Donald Trump Doesn’t Have a Gender Problem. He Has Two Gender Problems.

It is conventional wisdom that Donald Trump’s support has cratered among women, especially suburban women. But is that really true?

This goes through mid-October. Trump’s basic approval rating has been remarkably steady among both men and women.

However, voting intentions have changed a lot—though not in the way you might think. In 2016, Trump lost women by 13 points. According to a recent Pew poll, he’s likely to lose them by 16 points this year. That’s a 3-point drop and it means that Trump is suffering one of the worst blowouts among women of any presidential candidate ever.

Among men, Trump won by 11 points in 2016. This year he’s likely to lose them by 4 points. That’s an astonishing 15-point drop. It’s among men that he’s truly cratered. And this has happened across nearly all demographic and racial groups.

Other polls show things a little differently. A Washington Post poll conducted last week suggests that Trump has lost 11 points among men and 10 points among women. Either way, though, what this shows is that Trump isn’t doing badly just because women have turned against him. Everyone has turned against him, and men have turned as much or more than women.

It’s unclear why this is, since news accounts almost unanimously focus on (a) unhappy women and (b) rural men who remain Trump supporters. What they’re missing is the great mass of men who voted for Trump in 2016 but have become disillusioned with him for talking big but doing nothing to make their lives better. That’s the story of 2020.

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IT'S NOT THAT WE'RE SCREWED WITHOUT TRUMP:

"It's that we're screwed with or without him if we can't show the public that what we do matters for the long term," writes Mother Jones CEO Monika Bauerlein as she kicks off our drive to raise $350,000 in donations from readers by July 17.

This is a big one for us. So, as we ask you to consider supporting our team's journalism, we thought we'd slow down and check in about where Mother Jones is and where we're going after the chaotic last several years. This comparatively slow moment is also an urgent one for Mother Jones: You can read more in "Slow News Is Good News," and if you're able to, please support our team's hard-hitting journalism and help us reach our big $350,000 goal with a donation today.

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