The Future of Energy
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Put a Tyrant in Your Tank

You thought ExxonMobil was bad? Meet the new kings of crude.

Jeroen van der Veer is no pushover. The 60-year-old CEO stands out as a tough guy in an industry filled with them. In 2004, after taking the helm of Shell, the frugal, hawk-faced chief executive forced the $300 billion oil company through a painful restructuring. He borrowed a management model from his Dutch military days, deliberately holding strategy sessions in cramped rooms where his subordinates had to stand while their leader remained seated.

This tough demeanor was glaringly absent, however, when van der Veer met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in the winter of 2006. Shell had toiled for a decade to develop Sakhalin-2, a vast $22 billion oil and gas project on Russia's remote eastern coast, when Putin seized the reins and handed them off to Gazprom, the state energy concern. To retain a financial stake in the project, Shell reportedly had to pay the Kremlin a special dividend worth hundreds of millions of dollars annually. Yet in announcing the deal, the hard-assed CEO came off more like a cheerleader. "Thank you very much for your support," van der Veer gushed, addressing Putin as the two men stood together in an ornate Kremlin stateroom. "I think for us, the great news is there's now stability, so we can all work together."

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Groveling may not come naturally to guys like van der Veer, but they'd best get used to it. Soaring oil prices have emboldened Russia and other petrostates to stand up to Western execs and build up their own state-run petroleum operations. While some oil multinationals continue to haul in record profits, they're rapidly losing global clout, and with their holdings on the decline, executives have little choice but to grin and bear it. We're "seeing a further shifting in the oil industry in which national oil companies are the power brokers," says Andrew Neff, senior energy analyst at economic forecaster Global Insight.

Anyone inclined to celebrate Big Oil's recent misfortunes had better hold off on the champagne. For however badly the Western firms may have behaved, the new global oil barons could one day leave environmental and social activists nostalgic for the bad old days of ExxonMobil.

A decade ago, Western petroleum companies still ruled the world. To entice these firms to develop their oil resources, cash-strapped exporters such as Venezuela and Russia gave away the store. Fairly typical was the original Sakhalin-2 agreement, which let Shell recoup all the money it had put in before Russia earned a dime in oil revenues, and generous incentives from Caracas lured some 60 firms to Venezuela's oil sector during the 1990s.

Funny how a sevenfold price increase changes the game. Years of global terrorism, war in Afghanistan and the Middle East, rebel attacks in Nigeria, and assorted other mayhem recently helped oil broach $100 per barrel. Asian industrialization has done the rest: China, once able to produce all the crude it needed, is projected to import three-quarters of its petroleum by 2025, and consume half as much as the United States. The booming demand has transformed Russia from a pauper state into one that sits atop nearly $500 billion in liquid assets, while Iran, with the world's third-largest supply of crude, now earns record annual revenues from oil.

Bright Idea

Pay 'em not to drill Ecuadoran president Rafael Correa says his country will leave nearly a billion barrels of oil untapped in the Yasuní, a delicate stretch of rainforest, if rich nations pony up $4.6 billion—half of the expected revenues. Seems like a pump dream, yet Spain has committed $4 million, others are interested, and the Clinton Global Initiative has embraced the project. But even supporters fear betrayal, so Ecuador will issue certificates redeemable if the Yasuní is later exploited. Correa recently approved drilling in another sensitive area, but still, sitting on Ecuador's largest oil prospect would be truly historic.
Mark Engler and Nadia Martinez

Click here to see more Bright Ideas.

Big Oil, by contrast, faces a grim future. During the 1960s, multinationals such as Mobil, BP, and Shell had access to more than 80 percent of global oil and natural gas reserves. These days, Western multinationals control just 10 percent of the world's oil, while state-run firms, according to a November 2007 paper from Rice University's James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, exercise exclusive domain over roughly 77 percent. America's own oil production has been in a prolonged slide, and exploration prospects appear limited—Iraq, once the great Western hope, has barely recovered to prewar production levels.

The petrostates haven't been shy about wielding their power. In addition to negotiating the Shell coup, the Kremlin pushed British energy giant BP to sell its stake in Kovykta, a major Russian gas field. In spring 2007, Venezuela, which ranks seventh in oil reserves, took control of projects owned by foreign companies in the rich Orinoco Belt, a move that cost America's ConocoPhillips 10 percent of its oil holdings and nearly erased the firm's profits for that quarter. "They won't be missed," president Hugo Chávez said of the Westerners. In nearby Bolivia, president Evo Morales nationalized his oil and gas fields in 2006, and Ecuador has forced foreign firms to cough up more in taxes. "They understand the way energy markets have changed, and they're reinforced by Chávez's success," says Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit.

The state-run firms have exploded in size and number and now include 15 of the world's top 25 oil companies, according to Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. Gazprom is the biggest natural gas company on earth, and Aramco and the National Iranian Oil Company may be the globe's most powerful oil concerns. The United Arab Emirates has amassed so much oil wealth that it boasts a state-owned investment fund worth an estimated $1.3 trillion. Kazakhstan, where the world's biggest new oil field was discovered in 2000, has also taken advantage of the power shift. After letting a consortium of multinationals develop the massive project, last fall the government began pressuring the firms to boost its stake. In December, the country's deputy finance minister told the Financial Times that the days of Western dominance were "ancient times."

Can't muster sympathy for the captains of industry? Well, consider this. In the past, activists pushing for improvements from oppressive oil regimes such as Burma's got leverage by launching PR campaigns to embarrass their Western oil partners. But those days are over. Given their waning power, the multinationals are more likely than ever to overlook the abuses. To get their hands on the petroleum of Libya, a nation with an abysmal human rights record, oil companies have offered dictator Moammar Qaddafi nearly all the proceeds from any partnership deals. Six months after the Kremlin took back Sakhalin-2, Putin met with a collection of leading CEOs at a forum in his hometown of St. Petersburg where they competed to suck up to him. "The president is very open and straightforward," Christophe de Margerie, head of French oil giant Total, fawned to the press afterward. "We'd like to invest more." And even as the Kremlin turned the screws on BP to muscle it out of a key project in Russia, chief executive Tony Hayward turned on the charm, declaring that BP was "pleased to be a minority shareholder in Rosneft," another state-controlled oil firm.

If Big Oil is willing to overlook the petrostates' abuses, there's another global partner that can even protect them from international sanctions. China, after all, has veto power over United Nations Security Council resolutions. PetroChina, Beijing's state-run behemoth, is the world's most valuable company, and its parent firm, China National Petroleum Corporation, is trolling for oil around the globe. These firms share the multinationals' hunger for oil investment but resemble Gazprom in their lack of accountability. Consumer campaigns in America mean little to autocratic regimes when China is knocking on the front door.

Most years, the triennial World Energy Congress plays out like a celebration of plutocracy.

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