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Bonus Chart of the Day
This is a cool chart. Using a fairly slick technique, Boris Shor and Nolan McCarty have come up with a way of comparing state parties on a common ideological scale. Andrew Gelman explains:
The estimates are based on state legislative voting, which might make you wonder how you could possibly compare legislators in one state with those in another. The trick is that some state representatives (for example, Barack Obama) also end up in Congress. There are enough of these overlap cases that you can put legislators from all 50 states on a common scale.
It's not clear how the states are ranked, but if you look hard enough you'll see that California is at the bottom. This is appropriate. In fact, the chart goes a long way toward explaining why the Golden State sucks so bad these days: we have both the most liberal Democratic Party and the most conservative Republican Party. The state GOP, in particular, is way more conservative than any of its peers, beating out even Texas and Oklahoma by a sizable margin.
The error bars are pretty big here, so take all of this with a grain of salt. Still, it demonstrates pretty vividly that California really is two states. Not North/South, but Coastal/Inland. They're practically different countries.
The view from Red California
I live deep in the heart of conservative California, and I think if you compared lifestyles and day-to-day philosophy, I think you'd find our conservatives are actually pretty liberal. We recycle; we're tolerant of pot; we'll bust out a CEQA action on some developer if he intrudes on our view.
Politically, though, the liberal dominance makes conservatives feel stuck in a permanent rear-guard action. It's sort of surprising to me that this dynamic isn't seen elsewhere --- say, Massachussetts or New York.
Oh please, what a bunch of
Oh please, what a bunch of bullshit Kevin.
The chart comes with nothing. No explanation of the methodology with clear examples. No discussion of how the errors were measures, or even the states ranked, no clear understanding of what the fuck is being plotted on the x axis.
I've got a chart just like this on my asshole. Wanna see it?
You are, of course, welcome
You are, of course, welcome to read the paper yourself:
http://harrisschool.uchicago.edu/About/publications/working-papers/pdf/wp_08_14.pdf
I rarely try to explain all the details of things like this. But the paper is a genuine effort to try to figure out a way to talk about this stuff. Feel free to criticize further after you've dived into it.
Order
The order comes from the ranking of members in Congress. Apparently, CA has the most liberal Congressional representation.
I'm look at this paper which may or may not be what you posted.
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speaking of assholes
Do you get paid to be all flaming & carbuncley about research methods, or is it just a hobby with you?
No discussion of
No discussion of how the errors were measures.
Assuming you meant "measured", these aren't errors. It's called a box-and-whisker plot.
or even the states ranked
It doesn't matter how the states are ranked -- the chart would be equally valid if you jumbled the states around.
no clear understanding of what the fuck is being plotted on the x axis
If you had bothered to click through to where Kevin got the chart, you would have learned what the x axis is over.
No explanation of the methodology with clear examples.
If you had bothered to click through to where Kevin got the chart, you would have learned about the methodology.
The chart comes with nothing.
I think you're confusing the chart with yourself. Next time you have such a shitty attitude, back it up with more than laziness and ignorance.
You have to be careful about
You have to be careful about that coastal/inland thing. There's a growing blue country centered around Nevada County. Might not be obvious yet, but look at the long term voter registration charts and you'll see the movement. IIRC, even Placer County's registration numbers are shifting blue. Not saying for the moment the coastal/inland thing doesn't speak to reality, but I think the "coast" is slowly expanding inland.
True, and my very own home
True, and my very own home of Orange County is a famously red coastal area. Still, as you say, it's a pretty safe generalization at the moment.
Trending blue??
Placer County, as of May, was the second-most GOP-leaning in the state, narrowly trailing only Modoc County. Here's a link: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/15day-stwdsp-09/county.xls.
It's true the GOP's slipped in the past few years from unopposably dominant to merely overwhelmingly dominant, but that's only thanks to would-be Rep. Charlie Brown, who -- let's not forget -- was also a Republican within this decade.
Isn't that exactly what I
Isn't that exactly what I said? Give it 10 years.
10 years won't be enough
By the time Placer County tips blue, the world will have gone so topsy-turvy that our current political alignments will be meaningless. And it could happen! Santa Cruz and Marin counties went for Nixon in 1960!
Coast vs Valley
There may be a large shift of people out of overpriced housing in the bay area to the foothill counties. We made the move.
NY is a Pinko Hotbed
According to this, my state of NY is a pinko hotbed. No secret there. And it explains why the last time I went to an assembly at one of my kid's schools, they sang the Internationale instead of the Star Spangled Banner.
Well, maybe
I'm a San Diegan by birth living on the other coast now, and this seems a little goofy. Yes, San Diego and OC have their military types and the weird evangelical undertones and the heavily-armed militia men, but "more conservative", I dunno. Sure the rancher/inland parts are all about property rights and water access, and might have a love of guns. These are all big conservative issues. But, my sense is on the most divisive issues, much of the California GOP doesn't care. In that sense, they seem a lot less conservative and steadfastly conservative than those in the South who think the world will end of a homosexual can get married to a homosexual of the same sex but different race. My sense is the CA GOP would vote for a gay cat from Mars if it supported water rights.
Correction
I see one minor error in your post: I don't believe those are error bars. I think they're boxplots showing the distribution of the individual legislators. So a wide band for a given state means that the delegation is more diverse, containing e.g. both fairly moderate and very conservative Republicans.
As for the actual error, I didn't see any discussion of the estimation error in the paper, but I only skimmed it so maybe it's in there somewhere.
Skimmed the article and
Skimmed the article and noted that these guys don't specify in their caption which color is Republican or what side of the NPAT score scale is conservative in any obvious way when the concept is introduced. Figure 14-17 in the appendix tell you that "red is republican".
How long has this color scheme been so conventional you don't have to put it in captions? And am I supposed to know that conservatives are always positive numbers on principle component axis?
Thanks for the plug
Kevin, thanks for the kind words for my blog post. Just a few responses to you and the res of the commenters here:
0) The full working paper with all the details can be found here.
1) Kevin is passing along a chart from a blog post by Andrew Gelman referencing a blog post by me, so it's no wonder the methodological details get lost along the way. But take a look here for all the details in the world.
2) As some commenters have noted, the bars aren't error bars, rather they represent the distribution of ideology within the parties of the 49 states (Nebraska is nonpartisan). The individual legislators' ideologies are estimated with error, of course, but since we have lots and lots of roll calls, these tend to be rather small.
3) The order of the states is by the pooled ideology of all the state legislators over a roughly 15 year time period. Thus, UT is the most conservative, CA the most liberal.
4) The "red=republican" meme has been around as far back as 2000, perhaps earlier. It's a head scratcher given the typical colors from Europe, but there you go. American exceptionalism and all that.
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