Our Grim Economic Destiny

| Fri Aug. 26, 2011 10:52 AM EDT

It's now crystal clear that (a) there will be no further monetary stimulus, (b) there will be no further fiscal stimulus, (c) Europe is in real trouble that it's very unlikely to address aggressively, and (d) China's growth is slowing. We should be investing enormous amounts of money into green research and green adaptation (higher efficiency, conservation, etc.) but we're not, and there's little prospect of this happening in the near future.

It's very hard for me to be optimistic about the economy in any way these days. Karl Smith keeps trying to tell me that pent-up demand for housing will drive recovery, and I'm sort of clinging to that. Maybe he's right. But it remains the case that it takes money to buy a new house, no matter how pent-up your own personal demand is, and I don't know where that's going to come from. Last week a friend of mine finally gave up on keeping the mobile home she bought a few years ago. She just flatly can't find a job, so she's selling it (she hopes) and moving in with her sister. That has to stop happening before housing can recover, and so far I'm not sure it's stopping.

I guess 9% unemployment is the new normal. Given our current unwillingness to do anything about it, I wouldn't be surprised to see us stay at this level for two or three more years. Maybe longer. Maybe a lot longer.