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Najaf Estimates Split along Liberal/Conservative Reliable/Unreliable Divide
Jonathan blogged on Monday about the disturbingly wide range of estimates of the number of Iraqis who attended an anti-American rally in Najaf that day. Dutiful wonks at ThinkProgress, to the rescue! ThinkProgress points out that credible sources like The New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, AP, and the Wall Street Journal all put attendance in the "tens of thousands" (which, at least according to strict Mother Jones rules, means at least 20,000). Mother Jones also reports, in our Iraq 101 package, that Muqtada al-Sadr, who called for the rally, has "tens of thousands" of followers. The military, however, put attendance at 5,000-7,000, and conservative bloggers jumped on that figure.
ThinkProgress claims that a photo used to support lower estimates is, in fact, cropped. Check it out: It sure looks cropped.

ThinkProgress then shows another photo, of a side road not included in the allegedly cropped photo.

Problem is, neither of these photos have credible sources. The conservative blog Gateway Pundit, in a post including the photo in question, claims ThinkProgress's photo was taken before its photo, and therefore may well show some of the same people, not additional attendees as it claims. I'm gonna say touché on that one, but ThinkProgress has a solid record—and when you pair it with The New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, AP, and the Wall Street Journal and, ahem, Mother Jones, its reliability veritably trounces Gateway Pundit's. One caveat: It does seem a little bit odd that all the sources have used precisely the same wording in providing their estimates—but this is Iraq, and it's not like the Park Service is out there counting.
As for why Mother Jones believes papers of record and not the military, see below.

Comments
Didn't the Park Service stop making estimates after the Million-Man-March when they were criticised for their low estimate? From that incident, I understand that estimates of crowd size are very difficult.
Great article. Next time will you just go to Iraq and get an exact head count for me? I need to know the exact number of Islamofascist, America haters there really are.
Posted by: Anonymous on 04/12/07 at 1:48 PM Respond
Perhaps "Anonymous" can move to Iraq permanently, since his or her president and John McCain have suck-ceeded so grandly in providing such a safe haven for democracy and freedom there. He or she can then take their own photos to prove just how wrong The NY Times on down to Mother Jones, et al, must be. And, perhaps Anonymous should tread carefully, because some people might assume that someone unwilling to sign their name to a post is about as brave as Karl Rove or any other silk-tied little chicken-shit corporate whore bastard who would call Max Cleland and Ron Kovic, cowards and unpatriotic.
Posted by: Richard Aberdeen on 04/13/07 at 1:28 PM Respond
Richard Aberdeen,
Amen and wll said, my anger at what these nitwits like Anonymous say and are doing to America is the same as your anger. And let's not forget the slime job they did on Kerry and McCain in 2000.
And let's not forget the slime job the pope did on Kerry as he also meddled in our 2004 elections.
I AM, the last catholic in America that is still fighting for our shredded Constitution and our democraitc values and institutions.
Scalia, a stasunch catholic said in a public sopeech that he was calling for the end of the rule of law and the end of democracy in America; and this piece of scum is a member of the SCOTUS. I really think all catholics on the SCOTUS should be removed. Catholicism is at war with America and democracy.
I stopped voting for all republican catholics when the pope and the catholic voters gave us Reagan, the sleepy-dopey prez.
No more republican catholic pols or America will become a third rate country run by the pope and the wealthy, just like Mexico.
Posted by: bobt on 04/16/07 at 8:07 AM Respond
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Posted by: Julio Gonzales on 04/11/07 at 3:02 PM Respond