Wow. Our experiment is off to a great start—let's see if we can finish it off sooner than expected.
There's been a minor splash because of two new polls that seemingly contradict the Obama surge in Iowa.
The first is an AP-Pew poll that has the three-way race looking like this: Clinton 31%, Obama 26%, Edwards 19%
The second is an Iowa State University poll that is even more startling: Clinton 31%, Edwards 24%, Obama 20%
Here's the catch. The AP-Pew poll was conducted November 7-25. Some of the results there are two to three weeks old. The Iowa State University poll was conducted November 6-18. All of the results there are two to three weeks old. They all predate the juvenation the Obama campaign has gotten going in Iowa these past few weeks.
More current numbers all show the race tied or with Obama leading slightly. An American Research Group poll conducted 11/26-11/29 has Obama 27%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 23%. A Des Moines Register poll conducted 11/25-11/28 has Obama 28%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 23%. A Rasmussen poll conducted 11/26-11/27 has Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, Edwards 24%.
The average, according to Real Clear Politics, is dead even: Obama 27.5%, Clinton 27.2%, Edwards 22.3%.