Here’s Exactly How Many People Will Be Uninsured Under Each Republican Health Care Bill

Having trouble keeping track? Check out this handy chart.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP

For indispensable reporting on the coronavirus crisis, the election, and more, subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily newsletter.

Over the past few months, Republicans have trotted out a variety of ideas for killing Obamacare. Each of their various bills has shared one key trait: They would all leave tens of millions more Americans without health insurance.

The GOP proposals take slightly different approaches, but most of them have a number of similarities: rules that let insurers charge older Americans higher rates; less generous subsidies to help low-income families buy coverage; rollbacks to Obamacare’s protections for people with preexisting conditions; and massive cuts to Medicaid that would exclude millions of people from the government program in the future. And each time a new bill has been introduced, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has concluded that many, many millions more people would be uninsured than under Obamacare.

There have been lots of stats thrown around for each plan, so we at Mother Jones decided to simplify things for you and compare how each piece of legislation would change the number of uninsured Americans—both next year and a decade down the road. The chart below comes from the CBO’s various reports.

How many Americans will be uninsured?

Uninsured chart
Chart by Mother Jones

According to the CBO, the most damaging bill would be Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) current plan, which would simply repeal many parts of Obamacare. That bill wouldn’t take effect for two years, which would theoretically give Congress time to come up with a replacement plan. But the CBO didn’t buy that logic; it predicted that under the proposal, an extra 17 million people would go without insurance in 2018. That would jump to an extra 32 million people lacking insurance in 2026.

The GOP bills wouldn’t just cause a spike in the number of people without insurance. The CBO predicts that the proposals would impact premiums and deductibles. For the repeal-only bill, the CBO says premiums would double by 2026. In the revised Senate bill that Republicans might attempt to revive next week, the CBO estimates that a standard deductible will be $13,000 by 2026.

One big question mark is the much-discussed amendment being pushed by conservative firebrand Ted Cruz (R-Texas.) The Cruz amendment, which could be attached to any of the existing proposals, would allow insurance companies to sell policies that don’t comply with Obamacare’s regulations. The CBO hasn’t scored that proposal yet, so it’s not in the chart above. But the Kaiser Family Foundation expects that under the amendment, 1.5 million people would face much higher premiums thanks to their preexisting conditions.

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

SIX TRUTHS

Reclaiming power from those who abuse it often starts with telling the truth. And in "This Is How Authoritarians Get Defeated," MoJo's Monika Bauerlein unpacks six truths to remember during the homestretch of an election where democracy, truth, and decency are on the line.

Truth #1: The chaos is the point.

Truth #2: Team Reality is bigger than it seems.

Truth #3: Facebook owns this.

Truth #4: When we go to work, we're in the fight.

Truth #5: It's about minority rule.

Truth #6: The only thing that can save us is…us.

Please take a moment to see how all these truths add up, because what happens in the weeks and months ahead will reverberate for at least a generation and we better be prepared.

And if you think journalism like Mother Jones'—that calls it like it is, that will never acquiesce to power, that looks where others don't—can help guide us through this historic, high-stakes moment, and you're able to right now, please help us reach our $350,000 goal by October 31 with a donation today. It's all hands on deck for democracy.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate