In The Blogs

Operation Orchard

Remember that Syrian nuclear plant that was destroyed by the Israeli air force in 2007?  I don't quite remember who pointed me to this, but I've had a tab open all weekend to a recent Spiegel article about the whole affair — and after finally getting around to reading it, it turned out to be pretty interesting stuff.  Here's the short version of how the plant was originally detected:

In the spring of 2004, the American National Security Agency (NSA) detected a suspiciously high number of telephone calls between Syria and North Korea, with a noticeably busy line of communication between the North Korean capital Pyongyang and a place in the northern Syrian desert called Al Kibar. The NSA dossier was sent to the Israeli military's "8200" unit, which is responsible for radio reconnaissance and has its antennas set up in the hills near Tel Aviv. Al-Kibar was "flagged," as they say in intelligence jargon.

....In late 2006...a senior Syrian government official checked into a hotel in the exclusive London neighborhood of Kensington. He was under Mossad surveillance and turned out to be incredibly careless, leaving his computer in his hotel room when he went out....The hard drive contained construction plans, letters and hundreds of photos. The photos, which were particularly revealing, showed the Al Kibar complex at various stages in its development....One of the photos showed an Asian in blue tracksuit trousers, standing next to an Arab. The Mossad quickly identified the two men as Chon Chibu and Ibrahim Othman. Chon is one of the leading members of the North Korean nuclear program, and experts believe that he is the chief engineer behind the Yongbyon plutonium reactor. Othman is the director of the Syrian Atomic Energy Commission.

....February 2007....An Iranian general [] decided to switch sides....Ali-Reza Asgari, 63, a handsome man with a moustache, was the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard in Lebanon in the 1980s and became Iran's deputy defense minister in the mid-1990s....According to Asgari, Tehran was building a second, secret plant in addition to the uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, which was already known to the West. Besides, he said, Iran was apparently funding a top-secret nuclear project in Syria, launched in cooperation with the North Koreans.

....On an overcast night in August 2007 [] Israeli elite units traveling in helicopters at low altitude crossed the border into Syria, where they unloaded their testing equipment in the desert near Deir el-Zor and took soil samples in the general vicinity of the Al Kibar plant. The group had to abort its daring mission prematurely when it was discovered by a patrol. The Israelis still lacked the definitive proof they needed. However those in Tel Aviv who favored quick action argued that the results of the samples "provided evidence of the existence of a nuclear program."

A month later, Israeli jets destroyed the Al Kibar facility.  The Israeli prime minister sent a message to the Syrians via Turkey that no further attacks were planned, and if they'd clam up about it, so would he.  They did.  Furthermore, Spiegel reports that Syrian President Bashar Assad has more recently "been considering taking a sensational political step. He is believed to have suggested to contacts in Pyongyang that he is considering the disclosure of his "national" nuclear program, but without divulging any details of cooperation with his North Korean and Iranian partners."  North Korea and Iran are decidedly not excited about this prospect.

The sourcing for that last bit is obscure, so there's no telling if it's really true.  But the whole piece is worth a read.  It's pretty good cloak and dagger stuff.

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Comments
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Such awesome graphics and

Such awesome graphics and spectacular cloak and dagger stories make me wonder what Tom Clancy and his cover artists have been up to lately. The track suit pants seems a little cliche though.

Seriously though, Mossad and Israeli military narratives often have an air of "it could have happened" built on top of an impossible resume of decades of succeeding and never #$$@ing up.

Somehow the scenario is always that these guys have the best intelligence in the world and the dead guy is described as a known bomb maker or recruiter. Somehow we are the ones that end up bombing civilians and wedding parties and children by accident. Of course, it might also be that we tend to let the UN, NATO, or resident governments in to assess before bulldozing the scene.

Anyway, I won't bother to pass judgement on evidence I'm not allowed to see. One could hope that at least the UN isotope data would be made public but that's probably blocked by the country doing the accelerometer MS analysis or something. If they had enriched uranium on site -- that would appear to indicate that the reactor was complete and close to working? Strikes me as a little bizarre since the Bushehr 1 reactor is only going on line right now and had no nuclear fuel in August 2007.

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Technical point

The North Korean reactors are based on an old British design (Magnox) that uses natural uranium so there is no need to either master the enrichment process or buy enriched uranium. Some sources of natural uranium can be easily identified due to the different levels of U235 v U238 but I am not sure that applies to all natural uranium so maybe the IAEA doesn't know where the uranium came from but they should say so.

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Nice Work of Fiction

If you think back to when this "story" first broke, you should remember that the US IC claimed that they had not known about this "Syrian reactor" until the Israelis told them about it. Either they were lying then or they are lying now, and I strongly suspect it is the latter.

This is yet another piece of Israeli disinformation probably aimed at distracting attention from the Goldstone Report. Hey, look at all the threats to Israel, "nuclear reactors" in the Syrian Desert, container ships load with "Iranian rockets" en route to Hezbollah and Russian S-300 SAMs being "smuggled" to Iran so Israel must be allowed to fight all these "terrorists" in any way it see fit. The trouble is that once that view becomes acceptable, then the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank, expansion to the Litani River, etc. will gather pace very quickly and the US will be even more hated in the World than it is now if that is possible.

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I'm always amazed when I read stories like this.

Direct calls from Syria to North Korea? Who is so stupid as to do that? They couldn't use an intermediate country to hide the call path?

And leaving a computer in a hotel room! With plans and ... then it gets a Trojan horse program installed to steal data. What, Syria couldn't afford $200 for a flash memory stick to put the data on (instead of a hard drive, and it's removable and can be hidden).

I'm always surprised at the failure to develop and follow strict protocols when a country like Syria is about to embark on a really big "secret" project. Are they all fools?

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It's all a load of bollocks

Maybe the Israelis are fools for expecting people to believe this crap.

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Spooks & laptops

What is it with spooks and laptops? As Quiddity already pointed out, that thing with the computer and all the critical information on its harddrive so neatly draped on the table of a London hotel room just sounds a tiny bit stretched.

Calls to mind though that much of the info the US claims to have vis-à.vis an Iranian nuclear weapons program is based on a similar plot, i.e. the famous 'MEK Laptop' which is so precious that the IAEA isn't being allowed to see it and verify its content.

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Good comments above. One

Good comments above. One other small conflict is that the Syrian reactor (?) was described in the original story as being 'under construction' along with satellite photos that pointed to such. Isn't it unlikely that uranium would be on-site at such an early point? So why the Israeli attempt at soil analysis in the first place?

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Yeah, so quiddity, nepeta,

Yeah, so quiddity, nepeta, srw1 can analyze the Jews evil intent and the bullshit here when even David Albright and Mohammed El Baradei concede/admit/agree there was a reactor on the ground in Syria, and of course El Baradei sent men there to find out.

A fine example of bias and libtard analysis so proud and arrogantly getting it so wrong.

Jews!

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You misunderstand me.

I was taking the story at face value and found it hard to believe the Syrians could be such fools. Maybe they are. But, as some others have suggested, perhaps the story is cooked up by Israel. I certainly don't know which is the case. Either way, something odd is going on.

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El Baradei?

I wouldn't be surprised if the esteemed David Albright, a true believer in Iraqi WMD until assigned to find them after the invasion, would believe that the target of the Israeli strike was indeed a nuclear reactor. But in my attempts to confirm El Baradei's confirmation, my googling comes up empty. The most recent thing I could find was an El Baradei speech at the UN on Sept 9, 2009, that did not confirm a reactor site, but instead complained about Syria not cooperating in allowing the IAEA to take a look at the site. As you might remember, El Baradei was quite upset that both the US and Israel supposedly had 'intelligence' on the site but neglected to inform El Baradei of their suspicions. That would have been the logical thing to do.

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Mind to turn on you critical faculties?

Hey Precious,

whenever you have some spare capacity from running these 'libtard' and anti-semitism circuits, would you mind to make an attempt in reasoning how what I wrote about spooks & laptops equates to what you claim it equates to?

Much obliged.

PS: There's quite a spectrum in 'concede/admit/agree'. What did you think was really the most appropriate verb of the three?

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So much BS in this story, so

So much BS in this story, so little time cover it all. Good analyses from previous commenters!

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A little known story

At the time of the attack on Al-Kibar, there was an international archaeological excavation going on in Zenobia, less than 3000 meters away from the nuclear site, just on the other side of the Euphrates : in fact, on the graphic upper right corner, right below the map, you can make out the outline of Zenobia's walls. The archaeologists were the first Westerners (outside military/intelligence people) to know about the attack, well before the media, because the morning after, their local workers were very upset by the night bombing. They thought at the time that it was the US airforce which was responsible.
Anyway, what is very strange is that none of the archaeologists had ever suspected the existence of the Al-Kibar site before the attack, although they were free to roam the area. Some of them had crossed the old floating bridge (still there) on the Euphrates and followed the East side up and down the river without seeing anything suspicious. No military trucks, no check points, no patrol, nothing !

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The author of the SPIEGEL

The author of the SPIEGEL piece is Erich Follath. He has also written an book "The eye of David: The secret commando operations of the Israelis"

http://www.amazon.de/Davids-geheimen-Kommando-Unternehmen-Israelis/dp/34...

One can be sure he has good relations with Mossad - and the article he pinned sounds just like dictated by Mossad.

Another recent piece of him that came out on the eve on the election in Lebanon claimed that Hezbollah was responsible for the assassination of Hariri.

Nobody believed that either ...

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Sourcebook on Israeli strike/Syrian reactor

There's a biggish collection of factoids on the topic at

http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/syria.pdf

J. Frank Parnell

Reactors that haven't gone

Reactors that haven't gone critical yet have no emissions to speak of, so why would anyone try a dangerous secret soil monitoring mission which wouldn't show anything anyhow?

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