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Antarctic Sea Ice Increase: Fodder for Global Warming Skeptics?

antarctic200.jpgHold onto your hats, kids, because climate change skeptics are sure to have a field day with this one: Researchers have found that for the past 20 years, while ice in the Arctic has been rapidly decreasing, Antarctic sea ice has actually been increasing. "See?" The skeptics will say. "If the world really were getting warmer, then it wouldn't be all cold and icy in the South Pole."

But like many global warming denialist arguments, this one doesn't leave a whole lot of room for scientific nuance. Not all that science is fully understood yet, but until it is, you can fire back at doubting Thomases with a few basic facts: For starters, South Pole ice is much thicker than North Pole ice (2 miles in the Antarctic vs. 6-10 feet in the Arctic). Also, the ice in the north sits on open ocean, so it gets warmed from beneath&8212;while in the south, much of the ice sits on a continent.

Sydney Indymedia e-mailed renowned NASA climate scientist James Hansen, and he kindly put the Antarctic trends in some context:

All of the models, and the observations, have the central parts of Greenland and Antarctica growing faster because of global warming. This is a consequence of warmer air holding more moisture, thus increasing snowfall. But the net effect of warming on both continental ice sheets is mass loss, the increased melting being a larger effect than the increased snowfall.

And according to Hansen, not all of Antarctica's sea ice is increasing:

He also said "The fact that West Antarctica is shedding mass at a substantial rate, even though there is only small warming of surrounding sea surface temperatures, is a telling fact in my opinion, and a likely consequence of the warming ocean at depth, which affects the ice shelves that buttress West Antarctica, as discussed in our paper 'Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study.'"

So there you have it: As usual, climate change is much more complex than skeptics would have us believe.






Comments

This is the kind of report that makes me think it is important to abandon the term 'global warming' and start using 'global climate change' instead. The newer term much more accurately describes the array of erratic events we can expect to occur.

Posted by: Rhea on 01/10/08 at 12:19 PM  Respond

The ocean warming is caused by volcanos under the ocean. Don't for get the sun , the solar winds. 2012.

Posted by: Joel on 01/10/08 at 9:28 PM  Respond

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Snow fell on Baghdad on Friday for the first time in memory, and delighted residents declared it an omen of peace.

"It is the first time we've seen snow in Baghdad," said 60-year-old Hassan Zahar. "We've seen sleet before, but never snow. I looked at the faces of all the people, they were astonished,"

Posted by: The Iceman on 01/11/08 at 7:03 AM  Respond

No, the ocean warming is caused by whales farting. It's a natchral cycle. The farts gradually warm the ocean every few thousand years. Then when the whales die off the ocean cools down. Librals are just to stupid to no this.

Posted by: hedinsand on 01/11/08 at 7:06 PM  Respond

"And according to Hansen, not all of Antarctica's sea ice is increasing:" Yes, he is talking about a peninsula on the West of Antarctica which is a very small part of the Continent which extends out into warmer waters which are impacted by factors other than a mean global temperatures.

"So there you have it: As usual, climate change is much more complex than skeptics would have us believe."

The climate is much more complicated than the church of global warming would have us believe. We know of approximately 30 variables and have little knowledge of them and there may be more in which we have no knowledge.

Arctic melt in the last couple of years is not different that what was experienced in the 1940s and earlier written accounts. It is important to remember that satellite monitoring of the Arctic started in 1979 and before that we had very limited knowledge of the region. There are written accounts of the North-West passage being open several times in past centuries but our only real knowledge is from the last 30 years. To an 18 year old, 30 years may seem like the dark ages but in geologic time it is like microseconds, and to a 40 something person like me, minutes.

In the 1970's Dr. Hansen was a Research Assistant and model builder for a study on aerosols and global cooling. The study concluded that C02,(my paraphrase) while not causing increased temperature seem to regulate temperature to prevent excessive cooling. That may well fit the definition of a greenhouse gas today.

In conclusion, warming and cooling have happened many times in global history and even since fairly accurate measurements began in the 19th century. We can agree that C02 is a greenhouse gas, but I am not convinced that any warming in the past two centuries is our of the natural realm, in fact, the measurable warming may well be within the error rate in the calculation of the warming, come on people we are talking 1/10s of degrees C, not significant.

Posted by: BobB on 01/11/08 at 7:07 PM  Respond

Bobby, you are so right.

Posted by: Joyce from Marin on 01/12/08 at 4:06 PM  Respond

It is well known the earth has experienced many various conditions. But the changes that occur extend over thousands and even millions of years. Only on extremely rare occasions has the earth changed rapidly. Often from large object impacts. Massive volcanic eruptions. What we are experiencing is not in the imaginations of anyone. It is scientifically measureable. The carbon dioxide and methane levels in our atmosphere have increased over a 1,000% in past 100 years with a dramtic increase in the past 50. The past ten years have been incredible. We know we are dumping exponentially increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We are overloading the CO2 sinks across the planet. We know scientifically what that does. We are seeing the direct results. How much does it take for people to buy into reality and stop thinking that we are not polluting ourselves into extinction? Economic costs alone will cause the deaths the billions never mind the earth changes that will cause mass starvation. Our sciences are constantly developing. It is accepted by all scientists that we have much to learn. They do not know exactly what will happen but all the exidence points to dramatic earth changes that are primarily responsible by the actions of man. Personally, I'd love it if the near universal conscensus amoung scientists was wrong. I could live out the rest of my life fat, dumb and happy knowing that I can retire and die without the perceived danger ahead. But that's not what the evidence shows. It's just plain insane to be shown something by the evidence and ignore it or rationlize it away. If we take steps to avoid it and 50 years from now we find out our science was wrong, what's the big loss? A cleaner planet. More sustainable systems? Not having a resource devoid rock called Earth? Or ignore it and find out all the evidence was correct and all of our scientist we not sub-human morons and most or if not all of humanity has committed a unbefore believed possible species suicide.
Let's just ignore the problem and hope it is whale farts.

Posted by: nakis on 01/14/08 at 4:45 AM  Respond

The writer states "...the ice in the north sits on open ocean, so it gets warmed from beneath while in the south, much of the ice sits on a continent."
This comes directly after a comparison of what's been happening with SEA ice in both the Arctic and Antarctic.
SEA ice, whether in the Arctic or Antarctic, rests on the SEA. That's why they call it SEA ice! The writer mixes apples and oranges in trying explain the differences.
The same goes for Hansen's explanations, which talk of "the central parts of Greenland and Antarctica." Again, the SEA ice is on the SEA, not in the central parts of either Greenland or Antarctica.
Neither Kiera Butler, nor Hansen, in this post, address the differences in Arctic SEA ice and Antarctic SEA ice, but the fact remains that in the Antarctic, ice is increasing, both in the interior, per Hansen, and on the SEA!

Posted by: Colin Richardson on 01/15/08 at 5:05 AM  Respond

Antarctic sea is melting for a fact

Posted by: Frank on 01/25/08 at 11:17 AM  Respond

You are right Frank. It is melting because big fat Americans eat meat and fart(CO2) too much. They are nothing but big fat fart machines. Go vegetarian, be green.

Posted by: Lucy Lu on 01/25/08 at 11:30 AM  Respond

Hmmm,

So Antarctic sea ice increasing is inconclusive, whilst arctic ice shrinkage is proof of global warming?

What about the fact that this winter arctic sea ice has recovered to normal levels?

Posted by: Simon on 02/19/08 at 1:31 AM  Respond

Joyce,

If rapid changes are an indication of a future trend, then the rapid cooling we've experienced over the last year as measured accross the globe should make you smile, no? Doesn't that mean the Earth will now experience global cooling? Our global warming fears should be quelled with recent cooling data.........

Posted by: Pete on 03/02/08 at 1:36 PM  Respond

Global cooling makes the Iceman smile.

Posted by: The Iceman on 03/03/08 at 1:26 PM  Respond

Wow, the reasons the Global warming crowd through at us is just laughable. I'm a Sea Ice Forecaster in Alaska. there is at leat 33% more Antarctic Sea Ice than March 3, 2007. There was also an increase in 2007 from 2006 and maybe a minor one from 2005 to 2006. These so called climo experts say its due to warmer temps and water? Thats like telling me I'm cold because someone turned up the heat, or, my pop froze in the refrig beause I turned up the heat. How stupid do you think we are? The FACT is its getting colder. Antarctic cooling always begins first. You know the warmest earth year was 1998, 10 years ago. Maybe we have peaked the warming that began in the late 70s and now the earth is cooling. My gosh the Climo researchers might lose grant money over this. One more FACT...Temperature rises always LEAD CO2 increases.

Posted by: Dave Percy on 03/04/08 at 3:02 PM  Respond

Dave, you are suppose to keep it a secret. Don't spread these dangerous facts anymore, people might accuse you of being a non believer, than you would really feel the global warming if they burn you at the stake.

Posted by: Donald on 03/04/08 at 5:23 PM  Respond

why do we stop global warming?

Posted by: ben on 03/26/08 at 2:39 AM  Respond

ben,

First, we should note that we haven't stopped it at all yet.

As for why we SHOULD stop global warming, I would suggest reading a book called "Under a Green Sky". Apparently, four out of five of the major mass extinctions on this planet were caused, not by comet as the one 65 million years ago was, but by global warming. This was not human caused, of course.

However, human caused global warming will appear the same as non-human caused. If left unchecked, the ocean currents will first stop, then shift such that warm salty water sinks to the bottom, rather than cooler water. As the ocean depths heat they become anoxic (no oxygen), most species there will die. Bacteria will breed that produce sulfur. As the anoxic layer gets closer and closer to the surface and finally reaches the surface, hydrogen sulfide gas will be released into the atmosphere at toxic levels bringing the mass extinction from the sea to land. We and many other species are unlikely to survive such conditions.

That's one reason.

Even in the less catastrophic scenarios, global warming will shrink the oxygenated areas of the oceans, reducing the life in them to the polar latitudes. Global warming will cause increased desertification on land where crops will not grow in our new deserts. Some areas will receive too much rain, and in new patterns. Formerly fertile areas will see enormous soil runoff during the increased rains. Some areas rely on the spring snow melt for irrigation and fresh water. As the cryosphere (ice) declines, this will no longer be reliable.

Humans have survived colder times. We have not survived any warmer periods. Will we survive this one?

We are already in a mass extinction greater than the one 65 million years ago that killed off the non-avian dinosaurs. Large warm blooded species tend to fare poorly (i.e. die off) during mass extinctions. We are a large warm blooded species.

Let me know if this does not give you enough reason to fight global warming.

I am surprised that a Misanthrope would be concerned about this global warming myth. Believe it or not, Global Warming is not due to human contribution of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). This in fact is the greatest deception in the history of science. We are wasting time, energy and trillions of dollars while creating unnecessary fear and consternation over an issue with no scientific justification. Maybe for the same reason we believed, 30 years ago, that global cooling was the biggest threat: a matter of faith. "It is a cold fact: the Global Cooling presents humankind with the most important social, political, and adaptive challenge we have had to deal with for ten thousand years. Your stake in the decisions we make concerning it is of ultimate importance; the survival of ourselves, our children, our species," wrote Lowell Ponte in 1976.Temperatures declined from 1940 to 1980 and in the early 1970's global cooling became the consensus. This proves that consensus is not a scientific fact. By the 1990's temperatures appeared to have reversed and Global Warming became the consensus.

Posted by: Sceptic on 03/26/08 at 7:25 AM  Respond

Sceptic [sic],

There never was a consensus on global cooling. Just as there never was a time when people really believed the Earth to be flat, there never was a time of scientific consensus on global cooling

(Spaces added to link to avoid excessively aggressive spam filter. Please past the link without the spaces.)
http : // www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/globalwarming/2008-02-20-global-cooling_N.htm

As for why a misanthrope would care about it, I care because many species I find far more beautiful than our own will die as a result. We have already caused a mass extinction greater than the one that killed off the non-avian dinosaurs. I'd like to avoid breaking the mass extinction record setting even of the Permian/Triassic boundary.

However, I am not surprised that someone who cannot even spell skeptic would have a problem reading scientific papers. Nor does it surprise me to think that would quote a statistic of trillions of dollars spent when those trillions were spent securing the oil reserves of Iraq, not fighting global warming.

I'm a lifelong environmentalist, and detest what man has done to the earth's air and water. But what I detest even more is how the legitimate environmentalist movement has been hijacked by CO2 Nazis who--if unchecked--may very well destroy this planet. There is zero evidence that CO2 drives climate change, now, in the past, or ever. There is overwhelming evidence that it does not (ice core samples, satellite troposphere measurements, not to mention the fact that the earth has cooled slightly in the last ten years while CO2 has increased), yet the CO2 Nazis are driving everyone into hysterics over a non-problem. Meanwhile serious problems, like pollution in China from heavy industry, are being virtually ignored. Carbon dioxide is what plants breathe. What are they going to label a pollutant next? Water? Green grass? Trees? God help us all.

Posted by: crewman #6 on 04/22/08 at 7:57 PM  Respond

Crewman #6, you are right about CO2. It is not the mover, but the effect of the mover. Global warming is caused by the Solar Winds according to the Danes. Look at the rest of the planets in our solar system. They are seeing the global warming from the solar winds.

Posted by: Olsen on 04/26/08 at 5:02 PM  Respond

We are today getting our volcaco in Chili. With the cooling we had in the last year +, will we see more? There is little to no sunspot activity. We are sitting on about two months of grain supply - worldwide. There is a rust problem in several key wheat producing areas. We cannot take a cooling peroid of even two years. We have had 17 good corn crops in a row, if we miss this one, we'll have trouble, right here in River City.

There is a much stronger relationship between sunspots and climate than CO2 and heating.

We cannot just keep using world energy reserves as if they are endless. We need to conserve and match our energy needs with the best available fuel.

Posted by: Ed in MT on 05/06/08 at 1:26 PM  Respond

Ed in Mt. You are right. America is the Saudi Arabia of Coal. Coal is very versatile.

Posted by: Ted on 05/07/08 at 6:25 PM  Respond

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