Donald Trump Doesn’t Have a Gender Problem. He Has Two Gender Problems.

It is conventional wisdom that Donald Trump’s support has cratered among women, especially suburban women. But is that really true?

This goes through mid-October. Trump’s basic approval rating has been remarkably steady among both men and women.

However, voting intentions have changed a lot—though not in the way you might think. In 2016, Trump lost women by 13 points. According to a recent Pew poll, he’s likely to lose them by 16 points this year. That’s a 3-point drop and it means that Trump is suffering one of the worst blowouts among women of any presidential candidate ever.

Among men, Trump won by 11 points in 2016. This year he’s likely to lose them by 4 points. That’s an astonishing 15-point drop. It’s among men that he’s truly cratered. And this has happened across nearly all demographic and racial groups.

Other polls show things a little differently. A Washington Post poll conducted last week suggests that Trump has lost 11 points among men and 10 points among women. Either way, though, what this shows is that Trump isn’t doing badly just because women have turned against him. Everyone has turned against him, and men have turned as much or more than women.

It’s unclear why this is, since news accounts almost unanimously focus on (a) unhappy women and (b) rural men who remain Trump supporters. What they’re missing is the great mass of men who voted for Trump in 2016 but have become disillusioned with him for talking big but doing nothing to make their lives better. That’s the story of 2020.

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THE TRUTH...

is the first thing despots go after. An unwavering commitment to it is probably what draws you to Mother Jones' journalism. And as we're seeing in the US and the world around, authoritarians seek to poison the discourse and the way we relate to each other because they can't stand people coming together around a shared sense of the truth—it's a huge threat to them.

Which is also a pretty great way to describe Mother Jones' mission: People coming together around the truth to hold power accountable.

And right now, we need to raise about $400,000 from our online readers over the next two months to hit our annual goal and make good on that mission. Read more about the information war we find ourselves in and how people-powered, independent reporting can and must rise to the challenge—and please support our team's truth-telling journalism with a donation if you can right now.

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