In The Blogs

Five-Foot Sea Level Rise to Hit San Francisco by 2100

—Photo courtesy Pacific Institute.

The Chronicle ain't the only thing sinking in San Francisco. According to a new report commissioned by the state, the city will likely be 5' lower in the Bay by the end of the century.

The global warming-driven rise in sea levels will cause $100 billion in property damage, the report says, and put 480,000 people at risk of a "100-year flood event" if no actions are taken. $100 billion sounds substantial (actually, given the bank bailouts, maybe not so much) but the impact of an additional 5' of water really hits home when you see how much of land could slip beneath the waves.

The Pacific Institute, who conducted the study for the state, has a
nifty online map showing exactly which areas would be at risk. With just a 5' rise, SFO airport, Alameda, parts of Silicon Valley, and the foot of the San Mateo bridge are all at increased risk for being nearly totally flooded. Ocean Beach, site of political protests, would be just ocean. In fact, if the waters keep rising as expected, and if "100-year flood events" keep increasing in frequency, the Pacific could invade Golden Gate Park 500 meters at one point, swamping its historic, water-pumping windmills and encroaching on endangered Western Snowy Plover habitat.

Of course, as in Katrina, the people suffering the most from the rising tides will be the poor. In San Francisco, the most dramatic water rise happens in the low-income, but developing, Hunter's Point neighborhood. Maybe the city can build that new Bay Bridge a little higher.

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#1 QUESTION: Have We Evolved Enough Yet To Save Ourselves?

Thanks for the heads up, and good news map for my area at least Jen. I live on Pt. Loma in San Diego and was beginning to wonder if Pt. Loma would become an island again anytime soon requiring me to at least put a rowboat in my garage. It appears that my view of the ocean will just keep getting better.

I very much appreciate the fact that MoJo has done the best job of any journal igniting, disturbing, and informing your readers on rapidly escalating consequences of continuously ignored climate changes for many years. But the years just keep passing by with no significant increases in stabilization wedges to even begin to reduce CO2 emissions enough to achieve Bill McKibben’s “350 Or Bust” goal.

It appears that we must first solve our fallibilities due to human nature. Ironically, a root cause of climate threats against humanity today is that about 200 years ago our inquisitive nature led to the development of machines that set homo sapiens on a whole new course of self determination far superior to that of all other animals on earth.

But today, in spite of all the excellent MoJo warnings, we are in the never-ending argument and accomplish nothing significant enough to prevent problems stage, another problem with human nature.

Let’s face it, we must stop arguing how much global warming is due to fossil fuel burning as opposed to natural earth forces that determine our environmental conditions and future quality of life, the fact of paramount importance today is that unacceptable consequences of climate change are occurring much more rapidly than scientists forecast even in the last few years and we must deal with it today. Sadly, scientists are arguing among themselves far too much, severely damaging their institutional credibility, which is another failure of human nature.

As MoJo has warned us many, many times, too many tipping points are accelerating beyond our control. At this point, the imperative is to adapt to these changes and consequences no matter what the cause.

A most important human nature question to focus on is will our creativity, population, resources and politics allow us to maintain an acceptable quality of life or will we allow chaos to control whatever future we have left?

Chaos will come from the fact that human nature has also produced moral values that shall most certainly be one most important factor in determining whether we produce the correct answer to a most important question asked during the 1992 Los Angeles riots when social chaos reigned supreme for six days: “Can we all get along?” The most dangerous human failure here is the fact that whether accelerating numbers of humans shall suffer poverty or not has become a question controlled by our political institutions, instead of moral institutions that have failed to deal with it for far too long.

The biggest “evolution” in our favor appears to be our ability to communicate instantly around the world to solve problems together, which seems to be the most important factor that will determine whether we are successful at saving and protecting an acceptable quality of life.

The reality is very simple, it appears that we still have choices and methods to prevent out of control worldwide chaos that will determine whether homo sapiens survive, or not if time runs out because too many environmental, social, political and economic tipping points topple.

In context with Darwin’s recent birthday celebration, our success in dealing with the consequences of changing climate will depend on whether we really have evolved far enough beyond the intelligence of chimpanzees, or not.

So I am left wondering, have the descendants of “Mitochondrial Eve” and “Nuclear Adam” evolved enough to save ourselves?

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NORC

Too bad, NORC is our dominant cultural value and the human race shall suffer greatly because of it as climate changes continue to change the planet in ways that shall make it increasingly difficult for Homo sapiens to survive because we just aren't evolving fast enough to protect us from ourselves.

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my god.. it's terrible! i

my god.. it's terrible! i don't know where people can go then..
thanks. you are the most intelligent person i ever met...

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it appears that we still

it appears that we still have choices and methods to prevent out of control worldwide chaos that will determine whether homo sapiens survive, or not if time runs out because too many environmental, social, political and economic tipping points topple.

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