Are We Ready To Peak Next Tuesday?

Just for the record, here’s my crude eyeball guess about the growth of COVID-19 in America:

This suggests a total death toll through summer of about 60,000. I have a hard time believing this, but both my own projections and the expert modelers seem to have converged right around here. It would leave us with a final death toll of about 0.2 per thousand by the end of summer, which would be extraordinary. I admit that I can’t account for this considering the clear evidence that our response to COVID-19 was messy and chaotic. Maybe God really does watch over fools and children.

POSTSCRIPT: Different states and cities will peak at different times, so there will still be some areas that are growing even when the country reaches its overall peak. By the end of the week, however, pretty much every state should have peaked and should start declining.

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DEMOCRACY DOES NOT EXIST...

without free and fair elections, a vigorous free press, and engaged citizens to reclaim power from those who abuse it.

In this election year unlike any other—against a backdrop of a pandemic, an economic crisis, racial reckoning, and so much daily bluster—Mother Jones' journalism is driven by one simple question: Will America move closer to, or further from, justice and equity in the years to come?

If you're able to, please join us in this mission with a donation today. Our reporting right now is focused on voting rights and election security, corruption, disinformation, racial and gender equity, and the climate crisis. We can’t do it without the support of readers like you, and we need to give it everything we've got between now and November. Thank you.

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