A Lost Decade for America’s Housing Market?

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While the broader economy might be showing signs of improvement, the US housing market remains a disaster. And if a recent Moody’s analysis holds true, real estate could remain that way for the next decade or more, and even longer in states devastated by the housing meltdown, like California and Florida. “For many reasons, the rebound will be disproportionately small compared to the decline,” Moody’s analysts said this week. “It will take more than a decade to completely recover from the 40 percent peak-to-trough decline in national home prices.” The hardest-hit states, meanwhile, “will only re-gain their pre-bust peak in the early 2030s.”

Ouch. This kind of analysis suggests that America’s economic recovery will be a protracted one, looking more like a W than a V. Granted, the Moody’s projection looks at us returning to housing-bubble peaks, when in fact the housing market needn’t—indeed, shouldn’t—return to the overinflated prices that preceded the collapse. Its analysis, nonetheless, goes to show that normalcy in the housing market is a long way off—bad news, given that real estate plays such an integral role in our economic health (if this crisis taught us anything, it taught us that).

It doesn’t help that the government’s efforts at homeowner relief have been misguided and bumbling. The Treasury’s flagship mortgage relief program—the $75 billion Home Affordable Modification Program—has had little impact so far. Meanwhile, foreclosures (360,000 in August) remain at record levels, as do mortgage delinquencies. To blunt the impact of this predicted “lost decade,” the government and private industry (though I don’t hold out much hope for the latter) will need come to up with solutions that help more than just 12 percent of ailing homeowners.

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WHO DOESN’T LOVE A POSITIVE STORY—OR TWO?

“Great journalism really does make a difference in this world: it can even save kids.”

That’s what a civil rights lawyer wrote to Julia Lurie, the day after her major investigation into a psychiatric hospital chain that uses foster children as “cash cows” published, letting her know he was using her findings that same day in a hearing to keep a child out of one of the facilities we investigated.

That’s awesome. As is the fact that Julia, who spent a full year reporting this challenging story, promptly heard from a Senate committee that will use her work in their own investigation of Universal Health Services. There’s no doubt her revelations will continue to have a big impact in the months and years to come.

Like another story about Mother Jones’ real-world impact.

This one, a multiyear investigation, published in 2021, exposed conditions in sugar work camps in the Dominican Republic owned by Central Romana—the conglomerate behind brands like C&H and Domino, whose product ends up in our Hershey bars and other sweets. A year ago, the Biden administration banned sugar imports from Central Romana. And just recently, we learned of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Department of Homeland Security, looking into working conditions at Central Romana. How big of a deal is this?

“This could be the first time a corporation would be held criminally liable for forced labor in their own supply chains,” according to a retired special agent we talked to.

Wow.

And it is only because Mother Jones is funded primarily by donations from readers that we can mount ambitious, yearlong—or more—investigations like these two stories that are making waves.

About that: It’s unfathomably hard in the news business right now, and we came up about $28,000 short during our recent fall fundraising campaign. We simply have to make that up soon to avoid falling further behind than can be made up for, or needing to somehow trim $1 million from our budget, like happened last year.

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