Kevin Drum - February 2010

Money Meet Mouth

| Mon Feb. 1, 2010 12:39 PM EST

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty wants to run for president in 2012. That's been pretty obvious for the past year, ever since the once-earnest wonk took up the death panel meme, started jabbering about the tenth amendment, and began delivering stemwinding speeches to the tea party crowd. Today he writes in Politico about his outrage over the budget deficit. Bruce Bartlett is unimpressed:

Like all Republicans these days, Pawlenty wants to have it every possible way: complain about the deficit while ignoring everything his party did to create it (Medicare Part D, two unfunded wars, TARP, earmarks galore, tax cuts up the wazoo, irresponsible regulatory and monetary policies that created the recession that created the deficit, etc.), illogically insisting that tax cuts are a necessary part of deficit reduction, and never proposing any specific spending cuts.

The only specific thing Mr. Pawlenty is capable of proposing is a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. It’s hard to know where to begin in explaining why this is such an irresponsible idea, but I will try.

And try he does. And succeeds! Until he gets to his final paragraph:

In conclusion, Tim Pawlenty is not ready for prime time. He may think he has found a clever way of appealing to the right wing tea party/Fox News crowd without having to propose any actual cuts in spending, but it isn’t going to work. It’s too transparently phony even for them.

I don't think anything is too transparently phony for this crowd. There's a famous old Onion headline that goes like this: "Report: 98 Percent Of U.S. Commuters Favor Public Transportation For Others." This is pretty much the sentiment that Pawlenty — and the rest of the Republican Party — are pandering to in the tea party movement: 98 percent of them favor spending cuts for others. Just don't cut their Medicare or their Social Security or take away their mortgage interest tax deduction or — in Minnesota — do anything to rein in farm subsidies. Unfortunately, Pawlenty can't think of anything sizeable to cut that would affect only "others" for a large enough definition of others. So he's stuck. Just like his entire party is stuck, never willing to put its money where its mouth is because they know perfectly well that would mean having to make some hard decisions.

But I'm sure he'll do fine with the tea partiers anyway. Just think of him as a slightly less robotic Mitt Romney without the Mormon baggage and you've got his number. There's no reason that shouldn't wear pretty well with these folks.

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Suburbia's Discontents

| Mon Feb. 1, 2010 12:00 PM EST

The day after Obama's State of the Union address my sister called me. "Was there anything in it for me?" she asked.

This has become sort of a running joke between us. The answer is always "no." That's because when presidents announce plans, she pretty much never benefits from them. Child tax credits? She doesn't have kids. Education loans? She graduated from college 30 years ago. Healthcare reform? She's already covered. Small business loans? She's not a corporation. Mass transit funding? She commutes to work in her car. Cap-and-trade? That'll probably cost her money in higher energy bills. Etc.

I was reminded of this by a link from Atrios to a recent Joel Kotkin piece called "The War on Suburbia":

A year into the Obama administration, America’s dominant geography, suburbia, is now in open revolt against an urban-centric regime that many perceive threatens their way of life, values, and economic future....For the first time in memory, the suburbs are under a conscious and sustained attack from Washington. Little that the administration has pushed — from the Wall Street bailouts to the proposed “cap and trade” policies — offers much to predominately middle-income oriented suburbanites and instead appears to have worked to alienate them.

And then there are the policies that seem targeted against suburbs. In everything from land use and transportation to “green” energy policy, the Obama administration has been pushing an agenda that seeks to move Americans out of their preferred suburban locales and into the dense, transit-dependent locales they have eschewed for generations.

Atrios says, "This is completely idiotic for mostly obvious reasons, including the hundreds of billions devoted to propping up single family home prices. It isn't necessarily a wise policy, but it's hardly a war on the suburbs." I agree: Kotkin is overwrought. And yet, Atrios bangs the drum pretty regularly for the notion that if Obama wants the public to support his policies, then the public better get some goodies out of it. And for the most part, suburbanites might well be feeling that they aren't getting many goodies lately. "Hundreds of billions devoted to propping up single family home prices" is overwrought too, and in any case is generally invisible. The stimulus bill, for example, might have benefited my sister in some way, but there's really no way to know. It's just too diffuse.

In other words, I wouldn't dismiss this quite so breezily. Yes, Kotkin has an agenda. But there's a real tension between good policy and good politics. Cost controls are good policy on the healthcare front, but lousy politics. Mandates are good policy but lousy politics. In the stimulus bill, metering out tax cuts a few dollars per paycheck was good policy but lousy politics. Likewise, promoting high density residential patterns might be good policy, but for suburbanites anyway, it's lousy politics. You can ridicule it all you want, but suburbanites still have lots of votes, and they want some goodies too. That's politics.

Republicans and Jobs

| Mon Feb. 1, 2010 1:35 AM EST

Here's the latest from Washington DC:

President Obama wants Congress to quickly approve a jobs bill in the range of $100 billion, a top White House official said Sunday, reflecting the growing political anxiety among Democrats about stubbornly high unemployment in an election year.

....Democrats hope to win Republican support for the measure by including tax cuts for small businesses, a GOP favorite. The tax credit is designed to encourage businesses to hire workers....Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on "Late Edition" that as long as the legislation creates jobs, "we're willing to take a look at it."

I would like to go on record now with a prediction that this jobs bill will get zero Republican votes no matter what's in it. Anyone care to take the other side of that bet?