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Drone Warfare Isn't Cheap, and it Isn't Targeted

The idea that drones can make war better is part of a longstanding myth about air power.

| Mon Mar. 25, 2013 2:25 PM PDT

Yet, contrary to the dreams of air power advocates, Germany's will to resist remained unbroken. The vaunted second front of aerial battle became yet another bloody attritional brawl, with hundreds of thousands of civilians joining scores of thousands of aircrews in death.

Similarly mauled but unbroken by bombing was Japan, despite an air campaign of relentless intensity that killed hundreds of thousands of Japanese civilians. Planned and directed by Major General Curtis LeMay, new B-29 bombers loaded with incendiaries struck Tokyo, a city made largely of wood, in March 1945, creating a firestorm that in his words "scorched and boiled and baked [the Japanese] to death." As many as 100,000 Japanese died in this attack.

Subsequently, 60 more cities were firebombed until the apotheosis of destruction came that August as atomic bombs incinerated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing another 200,000 people. It quickly became an article of faith among American air power enthusiasts that these bombs had driven Japan to surrender; together with this, the "decisive" air campaign against Germany became reason enough to justify an independent US Air Force, which was created by the National Security Act of 1947.

In the total war against Nazi and Japanese terror, moral concerns, when expressed, came privately. General Ira Eaker worried that future generations might condemn the Allied bombing campaign against Germany for its targeting of "the man in the street." Even LeMay, not known for introspective doubts, worried in 1945 that he and his team would likely be tried as war criminals if the US failed to defeat Japan. (So Robert McNamara, then an Army Air Force officer working for LeMay, recalled in the documentary The Fog of War.)

But moral qualms were put aside in the post-war glow of victory and as the fear rose of future battles with communism. The Korean War (1950-1953) may have ushered in the jet age, as symbolized by the dogfights of American Sabre Jets and Soviet MiGs over the Yalu River, but it also witnessed the devastation by bombing of North Korea, even as the enemy took cover underground and refused to do what air power strategists had always assumed they would: give up.

Still, for the US Air Force, the real action of that era lay largely in the realm of dystopian fantasies as it created the Strategic Air Command (SAC), which coordinated two legs of the nuclear triad, land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles in silos and nuclear-armed long-range bombers. (The third was nuclear-missile-armed submarines.) SAC kept some of those bombers carrying thermonuclear weapons in the air 24/7 as a "deterrent" to a Soviet nuclear first strike (and as a constant first strike threat of our own). "Thinking about the unthinkable"—that is, nuclear Armageddon—became all the rage, with "massive retaliation" serving as the byword for air power enthusiasts. In this way, dreams of clean victories morphed into nightmares of global thermonuclear annihilation, leaving the 1930s air power ideal of "clean" and "surgical" strikes in the dust—for the time being.

Reaping What We Sow

Despite an unimaginably powerful nuclear deterrent that essentially couldn't be used, the US Air Force had to relearn the hard way that there remained limits to the efficacy of air power, especially when applied to low-intensity, counterinsurgency wars. As in Korea in the 1950s, air power in the 1960s and 1970s failed to provide the winning edge in the Vietnam War, even as it spread wanton destruction throughout the Vietnamese countryside. But it was the arrival of "smart" bombs near that war's end that marked the revival of the fantasies of air power enthusiasts about "precision bombing" as the path to future victory.

By the 1990s, laser- and GPS-guided bombs (known collectively as PGMs, for precision guided munitions) were relegating unguided, "dumb" bombs largely to the past. Yet like their predecessors, PGMs proved no panacea. In the opening stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, for example, 50 precision "decapitation strikes" targeting dictator Saddam Hussein's top leadership failed to hit any of their intended targets, while causing "dozens" of civilian deaths. That same year, air power's inability to produce decisive results on the ground after Iraq's descent into chaos, insurrection, and civil war served as a reminder that the vaunted success of the US air campaign in the First Gulf War (1991) was a fluke, not a flowering of air power's maturity. (Saddam Hussein made his traditionally organized military, defenseless against air power, occupy static positions after his invasion of Kuwait.)

The recent marriage of PGMs to drones, hailed as the newest "perfect weapon" in the air arsenal, has once again led to the usual fantasies about the arrival—finally, almost 100 years late—of clean, precise, and decisive war. Using drones, a military need not risk even a pilot's life in its attacks. Yet the nature of war—its horrors, its unpredictability, its tendency to outlive its original causes—remains fundamentally unaltered by "precision" drone strikes. War's inherent fog and friction persist. In the case of drones, that fog is often generated by faulty intelligence, the friction by malfunctioning weaponry or innocent civilians appearing just as the Hellfire missiles are unleashed. Rather than clean wars of decision, drone strikes decide nothing. Instead, they produce their share of "collateral damage" that only spawns new enemies seeking revenge.

The fantasy of air war as a realm of technical decision, as an exercise in decisively finding, fixing, and dispatching the enemy, appeals to a country like the United States that idolizes technology as a way to quick fixes. As a result, it's hardly surprising that two administrations in Washington have ever more zealously pursued drone wars and aerial global assassination campaigns, already killing 4,700 "terrorists" and bystanders. And this has been just part of our Nobel Peace Prize-winning president's campaign of 20,000 air strikes (only 10% of which were drone strikes) in his first term of office. Yet despite—or perhaps because of—these attacks, our global war against al-Qaeda, its affiliates, and other groups like the Taliban appears no closer to ending.

And that is, in part, because the dream of air power remains just that: a fantasy, a capricious and destructive will-o'-the-wisp. It's a fantasy because it denies agency to enemies (and others) who invariably find ways to react, adapt, and strike back. It's a fantasy because, however much such attacks seem both alluringly low-risk and high-reward to the US military, they become a rallying cause for those on the other end of the bombs and missiles.

A much-quoted line from the movie Apocalypse Now captured the insanity of the American air war in Vietnam. "I love the smell of napalm in the morning," says an Air Cav commander played by Robert Duvall. "Smelled like... victory." Updated for drone warfare, this line might read: "I love the sound of drones in the morning. Sounds like... victory." But will we say the same when armed drones are hovering, not only above our enemies' heads but above ours, too, in fortress America, enforcing security and conformity while smiting citizens judged to be rebellious?

Something tells me this is not the dream that airpower enthusiasts had in mind.

William J. Astore, a retired lieutenant colonel (USAF) and professor of history, is a TomDispatch regular. He welcomes reader comments at wjastore@gmail.com.

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