These Are the Jobs Robots Will Take From Humans, According To Researchers With Jobs…For Now

Telemarketers and umpires beware.

<a href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-61642759/stock-photo--retro-robot-group.html?src=csl_recent_image-2">charles taylor</a>/Shutterstock


The coming robot invasion is suddenly a hot topic again. This week, Fresh Air interviewed Martin Ford, whose book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future was just reviewed in the New York Times by Barbara Ehrenreich. The Harvard Business Review published a long article with advice for protecting your career from super-smart robots. And NPR’s Planet Money has been producing a series of stories on how machines are getting really good at doing tasks from serving food and writing news articles to reading emotions.

As MoJo‘s Kevin Drum, who’s been following this rapidly emerging trend for while, explains, by 2030 or 2040 we could see a major economic shift in which robots and computers start to make significant chunks of the human workforce obsolete: “When the robot revolution finally starts to happen, it’s going to happen fast, and it’s going to turn our world upside down.”

So just how worried should you be that a bot or app is about to force you into early retirement? Planet Money made a nifty tool that spits out the chances that your job may soon be done by robots or computers. Some selected results:

Telemarketers: 99.0% chance of being automated

Umpires and referees: 98.3%

Cooks: 96.3%

Manicurists and pedicurists: 94.5%

Roofers: 89.7%

Janitors: 66.3%

Massage therapists: 54.1%

Programmers: 48.1%

Historians: 43.9%

Judges: 40.1%

Actors: 37.4%

Dancers: 12.7%

Writers: 3.8%

Chief executives: 1.5%

Foresters: 0.8%

Preschool teachers: 0.7%

The numbers, based on a 2013 study by an economist and a machine-learning prof from Oxford, are all over the board. In general, jobs that require negotiation, creativity, and people skills tend to have a lower chance of being done by a robot. So dancers and preschool teachers can sleep easy. As can CEOs, who will no doubt find a way to provide essential oversight of the new 24-7, benefit- and bathroom break-free workforce.   

Some of the findings seem to push the bounds of what we’re currently willing to let machines do. Robocalling people during dinnertime, sure. But will we really see a robot ump calling the 2040 World Series? In theory, a computer can call a strike more accurately than a person, but what’s the fun in shouting “Get your vision algorithm debugged!” at a camera behind home plate? 

Only a mindless machine would read these as precise probabilities. “The researchers admit that these estimates are rough and likely to be wrong,” Planet Money concedes. Now if only there were a machine that was good at analyzing data to make reliable estimates…

OUR NEW CORRUPTION PROJECT

The more we thought about how MoJo's journalism can have the most impact heading into the 2020 election, the more we realized that so many of today's stories come down to corruption: democracy and the rule of law being undermined by the wealthy and powerful for their own gain.

So we're launching a new Mother Jones Corruption Project to do deep, time-intensive reporting on systemic corruption. We aim to hire, build a team, and give them the time and space needed to understand how we got here and how we might get out. We'll publish what we find as a major series in the summer of 2020, including a special issue of our magazine, a dedicated online portal, and video and podcast series so it doesn't get lost in the daily deluge of breaking news.

It's unlike anything we've done before and we've got seed funding to get started, but we're asking readers to help crowdfund this new beat with an additional $500,000 so we can go even bigger. You can read why we're taking this approach and what we want to accomplish in "Corruption Isn't Just Another Scandal. It's the Rot Beneath All of Them," and if you like how it sounds, please help fund it with a tax-deductible donation today.

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our newsletters

Subscribe and we'll send Mother Jones straight to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate