“Blacks Shift to Obama, Poll Finds,” Washington Post, February 28, 2007. Let’s dig in, shall we?
The Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama vs. John Edwards numbers have gone from:
41% for Clinton
17% for Obama
11% for Edwards
36% for Clinton
24% for Obama
12% for Edwards
Hillary’s lead over Barack has halved in little over a month! Why the shift? It’s a change among black respondents. Here’s the Post:
Clinton’s and Obama’s support among white voters changed little since December, but the shifts among black Democrats were dramatic. In December and January Post-ABC News polls, Clinton led Obama among African Americans by 60 percent to 20 percent. In the new poll, Obama held a narrow advantage among blacks, 44 percent to 33 percent.
By the way, here’s some stunning info about the Republican side of things.
In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.
The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.
The real question on the Republican side is whether the conservative base simply doesn’t know about Rudy’s social positions (in which case a Republican primary will not treat Rudy well), or if it chooses to overlook them because of the heroism he displayed on 9/11. A really good discussion of that issue, and an illustration of how Rudy still flogs 9/11 to death on the campaign trail, can be found in the cover story of the most recent issue of New York magazine.
And PS – I know that this is silly horserace coverage. You’re bound to find some of it here on MoJoBlog over the next months/years, but you’ll find a lot more on the Mother Jones News and Politics page. That’s our designated place for delicious coverage of the 2008 campaigns; the magazine and the homepage of the website will always be the place for serious, weighty, (BORING!) issue-based journalism.