April 21, 2020

Why Will It Take So Long to Develop a Coronavirus Vaccine?

Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images via ZUMA

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You have perhaps seen on news programs that there are already several dozen potential coronavirus vaccines in development already. Some of them have even been given to people! So what’s the deal with the 12-18 month timeline to get them ready for widespread deployment? Here’s a quick primer:

Most vaccines work by using a weakened or dead version of the virus, which stimulates your immune system into creating antibodies without actually making you sick. However, it generally takes 3-6 months just to develop these attenuated viruses, and we don’t have the time for that.

  • So instead many groups are developing vaccines based on RNA or DNA that directly recreate the proteins found on the coronavirus surface, which should trigger your immune system into creating antibodies. Unfortunately, this has never been done before and no one knows for sure if it will work. It will take 3-6 months to perform animal testing that determines whether this kind of vaccine really does trigger the immune system adequately.
  • Coronaviruses have an odd property that can cause vaccines to make things worse, rather than better. This happened with some trial vaccines for SARS, for example. Testing to make sure this doesn’t happen eats up another three months.
  • Then you have to test for safety. This is a Phase 1 clinical trial and it’s important. We’ve had experience with vaccines that turned out to be deadly, and this phase of testing needs to demonstrate that the vaccine really is safer than just getting COVID-19 in the first place. Even at an accelerated pace, this eats up another 3-6 months.
  • Then you need a Phase 2 trial that checks to see if the vaccine actually produces immune system activity in humans. If it does, it’s possible that it would be approved for emergency use while final trials were taking place. This is yet another 3-6 months.
  • Finally, you need to manufacture billions of doses. Even if manufacturing facilities are pre-built and ready to go, this is almost certainly another 3-6 months.

This adds up to 15-27 months. Since new techniques are being used and we have never developed a coronavirus vaccine before, the low end of this estimate is unlikely. Even with lots of different groups pursuing lots of different avenues, 18-24 months is a lot more likely. Maybe a little less for emergency use on a smallish number of people. (And who would pick these lucky folks?) Maybe more if we’re being too optimistic about how well these trials will go.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

If you can, please support the reporting you get from Mother Jones—that exists to make a difference, not a profit—with a donation of any amount today. We need more donations than normal to come in from this specific blurb to help close our funding gap before it gets any bigger.

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