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Potential VP Evan Bayh: Better Than Expected, But Not Good Enough
When I put together my primer on Obama's VP options (sadly leaving off Tim Kaine, a current frontrunner), I described Indiana Senator Evan Bayh as a moderate and a milquetoast. It wasn't a radical description — read any description of Bayh and "boring" and "centrist" are bound to come up. As a result, a lot of progressives are growing worried as Bayh emerges as a frontrunner.
But Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com disagrees, at least on the "centrist" part. He created a chart to examine how well the voting habits of sitting senators (liberal, moderate, or conservative) matches the political persuasions of the states they are from. Turns out that Bayh, a Democrat from conservative Indiana, is more liberal that Ben Nelson, for example, a Democrat from conservative Nebraska. He's also more liberal than Tim Johnson, a Democrat from conservative South Dakota. In fact, says Silver, "there is no senator more liberal than Bayh in any state more conservative than Indiana."
Silver continues, "governance does not occur in a vacuum: a senator has a goal of championing legislation in line with his ideology, but he also has a goal of getting re-elected.... Bayh became somewhat liberal between the 108th and 109th Congresses. What happened between the 108th and 109th Congresses? Bayh won re-election by a landslide margin, and perhaps recognized that he had a little bit more wiggle room to move from the right edge of the Democratic Party more toward the Party's mainstream. The only reason this might occur, I would argue, is that Bayh is at heart a fairly progressive senator."
I find Silver persuasive, but that doesn't mean I think Bayh should be the pick. First, Bayh was wrong on the Iraq War (way, way wrong), and as long as there are legitimate options out there who got it right, I'd go with them. To do otherwise makes a mockery of much of Barack Obama's rhetoric about having superior foreign policy judgement. Second, I don't buy into this notion that Bayh is a rare VP pick who could deliver a state that Obama has no chance of winning otherwise. Studies have shown that a vice presidential pick adds less than two percent to the ticket's performance in the VP's home state. It doesn't matter how popular Evan Bayh is in Indiana; he isn't delivering a state that red. Third, he may not be a true moderate, but he's not a true progressive either. And considering how bad the climate is for Republicans right now, Democrats have an opportunity to put a true believer in the White House. Why not do it?
Bayh's not bad. But there are better options.
Comments
"there is no senator more liberal than Bayh in any state more conservative than Indiana."
What kind of double-speak is that?
I'm old enough to remember Bayh's daddy, Senator Birch Bayh, who was a genuine liberal.
Coming from a long line of Democrats, including a cousin who worked in Evan's office during his 8 years as governor, and watching his performance in office all these years, I can tell you that Evan is DEFINITELY what most liberals would term a D.I.N.O. (Democrat In Name Only, in case you don't know)
On the other hand..., Susan would give us a very fine looking 'Second Lady'..., even if we seldom get a look at her.
Then there is the problem of her being a total corporate tool:
www.journalgazette.net/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071216/LOCAL1004/712160430
But so's her husband.
Posted by: Old Hoosier Voter on 08/05/08 at 11:18 AM Respond
not a comment for posting - just wanting to make sure someone proofreads this blogpost again. yikes.
Posted by: Kevin on 08/05/08 at 11:42 AM Respond
Since Bayh has won five consecutive statewide general elections in Indiana, and by margins ranging from 53 to 63 percent, I wouldn't so easily write off the possibility that putting him on the ticket brings Indiana to the Dems. If that happened, it would, by itself, probably put the general election out of McCain's reach. Though no vp pick's home state can be taken for granted, Bayh seems likelier to bring his home state than any other vp finalist -- more likely than McCaskill is to bring Missouri, or Sebelius to bring Kansas, or Kaine to bring Virginia (which we may win anyhow).
Posted by: TKD on 08/05/08 at 12:46 PM Respond
Since Bayh has won five consecutive statewide general elections in Indiana, and by margins ranging from 53 to 63 percent...
That's because Hoosiers by and large know they're voting for a Republican, regardless of which party label he wears.
You should also consider the fact that Bayh might be an actual drag on the ticket in some of the more liberal states, where there's already a lot of concern over Obama moving to the right on so many issues.
Posted by: Old Hoosier Voter on 08/05/08 at 12:58 PM Respond
It is scary to think of Evan Bayh in line for the presidency. He could even not administer the governor's office earlier in his career . His voting record as Senator is terrible. While popular in Indiana , Bayh cannot carry this Red State for Obama. State has not been in play for Democrats since 1936
Posted by: Zinger02 on 08/05/08 at 3:13 PM Respond
Now, Now Zinger02..., Indiana went for Johnson in '64.
Posted by: Old Hoosier Voter on 08/05/08 at 3:24 PM Respond
Bayh has been on the Dem VP short list ever since 1988. And it's because of an "at first glance good on-paper" resume. Name some issue or topic in which he is acknowledged to have expertise.
Obama first priority should be - and probably is - picking a running mate that would help him GOVERN EFFECTIVELY. I think there are probably a half dozen others (including Sen. Clinton) who rank ahead of Bayh in that regard.
Posted by: Egalitare on 08/05/08 at 3:24 PM Respond
I'm still holding out for Wes Clark for VP. I'm in Indiana, and I, too, remember Birch Bayh. In addition, I went with MoveOn to Bayh's office before the war, and told him to "let the inspectors do their job," and also told him "if we start this war, it will be decades--DECADES!--before anyone in the Islamic world trusts the United States about anything. These people are still angry about the freaking Crusades!"
And, of course, that did absolutely no good. It was the only political demonstration that I was able to drag my sons to, and it was a bust.
Posted by: HoosierNan on 08/05/08 at 4:54 PM Respond
Bayh seems like a likable person, but you have to think why not Clinton? Surely, her 18 million voters must account for something. Plus, she's already got the name and she's already been in the public's eye during this race. Time is important now and introducing someone new may not be the best idea. But, whoever ends up supplementing to Obama's ticket, I'm sure it will be a good decision. Obama's campaign has got some pretty smart people.
Posted by: Custom Valances on 08/07/08 at 10:23 AM Respond
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Posted by: Old Hoosier Voter on 08/05/08 at 11:07 AM Respond