It's hard to believe, surveying the GOP field of possible presidential nominees, but back in 2008 the parties were not that far apart on climate change. Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee, backed cap-and-trade for carbon emissions. After joining his ticket, so did Sarah Palin. But back then, lots of Republicans and conservatives also supported an individual mandate to buy health insurance. The Republican Party of 2008 was a big enough tent to include people who admitted demonstrable problems existed and supported free-market-oriented solutions. Not anymore. The rise of the tea party movement and the rightward shift of the Republican base and the politicians who pander to it put an end to all that. Whoever is the Republican nominee for president in 2016, it's a safe bet that he—and yes, it will be a he, as all the leading contenders are male—will oppose taking any action on climate change. Chances are that he won't even admit it exists.
The Republicans basically fall into four categories: (1) Flat-Earthers, who deny the existence of manmade climate change; (2) Born-Again Flat-Earthers, who do the same, but who had admitted climate change exists back before President Obama took office; (3) Do-Nothings, who sort of admit the reality of climate change but oppose actually taking any steps to prevent it; and (4) Dodgers, who have avoided saying whether they believe climate change is happening, and who also don't want to take any steps to alleviate it. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker fall into the latter category. The Do-Nothings are blue and purple state governors, Chris Christie of New Jersey and John Kasich of Ohio. In a sign of how far rightward Republicans have moved since 2008, these are actually the guys who are trying to position themselves as relatively moderate and pragmatic. The Born-Agains are Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Both are staunch conservatives but only partial wingnuts. Back when that meant believing in climate change, they did, but they have since followed their base into fantasyland. Everyone else is an outright denier and always has been.
Here's our full breakdown of all 13 of the top potential hopefuls, including their lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters if they served in Congress. No, we did not include Donald Trump even though he would probably lead in the polls if he ran. And alas, we cannot predict who might be the next Herman Cain. Maybe Papa John? If he, or any other pizza moguls, run, we'll add an update.
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
While President George W. Bush never did anything about global warming, his brother goes further, by not even admitting it exists. In 2009, Jeb Bush told Esquire, "I'm a skeptic. I'm not a scientist. I think the science has been politicized. I would be very wary of hollowing out our industrial base even further…It may be only partially man-made. It may not be warming by the way. The last six years we've actually had mean temperatures that are cooler. I think we need to be very cautious before we dramatically alter who we are as a nation because of it." Last year, he talked about how generating power with natural gas instead of coal would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but he avoided actually saying the C-word or mentioning why reducing emissions would be a good thing.
Notable quote: "I think global warming may be real…It is not unanimous among scientists that it is disproportionately manmade. What I get a little tired of on the left is this idea that somehow science has decided all this so you can't have a view." (2011)
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
Compared to all of his competitors, Christie's position on climate change is refreshingly reality-based. In 2011, he said: "There's undeniable data that CO2 levels and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are increasing. This decade, average temperatures have been rising. Temperature changes are affecting weather patterns and our climate…when you have over 90 percent of the world's scientists who have studied this stating that climate change is occurring and that humans play a contributing role, it's time to defer to the experts." Other than the fact that he understated the scientific consensus—it's more like 97 or 98 percent—there isn't much to find fault with there. But if you think that means Christie will back action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, think again. On the same day he made those comments, he withdrew New Jersey from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade program for Northeastern energy utilities, complaining that it was "nothing more than a tax on electricity." He also rolled back his state's renewable energy goal, from 30 percent by 2021 to 22.5 percent. And the Christie administration conspicuously does not mention climate change in the context of Sandy recovery.
Notable quote: "I haven't been shown any definitive proof yet that [climate change] is what caused [Sandy]. And this is just, listen, this is a distraction. I've got a place to rebuild here and people want to talk to me about esoteric theories." (2013)
Ted Cruz, senator from Texas
Cruz—a high school valedictorian, Princeton alum, and editor of the Harvard Law Review—is supposed to be smart. His grasp of climate science, however, leaves much to be desired. In a February interview with CNN, Cruz deployed classic, bogus GOP talking points about climate change. "The last 15 years, there has been no recorded warming. Contrary to all the theories that they are expounding, there should have been warming over the last 15 years. It hasn't happened," said Cruz. "You know, back in the '70s—I remember the '70s, we were told there was global cooling. And everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem. And then that faded." There has, in fact, been global warming in the last 15 years. And it is not true that in the 1970s "everyone was told global cooling was a really big problem."
Notable quote: "Climate change, as they have defined it, can never be disproved, because whether it gets hotter or whether it gets colder, whatever happens, they'll say, well, it's changing, so it proves our theory." (2014)
(LCV score: 15 percent)
Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas
Category: Born-Again Flat-Earther
In 2007, when all the cool kids were for cap-and-trade, so was Huckabee. He said, "One thing that all of us have a responsibility to do is recognize that climate change is here, it's real…I also support cap-and-trade of carbon emissions. And I was disappointed that the Senate rejected a carbon counting system to measure the sources of emissions, because that would have been the first and the most important step toward implementing true cap-and-trade." But Huckabee totally flip-flopped after the rise of the tea party and anti-Obamaism reshaped the GOP. In 2010, he even denied that he ever had supported cap-and-trade. "This kind of mandatory energy policy would have a horrible impact on this nation's job market," he wrote in a blog post. "I never did support and never would support it—period." By 2013, he was hosting climate-denier-in-chief Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) on his radio show to spread falsehoods. Among the ones Huck contributed himself: "When I was in college, all the literature at that time from the scientific community said that we were going to freeze to death."
Notable quote: "The volcano that erupted over in Northern Europe [in 2010] actually poured more CO2 into the air in that single act of nature than all of humans have in something like the past 100 years." (2013) Actually, no, it didn't.)
Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana
Jindal was supposed to be the great hope of smart Republicans. He majored in biology at Brown, was a Rhodes scholar, and he famously declared, "We've got to stop being the stupid party." But he's done his fair share of dumbing down the GOP. As Brown biology professor Kenneth R. Miller wrote in Slate, "In [Jindal's] rise to prominence in Louisiana, he made a bargain with the religious right and compromised science and science education for the children of his state." He signed into law the Louisiana Science Education Act, which "allows 'supplemental textbooks and other instructional materials' to be brought into classrooms to support the 'open and objective discussion' of certain 'scientific theories,'" such as evolution and climate change. In other words, he's promoting creationism and climate change denialism in public schools. Still, Jindal has never come out and stated whether he accepts climate science.
Notable quote, on EPA's proposal to regulate CO2 from power plants: "This is such a dangerous overreach in terms of the potential threat to our economy and our ability to restore those manufacturing jobs, I absolutely do think litigation needs to be on the table." (2014)
(LCV score: 6 percent)
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
In what passes for moderation in today's GOP, Kasich actually acknowledges the existence of global warming. That doesn't mean he wants to do much about it. "I happen to believe there is a problem with climate change. I don't want to overreact to it, I can't measure it all, but I respect the creation that the Lord has given us and I want to make sure we protect it," Kasich said in 2012 at an energy conference hosted by The Hill. Ohio is rich in coal and heavily dependent on it for energy, and Kasich pledged to keep it that way, touting the promise of ever-elusive "clean coal." In comments to reporters after that 2012 event, Kasich said he opposes EPA regulation of coal-fired power plants' CO2 emissions: "I believe there is something to [climate change], but to be unilaterally doing everything here while China and India are belching and putting us in a noncompetitive position isn't good." Still, give him credit for evolving; in 2008, he claimed, "Global warming is cyclical, and the focus of a ferocious debate."
Notable quote: "I am just saying that I am concerned about it, but I am not laying awake at night worrying the sky is falling." (2012)
(LCV score: 27 percent)
Rand Paul, senator from Kentucky
What makes Paul so scary is that he actually believes the crazy things he says. When your average Republican talks about small government, you know it's all just code for "protecting the currently wealthy and their businesses." So, if you could convince most GOP politicians that it's in their political interest to take action on climate change, they could be moved. Paul isn't like that. He is actually committed to his far-right, small-government ideology. He doesn't even think, for example, that the federal government has the power to force businesses to racially integrate. So of course he doesn't support action to address climate change, and he never will. When he's trying to sound more mainstream, he says climate science is "not conclusive"; at other times, he caricatures the science of climate change to try to discredit it.
Notable quote: "If you listen to the hysterics…you would think that the Statue of Liberty will shortly be under water and the polar bears are all drowning, and that we're dying from pollution. It's absolutely and utterly untrue." (2011)
(LCV score: 11 percent)
Mike Pence, governor of Indiana
Pence is an ultra-conservative who does not much care for environmental regulation. He also remains unconvinced that the Earth is warming. "In the mainstream media, there is a denial of the growing skepticism in the scientific community on global warming," Pence claimed in a 2009 interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews. It is not clear what "growing skepticism" he was referring to. In the same interview, Pence refused to say if he believes in evolution but implied that he does not.
Notable quote: "I think the science is very mixed on the subject of global warming." (2009)
(LCV score: 4 percent)
Rick Perry, governor of Texas
Perry is no one's idea of a man of science or an intellectual, not even his supporters'. Texas political insiders call him "Bush without the brains." At Texas A&M, he got mostly Cs and Ds, even in gym, and an F in organic chemistry. When drought parched Texas in 2011, Perry's solution was to call for three days of prayer for rain. Remarkably enough, that didn't work. Perry, who is extremely close with polluters who donate to his campaigns, simply invents facts to suit his conviction that climate change isn't happening. In 2011, he said, "I think we're seeing it almost weekly or even daily, scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change." The Washington Post fact-checker debunked this claim. Perry's 2012 presidential run was disastrous, in part because he proved himself too dumb even for Republican primary voters, which is sort of like being too white for Iceland. And yet, he is making noises about running again. And since Republican primary voters seem to get dumber with each election cycle, he could be a contender this time.
Notable quote: "I don't believe man-made global warming is settled in science enough." (2011)
Marco Rubio, senator from Florida
Category: Born-Again Flat-Earther
Like a lot of ambitious Republicans, Rubio tacitly accepted the science of climate change back in 2007. He talked up renewable energy and referred to global warming as one of the reasons to embrace it. By 2009, he had seen the error of his ways, saying, "There's a significant scientific dispute" about climate change. By 2010, he was using his Republican primary opponent Charlie Crist's belief in "man-made global warming" as an attack line. In May 2014, Rubio made an inept effort to deny climate science, saying, "Our climate is always changing. And what they have chosen to do is take a handful of decades of research and say that this is now evidence of a longer-term trend that's directly and almost solely attributable to manmade activities." Ah, merely "a handful of decades of research." That's nothing, right? After getting a lot of blowback for those comments, he tried to clarify and just dug himself in deeper.
Notable quote: "I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it." (2014)
(LCV score: 11 percent)
Paul Ryan, congressman from Wisconsin
Climate change can be a tough issue for someone who wants to present himself as a wonk, as Ryan so very badly does. To just ignore the science is to risk looking dumb. So, for Ryan, opposition to climate regulation is more about his intense opposition to economic regulation more generally. He constantly asserts that climate regulations, for example, would impose an enormous cost on our economy. Insofar as he discusses the underlying science of climate change, though, he tries to cast doubt on it, using a combination of phony concern for scientific accuracy and an even phonier regular-Midwestern-guy shtick. In a 2009 op-ed, he devoted several paragraphs to the trumped-up scandal at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit and suggested that climate change should be a low priority for Wisconsinites because it snows in their state in the winter, writing: "Unilateral economic restraint in the name of fighting global warming has been a tough sell in our communities, where much of the state is buried under snow." In July, while refusing to discuss the science of climate change, Ryan asserted that the EPA's proposed power plant regulations are "obnoxious." "I think they're exceeding their authority and I think they kill jobs," he said.
Notable quote: "[T]here is growing disagreement among scientists about climate change and its causes." (2010)
(LCV score: 13 percent)
Rick Santorum, former senator from Pennsylvania
As you might expect from a religious extremist who once compared homosexuality to "man on dog," Santorum's beliefs on climate change are unapologetically ignorant. At least he can boast of having been consistent. As Politico noted of Santorum in 2011, "Unlike Romney and some of the other GOP presidential candidates, the former senator has never backed cap-and-trade legislation or other mandatory policies to curb greenhouse gases." Santorum attacked Romney for admitting that climate change was happening, calling it "junk science" that was invented by liberals to gain greater control over the economy. And his May 2014 book calls climate change a "hyped-up crisis."
Notable quote: "I for one never bought the hoax. I for one understand just from science that there are one hundred factors that influence the climate. To suggest that one minor factor of which man's contribution is a minor factor in the minor factor is the determining ingredient in the sauce that affects the entire global warming and cooling is just absurd on its face." (2012)
(LCV score: 10 percent)
Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin
Walker is a favorite of the Koch brothers—he notoriously kissed ass during a call with a prankster pretending to be David Koch. The oil oligarchs like him because he opposes governmental regulations, except for when the regulation stymies clean energy. Walker imposed regulations to keep wind turbines further away from homes and signed a pledge never to pass a carbon tax. He has also raised money for the Heartland Institute, an organization that spreads climate misinformation. But he's never actually said whether he accepts climate science.
Notable quote, criticizing his gubernatorial opponent for pushing climate legislation: "Gov. [Jim] Doyle has put his trust in international politicians, bureaucrats, celebrities and discredited scientists to replace the real manufacturing jobs Wisconsin is losing every day." (2009)