Wow. Our experiment is off to a great start—let's see if we can finish it off sooner than expected.
Ron Barber won the AZ-2 House race today, and with that I believe the 2012 election is over. Final results:
So how did Sam Wang, our resident expert do? Answer: pretty well. A month before the election, he called the presidential race dead on and missed the Senate race by only one seat. His House prediction was off by 16 seats, but in fairness, he was in the middle of incorporating redistricting/incumbency effects when I asked him for his forecast on October 6, and he warned me that this might change things. His later forecast was considerably more accurate.
Still, the rules were best forecast a month ahead of the election. So who won? Here are all the commenters who got the presidential split correct:
Oddly, all four predicted an identical House split, so the winner is jharp, who got the Senate split dead on. However, there's an honorable mention co-winner too:
Kadzimiel was almost dead-on for both the House and Senate, and missed the presidential split only by Florida, which was a genuine nail-biter that could have gone either way.
So that's that. The 2012 election is in the books. Kadzimiel and jharp are co-winners of the forecasting contest, and if you guys will send me your email addresses I'll try to persuade the powers-that-be to sign you up for a free MoJo subscription for 2013. Congratulations!