Here’s Who’s Leading in the Final Iowa Polls

The Iowa caucus is on Monday, so let’s take a look at the very last of the—well, hold on. Let’s take a look at the weather forecast first:

Chilly! The caucuses are held in the evening, so ignore the balmy 33° daytime forecast. It’s gonna be freezing weather with snow showers. And now, here are the final poll numbers, courtesy of Real Clear Politics:

You can see the much-discussed Sanders surge over the past week, along with slumps from both Warren and Buttigieg. But keep an eye on all those folks below 10 percent. If they stay below 15 percent in the first round of voting, their votes will then get parceled out among the big four in the second round. So who’s most likely to pick up the votes from disappointed Klobuchar, Yang, and Steyer voters? That’s an excellent question, and I don’t know. But I suppose the conventional wisdom says the Klobuchar folks are most likely to switch to Biden. As for the Yang and Steyer voters, who knows?

Anyway, the voting starts at 7 pm Central time and should finish by around 8 pm. Tick tick tick.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily bluster—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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