Obamacare Signups From the Uninsured Appear to Be Surging

| Tue Feb. 18, 2014 9:59 PM EST

Out of all the Obamacare signups to date, how many are from people who were previously uninsured? Extrapolating from signups in New York, Charles Gaba provides the following estimates:

  • October, November, December — perhaps 50% of 2.15 million = 1.075 million previously uninsured
  • January — perhaps 75% of 1.15 million = 863,000 previously uninsured
  • February — probably 90% out of, say, 700,000 = 630,000 previously uninsured
  • March — probably at least 95% out of (unknown number, depends on strength of the expected "March surge"...assume 1.0 - 1.5 million?) = perhaps 0.9 - 1.4 million previously uninsured

Unsurprisingly, people who were already insured dominated the early signups. Since the beginning of 2013, however, it's mostly been people who are getting insurance for the first time. If Gaba is right, by March we'll have about 4 million workers who are newly insured via private plans, plus several more millions who have newly qualified for Medicaid. It's a start.