Newly Obtained Intel Shows How the Capitol Police Didn’t See January 6 Coming

Despite early warnings, they assessed the chance of violence as remote.

AP Photo/Julio Cortez

Get your news from a source that’s not owned and controlled by oligarchs. Sign up for the free Mother Jones Daily.

The United States Capitol Police misjudged the potential for violence at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, forecasting it as only a remote risk, according to intelligence reports obtained by the Associated Press.

The reports, in the words of the AP, “show how the police agency for days grievously underestimated the prospect of chaotic violence and disruptions,” even as journalists and activists at the time were cautioning about the potential for violence that they were seeing in online far-right and pro-Trump spaces. 

The daily intelligence reports for January 4th, 5th, and 6th in 2021 had been discussed in congressional testimony and summarized in a Senate report on the failure to properly prepare for and respond to the chaos of January 6. In those full documents viewed by the AP, the publication found that Capitol Police had anticipated it to be “highly improbable” that people would conduct civil disobedience requiring arrests during the January 6 Stop the Steal protest. They rated other gatherings planned at the Capitol that day as “remote,” “highly improbable,” or “improbable”  in their chances of causing major disruptions. 

The reports for the 4th, 5th, and 6th contradict the findings and warnings of other Capitol Intelligence reports. A memo for January 3 found cautioned of a “significantly dangerous situation for law enforcement and the general public alike,” and a December 21st, 2020 report noted that people online were discussing and researching the tunnels underneath the Capitol, used by members of Congress, their staff, and journalists. 

The Capitol Police’s response to the riots and storming of the Capitol were harshly condemned in the Senate’s report on the “security, planning, and response failures to Jan. 6 noting that there was “a lack of consensus about the gravity of the threat posed on January 6, 2021.”

PLEASE—BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things it doesn’t like—which is most things that are true.

We’ll say it loud and clear: At Mother Jones, no one gets to tell us what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please do your part and help us reach our $150,000 membership goal by May 31.

payment methods

PLEASE—BEFORE YOU CLICK AWAY!

“Lying.” “Disgusting.” “Scum.” “Slime.” “Corrupt.” “Enemy of the people.” Donald Trump has always made clear what he thinks of journalists. And it’s plain now that his administration intends to do everything it can to stop journalists from reporting things it doesn’t like—which is most things that are true.

We’ll say it loud and clear: At Mother Jones, no one gets to tell us what to publish or not publish, because no one owns our fiercely independent newsroom. But that also means we need to directly raise the resources it takes to keep our journalism alive. There’s only one way for that to happen, and it’s readers like you stepping up. Please do your part and help us reach our $150,000 membership goal by May 31.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate