- ‹ previous
- 283 of 2798
- next ›
Obama and the South
Are Democrats going to lose the House in 2010? Just to make things clear up front, I think it's dumb to even be asking this question so early in the election cycle. The answer depends on healthcare, it depends on the economy, it depends on Afghanistan and Iraq. Come back in April, when we have a better read on those things, and we can talk.
But Charlie Cook is talking now, and he thinks Democrats are in big trouble. Brendan Nyhan, hauling out some fancy poli sci analysis, isn't so sure Cook is right, and Cook responds:
Have you been in the South lately? The level of anti-Obama, anti-Democratic and anti-Congress venom is extraordinary, and with 59 Democrat-held
seats in the region, 22 in or potentially in competitive districts, this is a very serious situation for Democrats. I have had several Democratic members from the region say the atmosphere is as bad or worse than it was in 1994.
This is no surprise. For the last forty years the South has been represented in the Oval Office one way or another. They've been represented when a Republican was president, because Republicans represent their values. (Or, at the very least, they talk a good game.) And they've been represented when a Democrat was in office, because the last three Democratic presidents have all been Southerners.
But Barack Obama? He's a northern Democrat. What's worse, he's not from Hope or Plains or Johnson City and he doesn't pretend to be. He's a biracial, urban, Harvard-educated northern Democrat. If there's anyone in the world more likely to scare the hell out of traditionally-minded Southerners, I'm not sure who it is. For the first time in decades, the South is completely out in the cold. Completely powerless.
So their conspiracy-laden backlash against Obama is no surprise, and it might well lead to a further loss of seats for Dems in the South. But will they lose all 22 of the competitive districts? I doubt it. And will they lose another 20-30 more outside the South? I doubt that too. If you live in Washington it's all too easy to get caught up in whatever whirlwind happens to be whirling at the moment, but this one won't last forever. If Democrats manage to avoid terminal stupidity over the next few months1, they'll take some hits in the midterms but come out still retaining a sizable majority. If Charlie or anyone else has some money they want put down on this, just let me know.
1Yes, yes, I know.
the south
Lincoln should have cut the crazy loons loose in '61 when he had the chance. Democrat or Republican controlled it's pretty much been a cesspool of worrisome sickness and bile ever since. The slaves would have eventually freed themselves, albeit after much bloodshed and loss of life. Kinda like, oh, I don't know, the losses experienced in the Civil War. Same ends, different army. Any region of the country capable of forcing high school students to conduct racially segregated proms (140 years after the fricking war!) really needs another Sherman's March.
Telephone call for Gen. Sherman
You might be on to something. Living in Georgia for 30 years, I've never seen a black Georgia Power lineman, a black AT&T technician, a black man at the controls of a CSX train. I have seen a black UPS driver. All are among the best paying jobs for a non-college grad.
I'm sure it's not racism, though. Probably just a coincidence.
The South
Steve is right on the money. And it's not too late. We can offer the old Confederacy the chance to opt out now. Let them vote on it. Maybe then we can make real progress.
Give me a break.
This is the situation that's supposed to have Democrats terrified?
Everybody says how smart Cook is, and I concede nothing is without peril for a new incumbent in a recession, but come on. It's the GOP that's cratering everywhere but the South...... "Have you been to the South lately?" is the politics equivalent of "But David Eckstein hits when it counts" for baseball (i.e. data is meaningless, only selective small samples matter).
I like those graphs
Note that all the regions except the south appear to be displaying erect middle fingers to the Republican mob.
Very appropriate.
"Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable" - John F. Kennedy
Surfie from the distant shore
Even worse he originally comes from Polynesia out in the Pacific surfing from Hawaii and Indonesia, places off the beaten track to say the least. Ipso facto he can't be an American.
The South shall not rise again...nor the GOP
There is one BIG difference between 2010 and 1994, that pretty much renders any other comparisons of the electorates invalid. In 1994 the voting public had no real experience with a GOP controlled House. The last time it had happened was before the average US voter was born. At a time of extreme dissatisfaction with Congress (has there ever been a time of satisfaction?), voters were presented with this organized group of candidates who were mostly new faces, and advertising a "Contract with America"...gee, sounds sort of like a Square Deal or maybe a New Deal? So, people were willing to give them a chance. After that chance buyers remorse set in almost immediately. The GOP lost seats in 1996, 1998, barely held their own in 2000 and 2002 and only had a mild, war hysteria induced, resurgence in 2004.
Now it is 2010 and, outside of the Solid South, nobody views GOP candidates as a reasonable alternative to the hated Democrats. The GOP will undoubtedly pick up some seats in the South, as they solidify their grip on the region. But in doing so, they will be placing themselves firmly on the wrong side of the demographic shift that is coming and ensure that they will be out of power in the South within the next five election cycles.
Outside of the Solid South, it will be business as usual, with most incumbents cruising to victory as voters chose the devil they know. No tectonic shifts there.
the south shall not rise again
tagged as:- solution
susanai
I really and truly hope and pray you're right on this one. The republicans back in power has the world trembling. Which country will they choose next to invade? What monetary evils will they impose? If they get back in power it won't be 'recession' it will 'when is the next Depression?'
The South
The demographic trends are against the GOP in the south. See my post at
www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2009/09/chart-day-0
The South
I used to live in the South (in TX and NC), although I live in the NE now.
Last time I have been to the South was this summer, when I transited through DFW. Being a good northeastern reading and thinking kind of a person (almost a non-american) i headed to the bookstore.
I was really struck with the selection in the current event section: Hannity, Gingrich, Malkin, Beck. Not a voice, not a single voice from the center or across the aisle. (Not to mention that it was difficult to find anything not written by a ghost writer, but that's another story)
I gotta believe that this display was reflective of the readership. If so, yes, it will be a tough election campaign.
Its a dirty little (non) secret.....
A LOT of people in the south are really dumb and really proud of it.
*****Everybody says how
*****Everybody says how smart Cook is, and I concede nothing is without peril for a new incumbent in a recession, but come on.*****
The media whores love a dramatic narrative. "GOP surges to take back the House from the Dems!" is a much juicier story than "Dems suffer modest and typical mid-term losses in keeping with expectations."
what about local politics
Electoral pundits are ignoring local politics. Many states are having budget crises, and many of those crises are the result of Republican led legislatures. The Republicans' response to slash state budgets for social services and education, instead of raising the taxes on the wealthy they had previously cut, is not going unnoticed by the electorate. Whether or not that will affect the electorate in regards to national elective offices is difficult to gauge, but Republicans are not helping themselves in these dire economic times by using their standard emotional issues like abortion, homosexual marriage and gun control.
I have lived nearly 60 years
I have lived nearly 60 years in the South and I am not worried (yet). The big shift to Republicans was the '80's with Republicans taking congressional seats and state government. Many people here say they hate the Democrats but they now also are tired of the Republicans. People here had a few spurts of economic growth with manufacturing moving south before it kept moving south across the border, then the construction boom. Both have played out with nothing new to look forward to and the response from the Republicans is "NO" to everything except tax cuts. No believable proposals to restore growth will make it difficult to unseat an incumbent. But, Democrats need to show results on health care now.
The one area that would be poison here is climate change legislation. People here just want cheap gas and electricity and fuck the polar bears.
southerners
I for one, just want a healthy polar bear population and fuck the southerners.
Agreed! Here's to healthy
Agreed! Here's to healthy polar bears!
climate change
I was born raised in TX but left after graduating UT in 1980 (for New York City). I agree with you on the repug takeoevr in the 80's, but just wanted to say forget about the polar bears...how about your grandkids and their kids in 2040-2060?
polar baers
This may be difficult to follow, but taking measures to protect the habitat of the polar bears will go a long way toward helping the kids and grandkids have a decent future. I'll amend my comment accordingly: fuck ignorant southerners.
corrections
reply was to the previous comment. Sorry about that, and of course, oops, it's bears not baers.
It is much too late to save
It is much too late to save the polar bears.
Charlie's just feeding the horse race game
The media somehow needs to make 2010 a horse race whatever the political landscape in the run-up and at that time, and Charlie Cook knows where his bucks are coming from.
Obama and the South
How of those 59 seats are in predominantly African-American districts that will are reliably Democratic?
South schmouth
Backbencher and others hit it on the head. The white south is no-man's land for Dems, but it's just one region, and an outlier at that.
1994 was an historic election in which the GOP consolidated its southern white base. In that election the old dixiecrat south was finally laid to rest, and white southerners become the solid GOP voters they were destined to be. Yet at the same time the Dems had yet to consolidate their hold on the rest of the country. During the following elections they slowly did just that, eliminating Republicans in vast swaths of the country, eventually leading to large democratic majorities in both houses.
The current partisan makeup of the congress is based on deep structural roots. The GOP's behavior since Obama took office has even further marginalized them, and they will find it difficult to make any significant gains outside their southern regional base.
Republicans think they can turn 2010 into another 1994, but they're wrong. Democratic ascendancy is a durable and probably permanent feature of the political era we are entering. When the wingnuts finally figure this out they're going to get even angrier than they are now. That's when I expect the Tim McVeigh's to start multiplying.
susanai But the wingnuts
susanai
But the wingnuts have Fox and the Dems have ???
Don't get overconfident.
wovenstrap's graph looks impressive, but what is really being measured there? How would the same graph asked about the Democratic party look? My guess is not so great -certainly not the inverse of this one. To those of us policy-wonk types, it appears as if the R's are accelerating their mutual siucide pact, but most voters don't pay attention to policy -or governing efficiency. More likely they can be swayed by the general mood. And that mood contains stuff like "A lot of people really-really hate Obama". And that can make them feel uncomfortable with him -even if they don't like the swamp-fever croud either.
The chart ain't gospel, sure.
Well, that chart is pretty singular, and I doubt there's much equivalency between what's being expressed here and what any big party gets. The GOP has an awful record governing very recently, and has been looking boorish and unlikely to benefit the ordinary citizen all over the media recently. It's a toxic combination. A lot of people really hate Obama, sure, but a lot of people really like him, and his overall numbers are healthy. And "most voters" may not attend policy, but this chart wasn't about policy! So how does that statement render this chart less relevant? You can't say that voters vote on softer issues and then dismiss favorability rankings.
"He's a biracial, urban,
"He's a biracial, urban, Harvard-educated northern Democrat. If there's anyone in the world more likely to scare the hell out of traditionally-minded Southerners, I'm not sure who it is"
Self-serving tendentious balderdash, presented without a whit of substantiation.
Whereas there is a tremendous amount of evidence that what is upsetting people is Obama's policies.
But that doesn't match the false narrative, so whoop! Away it goes.
white voters
white voters in the northeast, west and midwest still approve of obama in higher numbers than the percentage of the vote he received...in the south, it's the opposite...just sayin'
A better prediction will be
A better prediction will be several states' legislatures will lose their Republican majorities.
Most of the comments above
Most of the comments above are on the right track. However, the 1994 election wasn't just the final act of southern realignment (with a big assist from white men and religious Protestants). The House was a mess - post office scandal, check kiting, etc. . Of the 34 Democratic incumbents who lost , only seven were from the "South" as the party got hammered in places like WA, OH and IN. Some first termers from the mid-west or + Republican suburban districts might lose but there is no way the Democrats drop close to 34 non-southern seats.
Obama and the South
We have lived in MS and AL for four miserable years and just now leaving/moving to New Mexico. The people are not well educated, not interesting in the truth and profess to be religious. If they would get their head out of the sand they might help future generations and get educated and find out about the world out there. Most hate the government but are on disability and where do they think that comes from Blue laws everywhere and just hard to live down there.
2010 Will Be The Year Americans Can Take Back Their Government
The analysis of the pols has often been less than accurate, but in this coming election cycle, they may all find themselves dealing with something they never considered - Americans are fed up with corporate control of political campaigns and policy! Their anger is directed towards both Democrats and Republicans, and it is being fed by increasing poverty, unemployment, poor health, poor food, and violent, hate-filled rhetoric from an out of control media.
I am going to Washington, DC from my home in Spokane, WA. I will arrive on November 3rd, one year from the day we voted in this government. We have seen it sell American taxpayers out to banks, corporate insurance companies, to industry to the tune of millions of dollars- and yet nothing for the average American except a small stimulus payment. We voted in this government, and since they seem to have forgotten that, I am asking people, huge numbers of people, to join me in reminding them.
Please go to my website at Let Freedom Ring.Community and join me in this journey to take back the "Ear of Congress" and to make sure that our duly elected President gets this message:
We elected you, Mr. President, Members of Congress, to represent us, the American People. Corporations may have paid for your campaigns, but it is we who voted you in. It is we to whom you are accountable and we demand an accounting.
One year from this November we will go to the polls again, after months of listening to campaign rhetoric and campaign ads. We do not have to listen to this, we will be watching what you have done since we last elected you. And, we will vote you out when you fail to deliver public option health care; food security; clean energy; strong climate change legislation; better education for our children; strong veterans benefits and protections; decreased military funding; stops to corporate welfare subsidies. We will watch to see if your health insurance improves while you fail to regulate the health industry; we will watch to see how much your portfolios increase if your fail to regulate heavily the financial industry.
And, after we have watched this, we will vote - not because of smear campaigns or slick ads. We will vote because we have lost our jobs, our homes, our retirements, our children's college funds, our health, and our future. And you will be unemployed like the rest of us. Whether it is in 2010 or 2012 will be merely a matter of who you are.
Join me across this nation as I send this message to our government, federal, state, and local. Make your voice heard and your face seen. LET AMERICA ROAR! LET US BE UNITED IN OUR DESIRE TO LET FREEDOM RING ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE!
Southerners
Hey, everyone down here is NOT an idiotic right winger. Many of us will be ecstatic to see them all buried under a wave of blue. We're working on it!
I just have to shake my head
But Barack Obama? He's a northern Democrat. What's worse, he's not from Hope or Plains or Johnson City and he doesn't pretend to be. He's a biracial, urban, Harvard-educated northern Democrat. If there's anyone in the world more likely to scare the hell out of traditionally-minded Southerners, I'm not sure who it is. For the first time in decades, the South is completely out in the cold. Completely powerless.
==============================================
It's just amazing how a Californian who's never lived in the South (have you ever even been there?) can have such perfect understanding.
You guys are all whistling past the graveyard. This goes far beyond the South. Here in Colorado it's amazing to see how quickly the HOPE! stickers are being replaced by OOPS! stickers
Healthcare IS the bridge that spans the divide.
It's not the people, they're hurting... and the GOP right wing understands how to turn their pain into rage.
The Democratic Party has compromised its fortitude by allowing the Corporate Health Industry to dominate the reform process & dialogue.
The hate that has emerged from this fiasco is like what I remember from the Civil Rights era. It's a low down shame that something this ugly has been perpetuated and tolerated.
Neither party gives a rat's ass about the Humanity of our nation.
Expanded Medicare (not Medicaid) as the public option, available to anyone who wanted to buy into it could have changed so many lives... and attitudes.
NC went Blue for Obama. If it changes back to Red...
Don't blame Main Street and the unemployed, uninsured, bankrupt voters.
in 94, the gop takeover has
in 94, the gop takeover has helped by the fact that there were lots of dem retirements, and the republicans cleaned up in those races...and the democrats retook the house in the last two cycles by picking off almost all the open seats that the gop let go...there are currently only a small number of dems leaving after next year and less than five of them are leaving open seats in competitive districts....
"If there's anyone in the
"If there's anyone in the world more likely to scare the hell out of traditionally-minded Southerners, I'm not sure who it is."
John Kerry?
kerry vs obama
actually, obama did worse than kerry did with white voters in 4 states [tn, ar, la and ok]
I'm not saying Spell Check is racist but....
This might be nit picking on my part but it really bugs me. Every time I type the name, "Obama" the good folks at Spell Check inform me that I have gotten the spelling wrong. Here are their suggested corrections:
Obadiah
Obadias
Bamako
Alabama
Right. I've got a fifth suggestion for them: Ob-la-di! Ob-la-da! Life goes on - BRA!
Their suggestions for my "misspelling" of the name "Barack" are almost as amusing:
Ba rack
Ba-rack
Barrack
Bareback
Barabbas
I just got through typing up a list of all forty-three men who have served as chief executive. Spell Check tells me that I got every name right (or, in the case of Martin Van Buren, half right) with one exception. You guessed it: "Barack Obama". The guy has been in the public eye for over five years now. He's been president for nine months! You would think they might have fixed that by now, wouldn't you?
That reminds me. Can anyone please explain to me just what the hell an "Obadias" is? It's not in Webster's Dictionary.
tomdegan@frontiernet.net
Tom Degan
Goshen, NY
southern strategy and Obama
After watching a class on Academic Earth about the history of the Civil War I have decided that the South still wants to fight one. (especially the men)
We tried
We tried to leave once before and you-all insisted we stay so you could have a whipping boy for your self-perceived intellectual and moral superiority.
We in the South are more familiar with racial charlatans and can quickly identify the "Rev Ike's of the Church of What's Happening Now" as the phonies they are.
Chairman MAObama is an inheritor of the moral weaknesses and lack of patriotism of his fellow Chicagoan Jesse Jackson. himself once a Southerner.
Remember: Lee surrendered- we didn't!
susanai Happens to me on my
tagged as:- solution
susanai
Happens to me on my 5 email accounts. Somethings wrong!