The apparently popular notion that recent guerrilla strikes in Iraq bear similarities to Tet is succinctly laid to rest this morning by Juan Cole. Here’s a paragraph from his Informed Comment blog:

“The current guerrilla war against US troops and the new Iraqi government isn’t at all like the Tet offensive. It is deadly serious. Because the US military is not defeating the guerrillas militarily any more. They have succeeded in provoking an unconventional, hot civil war, which was their “poison pill” strategy for getting the US out. The US has alienated the Sunni Arab population decisively. In summer of 2003, only 14 percent of them supported violent attacks on US troops. In a recent poll, 70 percent supported such attacks. And, the guerrilla movement is well-heeled, well-trained, and adaptive.”

You can find Juan Cole’s daily analysis at www.juancole.com or write him direct at jrcole@umich.edu.