What's the endgame in Wisconsin? Andy Kroll rounds up the possibilities today, and outcome #1 is that eventually the union busting bill passes. This has seemed the most likely outcome to me from the start. Gov. Scott Walker has run a very disciplined operation so far, he has a lot of leverage and doesn't seem afraid to use it, he's taking on an unpopular target, and Democrats can't hide out in Illinois forever.
But I've been a little surprised at how things have turned out so far. Democrats might not be able to hide forever, but it turns out they can hide for a good long time. Even more important, it turns out that Walker's position may not be as popular as I thought. A national Gallup poll yesterday showed that 61% of Americans don't favor taking away collective bargaining rights from public sector unions. This doesn't mean teachers unions are suddenly everyone's heroes, but it does mean that a sizeable number of people think that busting unions entirely is a step too far.
And then there are Walker's fellow Republicans. One of the big questions swirling around the situation in Wisconsin is the notion that it's a bellwether: if Walker wins, will other Republican governors follow suit? There's still no telling, but just yesterday both Indiana's Mitch Daniels and Florida's Rick Scott have spoken out against the idea of eliminating collective bargaining rights. Their statements were mild, but they still take a bit of momentum out of Walker's anti-union crusade.
Even if unions lose the battle in Wisconsin, one benefit of their protest is to show other Republican governors that they're in for a pretty serious war if they try to do the same thing. That's worth a lot all by itself.