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New Voters to Push Obama Over the Top?
Something to chew on from MSNBC's First Read:
According to [a new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll], new and lapsed voters (those who didn't vote in 2004) back Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin, 61%-30%. If you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004, assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in 2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7 million. But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million -- a virtual tie. "An Obama victory could very well depend on getting these folks to the polls," says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R).
Update: Another quirk from new polls, which all show Obama trending up: Obama is opening up a huge lead among women.
Among the [new TIME poll's] most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a one point margin, 48%-47%.
Comments
just to add...it could also be assumed that the Bush base of 2004 won't show in the same numbers as the lead ticket person is not as religious. granted Palin offers that but I question whether she will carry it forward.
Anything could be assumed, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen.
I prefer to assume that aliens will invade the US on November 3rd and wipe out all the career DemoPublicans & RepubliCrats, burning all the laws that they've passed in the 20th & 21st Century. Thereby allowing us to make a fresh start, where we can build a new government that we'll force to abide by the letter and spirit of the Constitution.
I like that assumption a lot better than any assumption that leads to the same government we've got staying in the saddle.
Posted by: Alien Invasion on 10/01/08 at 8:42 AM Respond
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Posted by: Stephen on 10/01/08 at 7:57 AM Respond