Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: April 6 Update

Here’s the coronavirus growth rate through April 6. Italy is solidly past their peak and declining at a good clip. Germany had a bad day and now looks a little farther away from their peak than I thought yesterday. The data from France is so weird that I can’t make sense of it:

There’s an almost perfect linear increase for two weeks, followed by a sudden explosion, with deaths doubling over the course of three days. Unless I did my arithmetic wrong, this looks like some kind of reporting error from the French authorities.


How to read the charts: Let’s use France as an example. For them, Day 0 was March 5, when they surpassed one death per 10 million by recording their sixth death. They are currently at Day 32; total deaths are at 1,488x their initial level; and they have recorded a total of 133.2 deaths per million so far. As the chart shows, this is above where Italy was on their Day 32.

The raw data from Johns Hopkins is here.

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THE BIG PICTURE

You expect the big picture, and it's our job at Mother Jones to give it to you. And right now, so many of the troubles we face are the making not of a virus, but of the quest for profit, political or economic (and not just from the man in the White House who could have offered leadership and comfort but instead gave us bleach).

In "News Is Just Like Waste Management," we unpack what the coronavirus crisis has meant for journalism, including Mother Jones’, and how we can rise to the challenge. If you're able to, this is a critical moment to support our nonprofit journalism with a donation: We've scoured our budget and made the cuts we can without impairing our mission, and we hope to raise $400,000 from our community of online readers to help keep our big reporting projects going because this extraordinary pandemic-plus-election year is no time to pull back.

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