Kevin Drum

THE OBAMA INFOMERCIAL....The Nielsen people just emailed to tell me that Barack Obama's infomercial last night was viewed by 21.7% of all households watching TV. That compares to 38.3% for the final Obama-McCain debate.

Is that good? Bad? I'm not sure, really. But with the kind of money the Obama campaign has, I guess it doesn't matter much.

What did everyone think of it? I thought it was (duh) really well done and did a good job of presenting Obama as both a serious candidate and a normal human being. On the other hand, the tales of woe struck me as a little heavy handed. I think it might have been better if it had been a little less gloomy.

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HOMEOWNER BAILOUT UPDATE....The Washington Post reports that the White House is getting ready to announce a plan that would help up to 3 million homeowners avoid default:

Under the program being discussed, the lender would agree to reduce borrowers' monthly payments based on their ability to pay. The reductions could be achieved by lowering the interest rate, slashing the amount owed or extending the repayment period.

....In exchange, financial institutions that agree to participate in the program would receive a government guarantee for a portion of any losses occurring if borrowers default on the reconfigured loan.

For what it's worth, a Treasury spokesman told the Wall Street Journal that media reports about the program are "simply inaccurate," so take this with a grain of salt. Still, I'll bet it's not too far off the mark, and it sounds like a decent plan. It would be nice to see a chunk of that $700 billion being put to use helping someone other than a bunch of bankers.

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OBAMA'S LEAD....I notice that a number of liberal pundits are starting to worry in public that maybe John McCain is making up some ground and that maybe, just maybe, he could end up pulling ahead by election day. And sure, anything is possible. But I suspect that this growing fear is due in large part to the fact that, even now, a lot of people really aren't quite sure why Obama is winning.

That includes plenty of conservatives, too, who are practically insane with frustration over what's going on. After all, they've pulled out all the usual stops. They've called Obama a traitor, a radical, an appeaser, a terrorist lover, an Israel hater, and a socialist. And that stuff usually does the trick. So what's wrong this time?

Obama himself is part of it. He's been pretty unflappable and, like FDR, uses humor and mockery effectively to deflect a lot of the fever swamp stuff. His campaign is part of it too. It helps a lot when your response includes not just humor and mockery, but four TV ads to every one of McCain's.

And then there's the X factor: for some reason, the public just isn't buying the old swill this year. Is it because of the economy? Because they're tired of Republicans? Because they think Obama is The One? Who knows? And because we don't really, truly know, we're afraid that maybe if McCain finds just the right pitch, just the right attack line, just the right dodge, the whole thing could come crashing down and the public will, once again, start buying the old swill after all.

But I think that's exactly the wrong way to look at it. If it were just personality, maybe picking Sarah Palin as his running mate really would have turned things around. If it were just ads, maybe a better ad from McCain might do the trick. But if the real problem is that public opinion has turned against modern, GOP-style conservatism in a big way — and that really does seem to be the case — then Obama has the strongest possible kind of lead. Like Adam Smith's invisible hand, it may seem mysterious, but it's no less powerful for all that.

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MEDIA BIAS EXPLAINED....FINALLY....You may have noticed that conservatives have gone absolutely ga-ga over the idea that the media has been not just biased against them during this campaign cycle, but virtually bought-and-paid-for chattel of the Obama '08 campaign. "The national media has become a feminized, electronic vote-for-Obama nagging machine," says Dan Perrin. "Will the Obamedia cover that?" sneers Andy McCarthy about the cost of Obama's plane trip to visit his dying grandmother. (Seriously.) "Michael S. Malone at ABC beautifully, if tragically, with shame, reports on the 'get-a-room' performance of the national media in this presidential election year," says Jules Crittendon.

Michael Malone? The right-wing tech writer? Yep. Malone, it turns out, has the usual litany of complaints: Why isn't the press interviewing Obama's drug dealer? Why aren't they staking out Bill Ayers' home? What's up with Joe the Plumber? Etc. Kinda tedious. But if you make it to the end, there's comedy gold when he finally explains why the media is so in the tank for Obama. The reason, it turns out, is because the press is run by a bunch of fifty-somethings working in a dying industry:

In other words, you are facing career catastrophe — and desperate times call for desperate measures. Even if you have to risk everything on a single Hail Mary play. Even if you have to compromise the principles that got you here. After all, newspapers and network news are doomed anyway — all that counts is keeping them on life support until you can retire.

And then the opportunity presents itself — an attractive young candidate whose politics likely matches yours, but more important, he offers the prospect of a transformed Washington with the power to fix everything that has gone wrong in your career.

With luck, this monolithic, single-party government will crush the alternative media via a revived fairness doctrine, re-invigorate unions by getting rid of secret votes, and just maybe be beholden to people like you in the traditional media for getting it there.

That's the answer! It's not reporters who are the real problem, it's a cabal of middle age editors who are desperately trying to elect a president who will pay them back for their support by destroying blogs and rejuvenating the Newspaper Guild. Seriously. That's his theory. And, of course, it was worth a link from Instapundit.

But the big question is: how did he find out? Who leaked? Whoever it is, we need to find the bastard and make him pay. This could ruin everything.

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