation today if you can—even a few bucks will make a real difference. A monthly gift would be incredible.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate