MotherJones Blog: Obama Wins Mississippi, and It's All About Race

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Obama Wins Mississippi, and It's All About Race

MSNBC has projected two things: (1) Obama has won tonight's Mississippi primary and (2) Obama's pledged delegate lead will be 160 at the end of the night. Hillary Clinton will have to win 64% of all remaining pledged delegates in order to finish with the pledged delegate lead. That is, shall we say, highly unlikely.

The Clinton campaign plan, best I can see it, is to downplay Mississippi, play up Pennsylvania and win it, and then take the remainder of the states (potentially including do-overs in Michigan and Florida) by severely tarnishing Obama's luster. Narrow the popular vote to almost nothing, then convince superdelegates that are undecided or that support Obama to choose Clinton because she has won the second half of the primary race. Is that a strategy that is likely to win? No, but it's the best they got.

Exit polling from Mississippi says race was a huge factor.*

Clinton won 71 percent of white women and 68 percent of white men. Obama took 94 percent of black men and 90 percent of black women. Whites and blacks were both roughly 50 percent of the electorate.

The only age group Clinton won tonight was 60 and older. Obama won economy voters, war voters, and health care voters.

Oddly enough, Republicans were 12 percent of the vote tonight and they weren't Republicans caught up in Obama's unity magic. They went 75-25 for Clinton. Draw your own conclusions as to why they voted the way they did.

Can Mississippi go blue in the fall if Obama is the nominee? MSNBC reported recently that an unnamed Democratic statistician believes there are "three red states that could swing if African-American turnout was ever maximized (both in registration and in actual turnout)." Those states? Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Obama took Georgia by 35 and Louisiana by 21 earlier in the race.

But Tom Schaller, author of Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South, would argue that Obama isn't going to rewrite the electoral map down south. He believes that black turnout is already maximized, and any turnout gains that come through an Obama candidacy will be small. The other problem is that, according to Schaller's research, the higher the percentage of black people in any given state, the higher the likelihood that the white citizens of that state will vote Republican. Mississippi has the highest percentage of black residents of any state. If Schaller is correct, Mississippi will stay Republican for a long time.

Update: Final tally: Obama 61%, Clinton 37%.

* MSNBC has changed its exit poll numbers in minor ways since I checked them last night. I've updated this blog post to reflect the network's changes.

Comments

In answer to the question "can Obama win Mississippi in November?", No.

But he can elevate African-American turnout so much that the GOP will be compelled to use more resources there (and in Alabama and South Carolina) than they care to, which translates to fewer resources in the new battleground states.

Yes, Virginia, you can vote Democratic!

Posted by: Egalitare on 03/11/08 at 6:09 PM Respond

answer me this. when a state is say 90% white or the democrats in a given state are 60% percent white do you still say that the voting was all about race? It seems to me that if the democrats in mississippi were 50% black it would commonsensically mean that the voters would be black so when is it just voters and when is it black voters?

Posted by: vril53 on 03/11/08 at 8:56 PM Respond

similarly why don't I hear how many black voters vote for McCain or how many black voters vote for him and arguments as to why or why not and is it a problem? or how many women or women of a certain age or any of his demographc numbers?

Posted by: vril53 on 03/11/08 at 9:00 PM Respond

answer me this. when a state is say 90% white or the democrats in a given state are 60% percent white do you still say that the voting was all about race?

Agreed. Double standard.

Posted by: next question on 03/11/08 at 9:06 PM Respond

The democrats should get real.

There should be one and only one criteria for their primary vote; who has the best chance of winning the general election. Period. End of statement.

If the rank and file voters can't settle it, then the superdelegates should. I doubt they have the b**ls.

Obama is about as far left as Huckabee was right. HRC ain't much better. It looks to me as though the Democratic voters think either nominee is a shoe-in. So they're playing their little tit-for-tat while the opposition is lining up the big guns. The 'Who Would Make a Better President' game is stupid. The question is who can get elected. It's my guess they're going to blow it.

Primaries decide who can win. General elections decide who will make a better President.

Posted by: jtsmp on 03/12/08 at 7:58 AM Respond

Jonathan:

Obama can turn the RED states BLUE, so when Obama turns the RED states BLUE, the Democrats donkey should be BLUE as well, because the Democrats donkey has been crippled with those blood RED legs.

Posted by: MarthaA on 03/12/08 at 1:38 PM Respond

Obama said some voters might favor or disfavor him because he is black, just as some might favor or disfavor Clinton because she is female.

However, he said, "the overwhelming majority of Americans are going to make these decisions based on who they think will be the best president. I have absolute confidence that if I'm doing my job, if I'm delivering my message, then there are very few voters out there that I can't win."

"If I'm not winning them over," he said, "then it's my fault."

*****

People can say what they will - this guy is saying the right things. How refreshing to hear a politician (however flawed) rise above, be honest and take responsibility for his actions.

He sure seems more the real deal than any candidate I have heard from in many years - if ever.

Posted by: capt - Hussein on 03/12/08 at 1:58 PM Respond

Black is PHAT. That's Obama's idiotic platform.

Posted by: georgie on 03/12/08 at 5:27 PM Respond

Uhm...

We've had a good, long look at Obama, here in SC.

We're thinkin' it might be possible, IF the mobilization effort of the primary can be duplicated in November AND we can get a large majority of those who voted for Edwards or the Hildebeast to put their "X" beside Obama.

Best bet...John Edwards as VP!

-T

Posted by: Hajji on 03/14/08 at 12:55 PM Respond