Can you figure out what kind of flower this is?
Oh hey, let’s check in on how things are going in Austria, home of lederhosen and edelweiss:
Jewish organizations criticized the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), the ruling coalition party in the state of Lower Austria, over pursuing a proposal that would require Jews to register with the government if they seek to purchase kosher meat. The same rules would apply to Muslims….Jews and Muslims would still be allowed to purchase kosher and halal food, but only if they can prove that they live in Lower Austria and are observant members of their religious communities. Sales would be restricted to a certain amount of meat per week. Effectively, this means that restaurants would no longer be able to offer halal or kosher options, either.
A spokeswoman for the Islamic Religious Community in Austria (IGGÖ), an organization that defends the religious interests of Austrian Muslims, shared the criticism from Jewish associations this week, saying that it was bringing back “memories of one of the darkest chapters in recent history.” The proposal, she told Austrian media outlets, “was in reality meant against us, given that the FPÖ has long stirred tensions against Muslims and divided the country.”
The head of the FPÖ naturally is a big fan of Donald Trump, and delivered this lovely note of congratulations on his election:
Congratulations to the newly elected President of the United States Donald J. Trump! The political left and the elites as well as the deep state are being punished by the voters step by step and removed from various decision-making functions. That’s good, because the law is based on the people. Various Austrian mainstream media and journalists, who have been agitating against Trump for weeks and have already declared H. Clinton the winner in the run-up, were once again embarrassed by the voters.
Color me unsurprised.
Yesterday Jeff Glor of CBS News asked Donald Trump if he was likely to sit down for an interview with Robert Mueller:
My lawyers are working on that. I’ve always wanted to do an interview, because look, there’s been no collusion. There’s been no talk of Russia. There’s been no phone call. There’s been nothing. And it’s I call it a witch hunt. That’s exactly what it is. It’s a it’s a vicious witch hunt. And you know what? It’s very bad for our country. Very, very bad for our country.
No phone call? What does that mean? What phone call is he referring to that doesn’t exist anyway? Inquiring minds want to know.
Donald Trump may be sucking up all the oxygen allocated for piggish men these days, but let’s not forget Harvey Weinstein! He’s fighting back against Ashley Judd’s suit by accusing her of defrauding him, “a bold legal strategy for the former movie executive” according to the Los Angeles Times. Check this out:
Judd’s suit alleged that Weinstein dissuaded director Peter Jackson and his partner from casting Judd after she rejected Weinstein at the Peninsula Hotel in Beverly Hills….The filing says the incident happened on a single day and included asking her to choose his clothes, watch him shower and give him a massage.
Judd, according to court documents, said that once inside the hotel room, she deflected the producer’s advances by saying she would let him touch her only after she won an Academy Award in one of his movies. “According to Plaintiff, Weinstein negotiated, ‘When you get nominated,’ to which Plaintiff replied, ‘No, when I win.’ ”
Her lawyers say this was a mock bargain designed to let her escape the room. But Weinstein’s lawyers claim the deal was real. “Weinstein then attempted to live up to his part of the bargain by trying to cast Plaintiff in as many roles as possible that could earn her an Academy Award.”
Quite a guy, that Harvey. I’m thinking of changing my mind about long-term solitary confinement being torture. Or maybe I’m not.
Here’s the basic chart for new unemployment claims:
For some reason, the Department of Labor always shows these numbers in their raw form and as a 4-week moving average. I’m not sure why. The moving average smooths things out slightly, but hardly enough to matter, and they don’t do this for any other time series. Why only for this one?
In any case, I want to put up a whole different chart: initial jobless claims as a percent of the labor force. As the population of the country increases, jobless claims are also going to increase, so it hardly makes sense to compare today’s number with those from 1969. Instead, we should look at jobless claims as a percentage of the size of the current labor force:
As you can see, we didn’t set any records this month, as a few people are claiming. We set a record back in July 2014 and jobless claims have been dropping steadily ever since. For better or worse, there’s nothing special going on right now. The economy has been expanding for 108 consecutive months, and if it keeps going for another year it will set the all-time record for longest economic expansion in American history.¹
¹It’s already beaten the 106-month expansion of the go-go 60s, and all that’s left now is to beat the world champion 120-month expansion of the dotcom 90s.
Two weeks before his inauguration, Donald J. Trump was shown highly classified intelligence indicating that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had personally ordered complex cyberattacks to sway the 2016 American election. The evidence included texts and emails from Russian military officers and information gleaned from a top-secret source close to Mr. Putin, who had described to the C.I.A. how the Kremlin decided to execute its campaign of hacking and disinformation.
Long before he was inaugurated, it was widely reported that Trump received classified briefings about the Russian cyberattacks. But it wasn’t reported that certain parts of the briefings were based on a top-secret source close to Putin:
Ultimately, several human sources had confirmed Mr. Putin’s own role. That included one particularly valuable source, who was considered so sensitive that Mr. Brennan had declined to refer to it in any way in the Presidential Daily Brief during the final months of the Obama administration, as the Russia investigation intensified. Instead, to keep the information from being shared widely, Mr. Brennan sent reports from the source to Mr. Obama and a small group of top national security aides in a separate, white envelope to assure its security.
But wait. After a year and a half of keeping the existence of this super sensitive source closely held, why make it public now?
I’d speculate the intel sources here reasonably concluded that Trump has already burned their sources and methods to Putin.
— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) July 19, 2018
The American intelligence community has been on edge over Trump practically from the start. But after Helsinki their hair must be on fire. This is basically a declaration of war against Trump, a public accusation that he’s known all along Putin ordered the election interference. One way or another, this is not going to end well.
The White House is reviewing a request by Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Russian investigators to question a number of Americans they say are implicated in criminal activity, including a former U.S. ambassador, a spokeswoman said. The White House decision to weigh the proposal rather than dismiss it outright prompted alarm among former diplomats and on Capitol Hill.
And who are these Americans? Well, one of them is Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia. Why interview him? Because of his alleged connection to Bill Browder, the architect of the Magnitsky Act. If the others are ever identified, don’t be surprised if they supposedly have some connection with Browder too.
The fact that President Trump would even think twice about giving his goons access to American citizens is straight up spine-chilling. But Vladimir Putin is obsessed with the Magnitsky Act, and I guess that means Trump is too.
This is Los Angeles City Hall, with its famous mausoleum-inspired ziggurat top piece. Locals will notice the absence of both the Hahn building and the GSA building in the background. That’s because I erased them. You should think of this as a noir version of City Hall, showing what it looked like back in the 30s and 40s before a bunch of other stuff got built up around it. It’s the city hall of Raymond Chandler and Billy Wilder, not of Quentin Tarantino or Joan Didion.
Over at the Monkey Cage, John Sides interviews Frank Baumgartner, Derek Epp and Kelsey Shoub, authors of Suspect Citizens, a book about traffic stops based on an enormous dataset from North Carolina. Here’s an excerpt:
A key topic in the book is who is targeted for traffic stops. What did your findings reveal about racial disparities in both who gets stopped and what happens during the stop?
….Just by getting in a car, a black driver has about twice the odds of being pulled over, and about four times the odds of being searched.
….You note in the book that these racial disparities would be less noteworthy if they were simply due to underlying differences in criminality. But that’s not the case, correct?
It certainly does not appear to be the case. African Americans are much more likely to be searched after a stop than white drivers, but less likely to be found with drugs, guns, alcohol or other forms of contraband after discretionary searches….Contraband hit rates are 36, 33 and 22 percent for whites, blacks and Hispanics, respectively.
This is very misleading. Take a look at the following illustration. Each square represents a car and each red X represents a car with contraband. The shaded squares show traffic stops:
In this example, blacks and whites both have the same amount of contraband: 12 cars out of 100. However, because the police pull over more black drivers, they find contraband in six cars instead of four. The higher contraband rate is evidence of nothing but unfairness. It’s only higher because police are randomly pulling over more black drivers. But there are actually two plausible explanations for this:
- Black and white drivers have about the same amount of contraband.
- Police officers aren’t pulling over cars at random. They have a pretty good sense of who’s carrying contraband and who isn’t, and for both blacks and whites they have a hit rate of about one-third. In other words, they’re treating both blacks and whites with a similar sense of suspicion, and the result is that they’re searching four times as many black drivers and finding four times as much contraband.
We would need more evidence to know which of these is true. But in terms of how “strictly” North Carolina cops apply their contraband sense, it appears to be about the same for blacks and whites, thus the similar percentage of contraband found. In raw numbers this means they’re finding four times as much contraband per car for blacks vs. whites, but this might be because black drivers have a lot more contraband.
In any case, these numbers by themselves don’t prove anything one way or another and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise. However, there is one exception: Hispanics have a much lower contraband hit rate than either blacks or whites. This really does suggest that police are applying a stricter sense of “suspiciousness” to Hispanics, and it’s not panning out.
Over at National Review, Charles Cooke is annoyed at our nation’s media. You see, under new IRS rules certain nonprofit groups will no longer have to report the names of donors over $5,000—groups like the NRA, the Koch Brothers, various chambers of commerce, and so forth. But wait:
The change applies to every single 501(c)(4) in America. CNN could just as easily — and just as misleadingly — have placed the story under the headline, “NAACP will no longer need to identify their donors to the IRS.” Or it could have mentioned, say, Planned Parenthood. Or SEIU. Or Everytown for Gun Safety. Or the Sierra Club. Or . . .
Hmmm. That seems like a good point. Let’s see how the Murdoch-owned Wall Street Journal reported the story. They’ll give it to us without a bunch of liberal bias:
Some of the largest groups affected include an arm of the National Rifle Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Americans for Prosperity, a group tied to billionaires Charles and David Koch….For the past few years, Republicans have been examining the Schedule B requirements, questioning how useful the information is to the IRS and arguing that donors could face harassment if the information is inadvertently released.
In 2016, the House passed a bill to eliminate the requirement, but the Obama administration opposed it and it didn’t become law….“The IRS’s decision is a move in the right direction to end activist regulators’ culture of intimidation to silence political speech,” said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) “More and more states were using these documents to chill political discourse, rather than encourage it.”
Democrats blasted the decision and warned that the IRS would have one less tool to figure out whether groups are complying with the law. Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.) said he will vote against President Donald Trump’s pick to run the IRS unless he promises to reverse the move. “President Trump’s late-night giveaway to shady donors and interest groups makes dark money even darker,” said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) “The NRA and other special interest groups can now fully operate in the shadows and push their corrupt agendas without any transparency or accountability.” Democrats have warned that changing the disclosure requirement could allow foreign money into U.S. politics without notice.
So it appears that (a) the biggest beneficiaries are conservative groups, (b) Republicans tried to repeal the reporting requirement in 2016, (c) Obama opposed it, (d) Mitch McConnell is in favor of repeal, and (e) Nancy Pelosi is against it. Reading between the lines, conservatives are all in favor of repeal and liberals are all opposed to repeal because it’s conservative groups that don’t want anyone to know who their big donors are.
So I guess that explains that. CNN and other media outlets covered it the way they did because they were telling the truth.