US Drought Could Spell Another Global Food Crisis

As the Midwest bakes and food prices soar, threats of a ripple effect in the Middle East could lead to more uprisings.

<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/agrilifetoday/5909261983/in/photostream/">agrilifetoday</a>/Flickr


This story first appeared on the Guardian website and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

America’s drought threatens a recurrence of the 2008 global food crisis, when soaring prices set off riots and unrest to parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, food experts warn.

Corn prices reached an all-time high on Friday, as the drought expanded across America, trading at $8.24 a bushel on the Chicago exchange. Soybeans were also trading at record levels.

The US Department of Agriculture meanwhile predicted there would be less corn coming onto global markets over the next year, because of a sharp drop in US exports.

America is the world’s largest producer of corn, dominating the market. Corn is also connected to many food items—as feed for dairy cows or for hogs and beef cattle, as a component in processed food—expanding the impact of those price rises.

That means the effects of the drought will travel far beyond the Midwestern states baking under triple-digit temperatures, said Robert Thompson, a food security expert at the Chicago Council of Global Affairs.

“What happens to the US supply has an immense impact around the world. If the price of corn rises high enough, it also pulls up the price of wheat,” he said.

He went on: “I think we are in for a very serious situation worldwide.”

Some analysts are predicting a repetition of the 2008 protests that swept across Africa and the Middle East, including countries like Egypt, because of food prices.

In 2008, the food shock was due to rising prices for rice and wheat. This time, it’s because of corn and soybeans, and there were no signs of shortfall in rice or wheat production.

But the full effects of the American drought will likely take several months to emerge. Its severity will be determined by a number of additional risk factors.

Global grain stocks have reached a new low, with the US and other countries running down their reserves. “There are no reserves of these foods in the US anymore,” said Sophia Murphy, a fellow at the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy.

That means there is no room for maneuver for countries forced to import grains.

Thompson also warned that countries could make matters worse by stockpiling—putting further pressure on prices. That was the pattern during the 2008 food crisis when Russia, Ukraine, India, and Argentina all cut off grain exports.

It was unclear as well whether America’s demand for ethanol would further limit the amount of corn on the world market. About 40 percent of America’s corn is used for ethanol—which helps drive up the price of corn, analysts say. But there were some reports that American ethanol plants were in shutdown across the Midwest, because high corn prices made production uneconomic.

“What’s difficult is that we see a drought happen today but people really are going to be feeling that six months from now, possibly a year from now,” said Marie Brill, a policy analyst at ActionAid.

But she said it was already clear the reduced supply and high prices of corn and soybeans were set to cause serious hardship—especially among poor people in poor countries which depend on imported grain.

Countries that are net importers of corn could be hit the hardest, including South Korea, Japan, Peru, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Columbia. Much of East Africa will be badly affected, she said.

Even those African countries that produce their own corn will suffer because they are locked into the higher global prices, she said. West Africa is already in food crisis. “If supply is as awful as the US government is predicting we’re going to see another round of high prices and another increase in hunger,” Murphy said.

More Mother Jones reporting on Climate Desk

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with the Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

AN IMPORTANT UPDATE

We’re falling behind our online fundraising goals and we can’t sustain coming up short on donations month after month. Perhaps you’ve heard? It is impossibly hard in the news business right now, with layoffs intensifying and fancy new startups and funding going kaput.

The crisis facing journalism and democracy isn’t going away anytime soon. And neither is Mother Jones, our readers, or our unique way of doing in-depth reporting that exists to bring about change.

Which is exactly why, despite the challenges we face, we just took a big gulp and joined forces with the Center for Investigative Reporting, a team of ace journalists who create the amazing podcast and public radio show Reveal.

If you can part with even just a few bucks, please help us pick up the pace of donations. We simply can’t afford to keep falling behind on our fundraising targets month after month.

Editor-in-Chief Clara Jeffery said it well to our team recently, and that team 100 percent includes readers like you who make it all possible: “This is a year to prove that we can pull off this merger, grow our audiences and impact, attract more funding and keep growing. More broadly, it’s a year when the very future of both journalism and democracy is on the line. We have to go for every important story, every reader/listener/viewer, and leave it all on the field. I’m very proud of all the hard work that’s gotten us to this moment, and confident that we can meet it.”

Let’s do this. If you can right now, please support Mother Jones and investigative journalism with an urgently needed donation today.

payment methods

We Recommend

Latest

Sign up for our free newsletter

Subscribe to the Mother Jones Daily to have our top stories delivered directly to your inbox.

Get our award-winning magazine

Save big on a full year of investigations, ideas, and insights.

Subscribe

Support our journalism

Help Mother Jones' reporters dig deep with a tax-deductible donation.

Donate