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May 17, 2008

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Citing the Delegate Math, the Obama Camp Tells Clinton: You Will "Fail Miserably"

In a conference call with reporters on Friday morning, David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager, had a stark message for the Clinton camp: You will "fail miserably." He was referring to Hillary Clinton's attempt to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count.

Plouffe maintained that even if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas she will not rack up much of a net gain in delegates. In Ohio, for instance, if the winner of that Democratic primary triumphs by 5 percent, he or she might only pick up 3 or so more delegates than the loser, thanks to the proportional awarding of delegates. Plouffe ran through the tough math Clinton faces. Currently, he said, Obama has a lead of 162 delegates. (The count at Realclearpolitics.com has Obama up by 155.) If Clinton wins close contests in both Ohio and Texas--and polls now suggest these elections will be close--she might cut Obama's lead to 150 or so pledged delegates. After March 4, there are 611 pledged delegates up for grabs in the subsequent primaries and caucuses. Consequently, Clinton would have to win over 60 percent of those delegates to catch up. And to do so, she would have to score a series of super-majority wins in the remaining states. Plouffe called it a "huge task" for Clinton to erase Obama's pledged delegate lead. And he noted that the Obama campaign could end up netting more delegates from the upcoming contests in Mississippi and Wyoming than Clinton might gain on March 4, should she place first in both Ohio and Texas. If Obama's pledged delegate lead doesn't precipitously drop to 100 in the next few contests, Plouffe asserted, the Clintonites "simply don't have any avenue to the nomination."

Sure, this is spin. But sometimes spin can be true, and the math, at this point, does favor Obama.

In the call, Plouffe also responded to the latest Clinton ad. That spot shows children dozing in bed, and a baritonal narrator somberly says, "It's three A.M. and your children are safe and asleep." But the phone is ringing in the White House: "something is happening in the world." The unseen narrator asks, "Who do you want answering the phone?"

The intent is obvious: convince Democratic voters that Obama is not experienced enough to protect their kids if nuclear missiles are about to be launched at them. The always-dry Plouffe--as he is paid to do--dismissed the ad with a clever quip. Clinton "already had her red-phone moment," he said: "her decision to let George Bush invade Iraq.... It's about what you say when you answer that phone."

While Plouffe was talking to reporters--and declining to state how much money Obama had raised in February (when Clinton bagged a whopping $35 million)--the Clinton campaign sent out an email: its top guns would be holding a conference call in the afternoon.

UPDATE: The Chicago Tribune reports that a fundraiser for the Obama campaign says that in February Obama collected $50 million in contributions.






Comments

YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

If you think Barack Obama with little or no experience would be better than Hillary Clinton with 35 years experience.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can fix an economy on the verge of collapse better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) led the greatest economic expansion, and prosperity in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience fighting for universal health care can get it for you better than Hillary Clinton. Who anticipated this current health care crisis back in 1993, and fought a pitched battle against overwhelming odds to get universal health care for all the American people.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience can manage, and get us out of two wars better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) went to war only when he was convinced that he absolutely had to. Then completed the mission in record time against a nuclear power. AND DID NOT LOSE THE LIFE OF A SINGLE AMERICAN SOLDIER. NOT ONE!

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience saving the environment is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) left office with the greatest amount of environmental cleanup, and protections in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with little or no education experience is better than Hillary Clinton. Whose ;-) husband (Bill Clinton) made higher education affordable for every American. And created higher job demand and starting salary's than they had ever been before or since.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American history.

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think that you can change the way Washington works with pretty speeches from Obama, rather than with the experience, and political expertise of two master politicians ON YOUR SIDE like Hillary and Bill Clinton..

You Might Be An Idiot!

If you think all those Republicans voting for Obama in the Democratic primaries, and caucuses are doing so because they think he is a stronger Democratic candidate than Hillary Clinton. :-)

Best regards

jacksmith...

Posted by: jacksmith on 02/29/08 at 8:51 AM  Respond

If you post a long diatribe in the comments thread that has nothing to do with the article...

Posted by: Guy Incognito on 02/29/08 at 9:12 AM  Respond

The Obama camp better take care not to sound like the HRC camp sounded.(inevitable etc.)

Sure the math is all but impossible but HRC is in it and she has a reason to hang in there for now.

As with regard to Nader - BHO must rise above all the others and win on his abilities and popularity. To win any other way would diminish his victory. If HRC was to drop out now it could make BHO seem weak

Let them all take their best shots. If they take the low road - let the people see it and decide if that is okay.

So far the real low stuff has been rejected (as it should be).

There are negatives with each candidate - let's air out all that dirty laundry. Openly and honestly.

I think the electorate is better informed than in any election before. That must be good for the process and the people.

Posted by: capt on 02/29/08 at 10:16 AM  Respond

Experience?

Right now we have a president that has the almost two full terms of experience being president - look how well all that experience works for us?

Experience can translate into status quo or the experience is meaningless.

In this case I think any experience HRC has is both just status quo and meaningless.

Posted by: capt on 02/29/08 at 10:19 AM  Respond

jacksmith - what about Hillary's experience at invoking Executive Privilege? What about her experience on the war or No Child Left Behind or FISA??? Yep, she’s got experience all right.

capt is right. They have experience - all the WRONG experience.

As for the commercial, just more fear mongering and a preview of what you will see from McCain.

Posted by: kirkbrew on 02/29/08 at 10:48 AM  Respond

Jacksmith:

You ARE on idiot if you think that Billary's "35 years of experience" and "accomplishments" as First Lady amount to a hill of beans.

Let me as you this: Would Billary have EVER been elected to the Senate had she not coat-tailed off ol' Bubba? The answer is clearly hell no.

Hm, then I wonder why she is running.... COULD IT BE that she is an opportunistic, power-hungry Clinton?! You know, I think that might be it. And that's the only reason.

I can only hope you have even more time to waste during the work day than I do, jack____.

Posted by: TK on 02/29/08 at 10:53 AM  Respond

If you think Obama's health care program is universal, you might be an idiot.

Posted by: Eddie Bryan on 02/29/08 at 12:09 PM  Respond

If you think that Obama with no experience will be better than Hillary Clinton who spent 8 years at the right hand of President Bill Clinton. Who is already on record as one of the greatest Presidents in American histor

TK – Good point. What did Hillary “accomplish” when in the White House? I recall a failed health care plan and that’s it. Oh yea, a crappy book too. What else?
I doubt that Hillary was at his “right hand” when he was sticking cigars where the sun don’t shine.
No a problem because she is as done as Bill was after he stained that pretty blue dress.
Classy, classy people.

Posted by: kirkbrew on 02/29/08 at 1:08 PM  Respond

Go ahead Hillary, help the Repukelacans win another White House by staying in the Primary past your prime. Obama and McCain are already debating and your name isn't being mentioned. Is this the media again? I think not. You are acting just like a President I know - Not able to grasp reality, so you keep up the fantasy. Either get some delegates or get out of the way.

Posted by: JohnKnee on 02/29/08 at 1:12 PM  Respond

I don't think JohnKnee should stay up at night worrying about Hillary losing this election for the democrats. There have already been a massive number of Republicans voting in the primaries as "Democrats for a Day." They WANT Obama so they can have a surer win.
As for TK's comment that Hillary is power-hungry, what does that make 2-year junior senator Obama, demure and unpretentious?

Posted by: Kathy Giannini on 02/29/08 at 2:09 PM  Respond

Hillary can only win by destroying Obama at the convention.

This will be kill off all the new voters Obama has brought to the Democratic party. She will lose in November.

If Hillary is this selfish her political career will be over and the Clintons wil be hated forever by Democrats for ruining Obama and giving America a McCain presidency.

YOU MIGHT BE AN IDIOT:-)

If you think Hillary can win.

Posted by: Jason on 02/29/08 at 7:37 PM  Respond

Yeah, that ad is atrocious. A new low even for Hillary. How insulting to people, trying to scare them and using their kids to accomplish that aim. Hillary is acting like a "rhymes with runt". I have found that in this campaign I went from a previous position of frequently defending her, thinking that she was just a victim of misogyny, to seeing her as an unscrupulous, power tripper. Can you imagine Bill and Hillary as they gleefully imagine their place in history as not only the first female president for her, but the first married couple both to be president? It probably gets them both so hot they ALMOST want to have sex together. Bill, huskily, sliding open the drawer of the nightstand: "We are going to be so f--king amazing, Hillary!" Hillary, "What are you doing in my room?"

Posted by: Paul Miller on 02/29/08 at 8:05 PM  Respond

Weirdo Clinton supporters -- you are DEAD wrong about the motivations of republicans who are voting in the democratic primaries for Obama. They are not doing it because they think he is more beatable than Clinton. All polls suggest otherwise. They are doing it because they like him, or at least they hate her. My sister and brother in law are two such votes for Obama in Ohio on Tuesday. She's even considering voting for him over McCain in the general (but would vote for anyone over Clinton). A lot of people who are republican are actually moderate and appreciate Obama a lot in spite of him being a democrat. If they were trying to beef up the weaker dem candidate they'd be totally off, given that Obama is ahead of Clinton in head-to-head polling with McCain (and has been for some time.)

As for the crazy Clinton haters -- your sexist remarks are extraordinarily offensive. I'm an Obama supporter, but the one thing I hate about this contest is the incessant negativity towards Clinton and women in general. Obama hasn't stooped to that level but he hasn't denounced the baseless attacks, either, which is disappointing to me and makes me feel like he is not the best ally for women. Lets try to win this campaign without resorting to sexist attacks. It should be easy to do.

Posted by: Katherine on 03/01/08 at 4:57 AM  Respond

Clinton LOSES in McCain matchups.

If she were to win the election, it would polarize the right the way that W has polarized the left and we'd be back to Republican majorities either immediately or within 2 years.

If she loses, we get nutbar McCain for years. Why just 2 years? Because we'll all be dead after World War III before 2010. Does that sound appealing? McCain answering that red phone?

Didn't think so.

Posted by: rxdx on 03/01/08 at 7:36 PM  Respond

I believe that all Obama really wants is to be chosen for the VP. We all know that Hillary will pick Bill as her VP. This issue needs to be addressed by the press so that, we can get down to business in running this World. Women, for the most part have been paying there dues for centuries. Today! In this Country, we now know that they are willing to give there life for the betterment of this and other countries. This alone, should be enough to allow a women to become President. It will be a total shame, to our consolidated manhood, if she isn't chosen, as our next President.

Posted by: Dbone Garms on 03/02/08 at 10:00 PM  Respond

All of this could be moot if Florida decides to hold another primary.

And it doesn't hurt the Democrats. McCain is forced to campaign against two candidates while the Democrats get nonstop coverage because their campaign continues while theirs takes up most of the media spotlight and front pages.

Posted by: Sean on 03/03/08 at 6:27 AM  Respond

Good point, Sean.

Dbone - What does consolidated manhood mean? Also, honor womanhood enough to check your spelling when posting. 'There' is a place other than 'here'. You want 'their'. Bitchy of me to observe, but then, I use spellcheck.

Posted by: Paul Miller on 03/03/08 at 6:45 AM  Respond

"I use spellcheck"

Speaking of being bitchy, spell check will not help with the correctly spelled incorrect word?

I thing you no wad I mean?

PS - the word spellcheck fails on my spell-check.

Tee hee!

Posted by: capt on 03/03/08 at 7:04 AM  Respond

Duly corrected, capt.

Posted by: Paul Miller on 03/03/08 at 11:28 AM  Respond

Only in good fun - I hope.

Posted by: capt on 03/03/08 at 12:26 PM  Respond

It is really unfortunate that it looks as if the Dems are going to loose the Presidency again. Between Hillary and Gloria, it looks bleaker by the moment. I think that it is time for a new and different party. I don't think that the dems will ever have the White House again.

Posted by: Carol on 03/03/08 at 6:22 PM  Respond

Oh, gloomy Carol! If the Dems lose it'll be because an all too convenient national security threat will happen in about July or September, through which they'll play out the story of how Pappy McCain will bring his strong militaristic experience to bear on the culprets, er, evil-doers. But in any event, I think your attitude reflects the defeatist place Dems were in a couple of years ago. I see our chances as much greater now, because more people today are disenchanted with the other side and because Barack and Hillary have inspired lots of people. So cheer up, kiddo.

Yes, capt, in good fun.

Posted by: Paul Miller on 03/04/08 at 5:07 AM  Respond

The general will be a slog.

We have to take nothing for granted and fight for even vote.

They will do everything they know how to do to steal this election (it is what they do).

The GOP didn't steal all that unitary presidential power to just give it all away because they are not as popular with the people.

All the more reason to be supportive of the eventual candidate.

Save the gloom and doom for after the election - there will be plenty to fear if the GOP pull off the theft of the election.

Posted by: capt on 03/04/08 at 5:40 AM  Respond

case in point:

"and fight for even vote"

I meant "every vote" but even passed my spell-checker to my demise.

UGH.

Posted by: capt on 03/04/08 at 5:43 AM  Respond

Ever tried the grammar checker? That's a nightmare because it goes by specifically programmed rules and doesn't understand variation. However, spellcheck at least helps in that if you habitually misspell a certain word, you eventually pick up the right spelling after it's been flagged a lot.
Are we way off subject, or what?

Posted by: Paul Miller on 03/04/08 at 6:28 AM  Respond

"Are we way off subject, or what?"

But not so gloomy so . . .

I hate the grammar checkers.

Posted by: capt on 03/04/08 at 7:07 AM  Respond

if u havent watched sicko youre a idiot because if ya seen it u would know hillary accepted more than $100,000 in lobby money to keep medical insurance away from you the american people now how u like dem apples and dem bananas

Posted by: Masked on 03/04/08 at 9:45 AM  Respond

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