2011 - %3, May

Media Duped by Limbaugh's Phony Obama Praise

| Mon May 2, 2011 3:50 PM EDT

It was too good—nay, too impossible—to be true.

A number of media outlets today seized on comments made by Rush Limbaugh in which the king of conservative talk radio appeared to praise President Barack Obama for his leadership in the killing of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan on Sunday. "Rush Limbaugh: 'Thank God for President Obama,'" read a headline at Politico, which went on to report that "Limbaugh credited the president with the strategy that led to the killing of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden." In a post titled "And Hell Freezes Over," Andrew Sullivan at the Daily Beast noted Limbaugh's "going out of his way to celebrate Obama's singular role" in the bin Laden assassination. And the site Mediaite wrote that "Limbaugh opened his show today with huge praise for his President, his military, and his country. That’s right, folks. America can still get along."

Well, not quite. At first listen, Limbaugh does in fact sound like he's praising Obama for being the leader who "single-handedly came up with the technique in order to pull this off." But then you remember: This is Rush Limbaugh, people. That's not praise; it's sarcasm at its very thickest. Here's the video of Limbaugh's remarks with an excerpt below it:

"You see, the military wanted to go in there and bomb as they always do. They wanted to drop missiles and drop bombs and a number of totally destructive techniques here. But President Obama, perhaps the only qualified member in the room to deal with this, insisted on the Special Forces. No one else thought of that. President Obama. Not a single intelligence adviser, not a single national security adviser, not a single military adviser came up with the idea of using SEAL Team 6 or any Special Forces."

Limbaugh's not lauding Obama's role here. He's mocking it. If you're still not convinced, listen to Limbaugh's reaction later in the day upon reading the reports citing his praise of the president, per Media Matters:

The guy can't stop laughing. Even if hell had frozen over, Rush Limbaugh would still find a way to bash Obama for it.

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The Top Media Policy Stories of the Week

| Mon May 2, 2011 2:53 PM EDT

The proposed AT&T/T-Mobile merger continues to dominate media policy headlines, but the wireless merger isn't the only game in town. AOL's recent buyout of the Huffington Post has raised intellectual property issues, rural communities still lack speedy broadband access, and a proposed Verizon antenna in Oakland has come under fire by neighborhood activists.

AT&T an Underdog?

Telecommunications giant AT&T is many things, and an underdog in need of federal assistance isn't one of them. Yet Colorlines.com's Jamilah King says that's exactly how the company is portraying itself in its proposed $39 billion dollar takeover of T-Mobile.

In its official filing with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), King reports, "AT&T spends nearly 90 pages describing T-Mobile's weaknesses, while detailing the roadblocks it says it'll face if federal regulators don't green light the deal." If federal regulators block the deal, AT&T argues, its customers "would face a greater number of blocked and dropped calls as well as less reliable and slower data connections. And in some markets, AT&T's customers would be left without access to more advanced technologies."

Osama Bin Laden Is Dead

| Mon May 2, 2011 1:46 PM EDT
Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda and the mastermind of the September 11 attacks, was killed on Sunday in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda and the mastermind of the September 11th attacks, was killed on Sunday in Pakistan. Here's what we know so far.

Where was Bin Laden killed? He was killed in a "compound near Abbottabad," which is a relatively wealthy city of about one million people about 150 km north of Pakistan's capital of Islamabad.

How did he die?  The operation was a "surgical strike" by a small US team that entered by helicopter. The team was in the compound for under 40 minutes. Bin Laden was killed in a firefight and US forces took his body with them when they left. Early reports suggested that Bin Laden was shot in the head, but the White House has not confirmed that detail. NBC has reported that he was shot in the left eye. According to ABC, he was shot a second time to make sure he was dead.

Who killed him? In a background briefing, senior administration officials declined to say whether the operation was military or non-military (e.g., CIA). But the buzz elsewhere is that this was a military operation executed by the Naval Special Warfare Development Group (NSWDG or DEVGRU), once known as SEAL Team Six. It's the special counterterror operations group of the naval special operations community. The SEALS were reportedly under the command of the Joint Special Operations Command and carried out the operation with the help of the CIA. "In all, 79 commandos and a dog were involved in the raid," according to the New York Times.

Were there eyewitnesses to the raid? Abu Dhabi's The National newspaper reports that witnesses in Abbottabad awoke around 12:45 am local time on Sunday to the sounds of explosions coming from a house in the suburb of Bilal Town, and saw three helicopters firing on the bin Laden compound. The shooting ended around 2:00 am. "We watched as one of the helicopters was shot down and exploded when it hit the ground," said Ehtesham-ul-Haq, 30, a businessman who watched from his home.

The National also reports that top members of Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban currently hiding out in Pakistan are preparing to flee the country, according to a Karachi-based militant source. "Right now, the priority is safety. All leading figures will be constantly on the move, not staying at one location for more than 15 minutes," said the source, who added that they will eventually return to Afghanistan.

The Arabic news network Al-Arabiya says bin Laden's twelve-year-old daughter witnessed his death.

How did we find him? The US began hunting some suspected Bin Laden couriers over four years ago. Eventually, US officials became aware of the compound in Abottabad. The compound was eight times the size of the surrounding houses, and it had huge walls that were so high that people on the third floor still had seven-foot walls shielding them from outside view. The occupants burned all their trash (not a common local practice) and didn't have any phone or internet access. There were signs that a family matching the size of the Bin Laden clan was living there in secret. The courier who was living there with his brother had no discernible source of income, another tip-off for US intelligence.

Did Bin Laden fight back? Senior administration officials said Bin Laden "resisted" but would not say if he used any weapon in doing so. According to ABC, "Bin Laden himself fired his weapon during the fight" and "was asked to surrender but did not." White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan told journalists Monday, "There was a female who was in fact in the line of fire...to shield bin Laden from the gunfire," adding that it spoke to "the nature of the individual." But on Wednesday, White House press secretary Jay Carney changed the story, saying that though bin Laden put up a fight, he was unarmed.

How long was he hiding in the compound? The compound was custom-built about five years ago to hide "someone of significance," according to a senior administration official. Based on the location given by the New York Times, the compound is located less than a mile from the parade ground of the Pakistan Miltary Academy, "Pakistan's West Point," whose graduates include former President Pervez Musharraf. (The spot in central Abbottabad identified as "Osama bin Laden's compound" on Google Maps is not correct.) Here's video of what could be the compound burning:

And here's video from ABC News taken inside the compound:

 

Who knew the raid was coming? The intelligence about the compound was not shared with any other country, including Pakistan. Only a very small number of people within the US government knew of the raid.

How was he able to hide so long undetected? There are good reasons why we didn't tell the Pakistanis. The New Yorker's Steve Coll, a bona fide AfPak/bin Laden expert, has an excellent post on the killing. He says the evidence suggests that "bin Laden was effectively being housed under Pakistani state control." Read the whole thing.

Was anyone else killed in the raid? No Americans were killed. Three adult males besides Bin Laden were killed in the raid, reportedly including one of Bin Laden's sons. One woman was killed when she was used as a human shield and another woman was injured. One helicopter was lost to mechanical failure and destroyed on the spot, according to the White House. Given that, this story from the Pakistani newspaper Dawn seems super-interesting. One resident who heard the commotion of the raid tweeted, "A huge window shaking bang here…I hope its [sic] not the start of something nasty."

Was anyone captured? Early reports suggested that a number of members of bin Laden's family were captured in the attack. National Journal's Marc Ambinder originally reported that a total of 22 people were "captured or killed"—which would indicate that US forces captured as many as 17 people—but he now says 22 people were "counted." (He says his sources changed their story.)

Where is Bin Laden's body? A US official says bin Laden's body has been buried at sea, reports the Associated Press. Politico's Mike Allen says the burial happened "less than 12 hours" after bin Laden was killed. CBS News reports that the sea burial occurred after Saudi Arabia refused to take the body. Senior administration officials had promised that his body would be handled according to Islamic practice, which requires a quick burial. "Finding a country willing to accept the remains of the world's most wanted terrorist would have been difficult, the official said. So the US decided to bury him at sea." The official did not immediately say where that occurred. The Guardian reports that some Islamic scholars are saying that sea burials are not generally permitted under Islamic law. John Brennan, the president's top counterterrorism adviser, said in a White House briefing Monday that potential burial scenarios had been weighed and planned for months.

How do we know it was him? Multiple reports say that the US has DNA confirmation.

Wait, we had Bin Laden's DNA? Actually, according to ABC's Brian Ross, the US had DNA from Bin Laden's sister, who died of brain cancer in Boston several years ago.

Are there pictures from the compound? The Pentagon released some in a briefing Monday morning. Here's a schematic of the compound:

And some aerial shots:

How long has this been planned? President Obama reportedly asked for a plan to take out bin Laden back in June 2009. In August 2010, US intelligence learned about the location of the compound. The attack has been planned for months and the special forces involved practiced extensively. National Journal's Yochi Dreazen says that SEALS "built a full-scale mockup of bin Ladin's compound and spent weeks practicing the raid and learning layout." Politico's Allen says "The SEALs held rehearsals of the raid on April 7 and April 13, with officials monitoring the action from Washington." Josh Rogin at Foreign Policy and Aamer Madhani at National Journal have each posted a rundown of what was known about the operation as of Sunday night. According to Rogin, the meetings Obama convened with his national security team concerning the operation were held on March 14, March 29, April 12, April 19, and April 28. And Rogin breaks down the the chain of events from over the weekend that led to the final go-ahead: 

The final decision to go forward with the operation was made at 8:20 AM on Friday, April 29 in the White House's Diplomatic Room. In the room at the time were [national security adviser Tom] Donilon, his deputy Denis McDonough, and counterterrorism advisor John Brennan. Donilon prepared the formal orders.

On Sunday, Obama went to play golf in the morning at Andrews Air Force Base. He played 9 holes in chilly, rainy weather and spent a little time on the driving range, as well. Meanwhile, the principals were assembling in the situation room at the White House. They were there from 1:00 PM and stayed put for the rest of the day.

At 2:00, Obama met with the principals back at the White House. At 3:32 he went to the situation room for another briefing. At 3:50 he was told that bin Laden was "tentatively identified." At 7:01 Obama was told there was a "high probability" the high value target at the compound was bin Laden. At 8:30 Obama got the final briefing.

Before speaking to the nation, Obama called former presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

Who was in the know during the raid? Allen has the details:

Obama monitored the operation all day from the Situation Room, surrounded by Donilon, White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley, Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough, Secretary of State Clinton, Secretary of Defense Gates, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, and others. [CIA Director Leon] Panetta was at CIA headquarters, where he had turned his conference room into a command center that gave him constant contact with the tactical leaders of the strike team.

Who's Bin Laden's successor? The short answer is: no one. Bin Laden's number two is Ayman al-Zawahiri, but he does not command the same following or loyalty as the late Al Qaeda leader. According to the New Yorker's Lawrence Wright, author of the definitive history of Al Qaeda, Zawahiri "has few of the qualities that would make for a successful leader. He’s anti-charismatic. He ran his own Egyptian terror organization, al-Jihad, into the ground." Also on the shortlist is Anwar al-Awlaki, the US born cleric who's now in hiding in Yemen (and who apparently inspired the Underwear bomber and the Fort Hood shooter). But compared to Bin Laden, as Al Qaeda expert Peter Bergen put it on CNN, al-Awlaki's a "dwarf."

Are we worried about potential retaliation? US military bases around the world are on high alert in case of retaliation. The government has been preparing for this eventuality for a long time. The US has not heard of any specific retaliation threats against any specific targets. In a statement to agency employees, outgoing CIA director Leon Panetta said: "The terrorists almost certainly will attempt to avenge him, and we must—and will—remain vigilant and resolute."

What are Islamists/conservatives/active-duty soldiers saying about Bin Laden's death? Check in with all of them here.

What does former President George W. Bush think? Here's his statement.

Here's President Obama's speech:

Good evening. Tonight, I can report to the American people and to the world that the United States has conducted an operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, and a terrorist who’s responsible for the murder of thousands of innocent men, women, and children.

It was nearly 10 years ago that a bright September day was darkened by the worst attack on the American people in our history. The images of 9/11 are seared into our national memory -- hijacked planes cutting through a cloudless September sky; the Twin Towers collapsing to the ground; black smoke billowing up from the Pentagon; the wreckage of Flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, where the actions of heroic citizens saved even more heartbreak and destruction.

And yet we know that the worst images are those that were unseen to the world. The empty seat at the dinner table. Children who were forced to grow up without their mother or their father. Parents who would never know the feeling of their child’s embrace. Nearly 3,000 citizens taken from us, leaving a gaping hole in our hearts.

On September 11, 2001, in our time of grief, the American people came together. We offered our neighbors a hand, and we offered the wounded our blood. We reaffirmed our ties to each other, and our love of community and country. On that day, no matter where we came from, what God we prayed to, or what race or ethnicity we were, we were united as one American family.

We were also united in our resolve to protect our nation and to bring those who committed this vicious attack to justice. We quickly learned that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by al Qaeda -- an organization headed by Osama bin Laden, which had openly declared war on the United States and was committed to killing innocents in our country and around the globe. And so we went to war against al Qaeda to protect our citizens, our friends, and our allies.

Over the last 10 years, thanks to the tireless and heroic work of our military and our counterterrorism professionals, we’ve made great strides in that effort. We’ve disrupted terrorist attacks and strengthened our homeland defense. In Afghanistan, we removed the Taliban government, which had given bin Laden and al Qaeda safe haven and support. And around the globe, we worked with our friends and allies to capture or kill scores of al Qaeda terrorists, including several who were a part of the 9/11 plot.

Yet Osama bin Laden avoided capture and escaped across the Afghan border into Pakistan. Meanwhile, al Qaeda continued to operate from along that border and operate through its affiliates across the world.

And so shortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta, the director of the CIA, to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network.

Then, last August, after years of painstaking work by our intelligence community, I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden. It was far from certain, and it took many months to run this thread to ground. I met repeatedly with my national security team as we developed more information about the possibility that we had located bin Laden hiding within a compound deep inside of Pakistan. And finally, last week, I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action, and authorized an operation to get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice.

Today, at my direction, the United States launched a targeted operation against that compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan. A small team of Americans carried out the operation with extraordinary courage and capability. No Americans were harmed. They took care to avoid civilian casualties. After a firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body.

For over two decades, bin Laden has been al Qaeda’s leader and symbol, and has continued to plot attacks against our country and our friends and allies. The death of bin Laden marks the most significant achievement to date in our nation’s effort to defeat al Qaeda.

Yet his death does not mark the end of our effort. There’s no doubt that al Qaeda will continue to pursue attacks against us. We must –- and we will -- remain vigilant at home and abroad.

As we do, we must also reaffirm that the United States is not –- and never will be -– at war with Islam. I’ve made clear, just as President Bush did shortly after 9/11, that our war is not against Islam. Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader; he was a mass murderer of Muslims. Indeed, al Qaeda has slaughtered scores of Muslims in many countries, including our own. So his demise should be welcomed by all who believe in peace and human dignity.

Over the years, I’ve repeatedly made clear that we would take action within Pakistan if we knew where bin Laden was. That is what we’ve done. But it’s important to note that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound where he was hiding. Indeed, bin Laden had declared war against Pakistan as well, and ordered attacks against the Pakistani people.

Tonight, I called President Zardari, and my team has also spoken with their Pakistani counterparts. They agree that this is a good and historic day for both of our nations. And going forward, it is essential that Pakistan continue to join us in the fight against al Qaeda and its affiliates.

The American people did not choose this fight. It came to our shores, and started with the senseless slaughter of our citizens. After nearly 10 years of service, struggle, and sacrifice, we know well the costs of war. These efforts weigh on me every time I, as Commander-in-Chief, have to sign a letter to a family that has lost a loved one, or look into the eyes of a service member who’s been gravely wounded.

So Americans understand the costs of war. Yet as a country, we will never tolerate our security being threatened, nor stand idly by when our people have been killed. We will be relentless in defense of our citizens and our friends and allies. We will be true to the values that make us who we are. And on nights like this one, we can say to those families who have lost loved ones to al Qaeda’s terror: Justice has been done.

Tonight, we give thanks to the countless intelligence and counterterrorism professionals who’ve worked tirelessly to achieve this outcome. The American people do not see their work, nor know their names. But tonight, they feel the satisfaction of their work and the result of their pursuit of justice.

We give thanks for the men who carried out this operation, for they exemplify the professionalism, patriotism, and unparalleled courage of those who serve our country. And they are part of a generation that has borne the heaviest share of the burden since that September day.

Finally, let me say to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11 that we have never forgotten your loss, nor wavered in our commitment to see that we do whatever it takes to prevent another attack on our shores.

And tonight, let us think back to the sense of unity that prevailed on 9/11. I know that it has, at times, frayed. Yet today’s achievement is a testament to the greatness of our country and the determination of the American people.

The cause of securing our country is not complete. But tonight, we are once again reminded that America can do whatever we set our mind to. That is the story of our history, whether it’s the pursuit of prosperity for our people, or the struggle for equality for all our citizens; our commitment to stand up for our values abroad, and our sacrifices to make the world a safer place.

Let us remember that we can do these things not just because of wealth or power, but because of who we are: one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

Thank you. May God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.

Here's a transcript of a background conference call held by senior administration officials just minutes after President Obama’s announcement of Bin Laden's death. An excerpt:

[W]ithout a doubt, the United States will continue to face terrorist threats. The United States will continue to fight those threats. We have always understood that this fight would be a marathon and not a sprint.

There's also no doubt that the death of Osama bin Laden marks the single greatest victory in the U.S.-led campaign to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda. It is a major and essential step in bringing about al Qaeda’s eventual destruction.

Bin Laden was al Qaeda’s only (inaudible) commander in its 22-year history, and was largely responsible for the organization’s mystique, its attraction among violent jihadists, and its focus on America as a terrorist target.

The New America Foundation's Peter Bergen and Steve Coll—who literally wrote the books on the bin Ladens—held a conference call for reporters Monday afternoon. Among the questions asked and topics discussed:

Ultimately, did the policies of the Bush administration deliver bin Laden? Coll remains curious about the extent to which Bush-era interrogation policies bred the intelligence that led to the killing of bin Laden. He pointed out that the information could have come from multiple interrogations of several detainees held at Guantanomo Bay, and that it's entirely unclear whether any of it came as a result torture. "I suspect we'll get more clarity about that as time goes along," Coll speculated.

Where are the pictures? Bergen is convinced that pictures of bin Laden's dead body exist, and noted that post mortem photos of past high value targets—like Uday and Kusay, the sons of Saddam Hussein—send a commanding message to their allies and enemies alike. Bergen predicted that the pictures will be released eventually.

How does this recast the US' relationship with Pakistan? In the wake of the Raymond Davis episode, the Pakistani government demanded that the United States withdraw all its covert operatives from within its borders; such an extraction would, inevitably, have substantially weakened the United States' ability to conduct the sort of unilateral mission that it executed on Sunday.

Coll stressed that there's much more than meets the eye to the Davis episode, and said that he has a pretty good guess as to what actually went down (but he refuses to speculate until he has more facts). "If what I understand to have taken place took place, it will provide context for this" operation, he said.

But he cautioned against concluding that the Davis affair and the bin Laden raid are in any way causally related. Given that the US was preparing to embark on perhaps its most ambitious secret mission ever, he said, it "makes sense that they would be stubborn about resisting changes in the paradigm" that could have hindered its plans.

Bergen, meanwhile, thinks that the operation "provide[d] a possibility for a reset of this terrible Pakistan/America relationship," and could result in dialed down drone activity along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. 

Army Vet: This Is Why I Signed Up (VIDEO)

| Mon May 2, 2011 1:25 PM EDT

Ret. Sgt. Evan Cole enlisted the Army when he was a 17-year-old Michigan high school student in 2001. He got out of Walter Reed Naval Hospital three months ago. He has a six-inch scar on his right leg to go with injuries to his hand and his head from his tour in Ramadi. He made up his mind to join the army after the watched the Twin Towers fall in his geography class. Cole was one of thousands of revelers who gathered in front of the White House late last night and stayed well into the early hours of the morning to celebrate the death of Osama Bin Laden.

"In the last few years, it seemed like nobody even cared, like what we did over there in Iraq; nobody even talks about it anymore. It is so amazing to see so many people out here wearing red, white, and blue," Cole said. "See, that's what we were over there for—it's these people!"

Jena Passut, a writer at a trade publication in Fairfax, Virginia, was in tears when I talked to her. She had just met a man whose son had died in combat. "I really thought we would get Bin Laden but wouldn't see the body. They would just announce it." Her friend, Erin Dallas, echoed the thoughts of many in attendance: "Part of me thinks it's wrong that we're celebrating that somebody was killed, but we're celebrating because it's a relief."

Does Torture Work?

| Mon May 2, 2011 1:08 PM EDT

Tyler Cowen on the news that the intelligence that eventually led to the raid on Osama bin Laden's hideout may have been the result of torturing detainees at Guantanamo:

I have never been pro-Guantánamo, or for that matter pro-torture [], but I am willing to report results which may run counter to my views. The moral and the practical do not always coincide, and perhaps we should be celebrating just a bit less. It is possible this is not a totally “clean” victory on our part.

This is one of the reasons that I think it's important not to put too much emphasis on practical arguments against torture. After all, if the reason you oppose torture is because torture doesn't work, then you'd better be prepared to change your mind if it turns out that torture does work. I'm not willing to do that.

The obvious counterfactual here is that although torture might have produced actionable information that eventually helped locate bin Laden, perhaps we could have gotten the same information another way. And maybe so. But I doubt that this kind of abstract argument has much impact on most people. The fact is that torture probably does work in some cases, and if you oppose it, you need to oppose it even so.

Hard Keynesianism is Hard

| Mon May 2, 2011 12:36 PM EDT

Paul Krugman:

If you’re a serious Keynesian, you’re for maintaining and even increasing spending when the economy is depressed, even though revenue has plunged; but you’re for fiscal restraint when the economy is booming, even though revenue has increased.

In other words, you want to (roughly) balance the budget over the course of an economic cycle, running a surplus during the expansionary phase and a deficit during the recessionary phase.

Obviously there are technical disputes about whether this is the right way to manage the macroeconomy. But in a way, it hardly matters. In the same way that real Christianity is simply too hard for mere mortals to practice (thus the need for a merciful God), so is hard Keynesianism. In the real world, you're just never going to be able to persuade people to demonstrate the fiscal restraint that Keynesianism requires during boom times. And if, in the real world, Keynesianism is too difficult for human beings to practice during the 80% of the economic cycle taken up by expansion, then it's not much good. Economics, after all, doesn't feature a notably merciful God.

I don't know if anyone has ever proposed a feasible way to overcome this problem.

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Election Speculation

| Mon May 2, 2011 12:05 PM EDT

So does the killing of Osama bin Laden help Barack Obama's reelection chances? I doubt it. I'm not an economic fundamentalist when it comes to presidential elections — too many people read those economic models and forget the part where the authors explain that their model only explains about two-thirds of the variance — but it's still the case that economic conditions account for most of a president's chances of reelection. What's more, the election is still 18 months away. Even if bin Laden's death could play a role, there's no way it would continue to have much impact a year and a half from now.

But there are at least two ways in which bin Laden's death could still make a difference. First, the quality of opposition matters, and GOP contenders are making their campaign decisions now, not 18 months from now. It's possible that yesterday's news will tip a few high-quality candidates against running in 2012, and this would obviously make Obama's job easier.

The other way it could matter is a bit more subtle: bin Laden's death could, conceivably, lead to changes in U.S. foreign policy that make Obama's reelection more likely. Perhaps we'll now feel free to take a harder line with Pakistan. Perhaps Obama will be more aggressive about drawing down troops in Afghanistan. Perhaps al-Qaeda really will disintegrate somewhat after bin Laden's death and this will lead to further U.S. victories closer to the election.

Obviously this is all very speculative. But I guess that's what blogs are for. So feel free to speculate away in comments.

"Pakistan is the AIG of Nation States."

| Mon May 2, 2011 11:48 AM EDT

Steve Coll on Pakistan's role in keeping Osama bin Laden safe in a suburban mansion for half a decade:

It stretches credulity to think that a mansion of that scale could have been built and occupied by bin Laden for six years without it coming to the attention of anyone in Pakistan’s Army.

The initial circumstantial evidence suggests the opposite is more likely—that bin Laden was effectively being housed under Pakistani state control. Pakistan will deny this, it seems safe to predict, and perhaps no convincing evidence will ever surface to prove the case. If I were a prosecutor at the United States Department of Justice, however, I would be tempted to call a grand jury. 

....Outside of the Justice Department, other sections of the United States government will probably underplay any evidence about culpability by the Pakistani state or sections of the state, such as its intelligence service, I.S.I., in sheltering bin Laden. As ever, there are many other fish to fry in Islamabad and at the Army headquarters in nearby Rawalpindi: An exit strategy from Afghanistan, which requires the greatest possible degree of cooperation from Pakistan that can be attained at a reasonable price; nuclear stability, and so on.

Pakistan’s military and intelligence service takes risks that others would not dare take because Pakistan’s generals believe their nuclear deterrent keeps them safe from regime change of the sort underway in Libya, and because they have discovered over the years that the rest of the world sees them as too big to fail. Unfortunately, they probably are correct in their analysis; some countries, like some investment banks, do pose systemic risks so great that they are too big to fail, and Pakistan is currently the A.I.G. of nation-states. But that should not stop American prosecutors from following the law here as they would whenever any mass killer’s hideout is discovered.

More at the link.

Osama bin Laden Killed: The White House Background Report

| Mon May 2, 2011 8:05 AM EDT

Here's the transcript of an off-the-record conference call held by senior administration officials—and moderated by White House press aide Tommy Vietor—minutes after President Barack Obama announced that Osama bin Laden had been killed by US special forces:

MR. VIETOR:  Thank you, everyone, for joining us, especially so late.  We wanted to get you on the line quickly with some senior administration officials to talk about the operation today regarding Osama bin Laden.  And with that I’ll turn it over to our first senior administration official.

SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL:  Thanks for joining us, everybody, at this late hour.  It’s much appreciated.  From the outset of the administration, the President has placed the highest priority in protecting the nation from the threat of terrorism.  In line with this, we have pursued an intensified, targeted, and global effort to degrade and defeat al Qaeda.  Included in this effort has been a relentless set of steps that we’ve taken to locate and bring Osama bin Laden to justice.  Indeed, in the earliest days of the administration, the President formally instructed the intelligence community and his counterterrorism advisors to make the pursuit of Osama bin Laden, as the leader of al Qaeda, as a top priority.

In the beginning of September of last year, the CIA began to work with the President on a set of assessments that led it to believe that in fact it was possible that Osama bin Laden may be located at a compound in Pakistan.  By mid-February, through a series of intensive meetings at the White House and with the President, we had determined there was a sound intelligence basis for pursuing this in an aggressive way and developing courses of action to pursue Osama bin Laden at this location.

In the middle of March, the President began a series of National Security Council meetings that he chaired to pursue again the intelligence basis and to develop courses of action to bring justice to Osama bin Laden.  Indeed, by my count, the President chaired no fewer than five National Security Council meetings on the topic from the middle of March -- March 14th, March 29th, April 12th, April 19th, and April 28th.  And the President gave the final order to pursue the operation that he announced to the nation tonight on the morning -- Friday morning of April 29th.

The President mentioned tonight that the pursuit of Osama bin Laden and the defeat of al Qaeda has been a bipartisan exercise in this nation since September 11, 2001, and indeed, this evening before he spoke to the nation, President Obama did speak to President Bush 43 and President Clinton this evening to review with them the events of today and to preview his statement to the nation tonight.

And with that, I’ll turn it over to my colleague to go through some of the details.  Thank you.

[See the jump for the rest--including details of the intelligence operation that led to the raid.]

Tiempo Libre: From a Rooftop to the Big Stage

| Mon May 2, 2011 7:00 AM EDT

It all started with a coat hanger: "If they catch you, you have to pay," says Jorge Gomez. "We made our own antenna. We listened to everything." This isn't a description of a secret espionage effort. It's the story of how a Cuban teenager and his friends—now members of Gomez's timba band, Tiempo Libre—fell in love with American music. They rigged up a makeshift radio using a friend's military-issue guidebook and frequency map, the hanger, and some cable. This allowed them to listen to music banned during Cuba's "Special Period."

But catching Miami radio waves from their moonlit Havana rooftop wasn't the kids' only form of subversion. Many a night was dedicated to recording the songs of Michael Jackson; Earth, Wind, & Fire; Chaka Khan; and Gloria Estefan. "We recorded by night, and then in the morning we made parties. We had a six-hour recording," Gomez reminisces. "When there is a good thing, we don't sleep for days."

The island's weather didn't stop them either: "Some weeks, you would have the wind blow and be recording in the middle of a very huge shower in rain with an umbrella," he adds.

The three-time Grammy-nominated band eventually made it to Miami, where the musicians immediately feel at home among all the Cuban expats. "You can go anywhere and there is a Cuban. So you are living in Cuba with everything, but with no ‘Special Period,'" says Gomez. He admits there are some things he misses from home, like gossiping and playing dominoes in the old neighborhood, "the smell of the city," and the ability to just kick back. "Here it is only work, work, work," he laments.