Quick Reads: “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t 

By Nate Silver

PENGUIN PRESS

Nate Silver, now the New York Times‘ resident stat-head, began earning his rep as something of a whiz by devising a probabilistic model that changed the way baseball franchises evaluate players. And during the 2008 election, he correctly predicted the winner of 49 states and all 36 Senate races. But his book isn’t a victory lap, it’s a confession: We’re not as smart as we think we are. From the housing bubble to political science, the best and perhaps the brightest routinely blow the biggest calls because they can’t separate the signal (truth) from the noise (distractions). We’ll risk one prediction, though: Silver’s book will be hard to put down.

This review originally appeared in our September/October issue of Mother Jones. 


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In "It's Not a Crisis. This Is the New Normal," we explain, as matter-of-factly as we can, what exactly our finances look like, how brutal it is to sustain quality journalism right now, what makes Mother Jones different than most of the news out there, and why support from readers is the only thing that keeps us going. Despite the challenges, we're optimistic we can increase the share of online readers who decide to donate—starting with hitting an ambitious $300,000 goal in just three weeks to make sure we can finish our fiscal year break-even in the coming months.

Please learn more about how Mother Jones works and our 47-year history of doing nonprofit journalism that you don't elsewhere—and help us do it with a donation if you can. We've already cut expenses and hitting our online goal is critical right now.

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