Ever wonder just what is coming our way from global warming? How bad can it get? Check it out. Reuters reports on estimates of the global implications of different temperature rises from Nicholas Stern, chief British government economist:
Temp. rise/ Impacts 1 DEGREE
* Shrinking glaciers threaten water for 50 million people
* Modest increases in cereal yields in temperate regions
* At least 300,000 people each year die from malaria, malnutrition and other climate-related diseases
* Reduction in winter mortality in higher latitudes
* 80 percent bleaching of coral reefs, e.g. Great Barrier Reef
2 DEGREES
* 5 – 10 percent decline in crop yield in tropical Africa
* 40 – 60 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa
* Up to 10 million more people affected by coastal flooding
* 15 – 40 percent of species face extinction (one estimate)
* High risk of extinction of Arctic species, e.g. polar bear
* Potential for Greenland ice sheet to start to melt irreversibly, committing world to 7 metre sea level rise
3 DEGREES
* In Southern Europe, serious droughts once every 10 years
* 1 – 4 billion more people suffer water shortages
* Some 150 – 550 additional millions at risk of hunger
* 1 – 3 million more people die from malnutrition
* Onset of Amazon forest collapse (some models only)
* Rising risk of collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet
* Rising risk of collapse of Atlantic Conveyor of warm water
* Rising risk of abrupt changes to the monsoon
4 DEGREES
* Agricultural yields decline by 15 – 35 percent in Africa
* Up to 80 million more people exposed to malaria in Africa
* Loss of around half Arctic tundra
5 DEGREES
* Possible disappearance of large glaciers in Himalayas, affecting one-quarter of China’s population, many in India
* Continued increase in ocean acidity seriously disrupting marine ecosystems and possibly fish stocks
* Sea level rise threatens small islands, coastal areas such as Florida and major cities such as New York, London, and Tokyo