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Is Copenhagen Dead?
Is the Obama administration giving up on reaching a comprehensive international climate change agreement this year? A statement released on Friday by John Podesta, who headed Barack Obama's presidential transition, is a big hint that the White House is looking to dramatically downplay expectations.
In the statement, Podesta, the head of the Center for American Progress, and Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, declare, "The world's leading economic powers remain inactive in preventing an increase in the serious impacts of climate change." The pair do not explicitly criticize the United States and the Obama administration. But their statement suggests that the Obama administration has not succeeded in leading the major global powers toward effective action:
While current impacts of climate change may not have reached alarming proportions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that will happen soon enough if we do not take early action. What is causing increasing concern, as the December UN climate summit in Copenhagen draws ever nearer, is the continuing deadlock in political action to deal with this challenge.
Podesta and Pachauri note that the commitment reached last July by G-8 countries—including the United States—to reduce global greenhouse emissions by 50 percent by 2050 is not sufficient and that the ongoing negotiations in advance of the Copenhagen conference do not "reflect this imperative."
The two paint a bleak picture of the road to Copenhagen:
The interim U.N. meetings over the summer leading up to Copenhagen have not gone well. Still unresolved are fundamental differences between developed countries about whether the Kyoto Protocol should be continued or be abandoned altogether for an entirely new treaty. The document under discussion at the U.N. is some 200 pages of contradictory provisions from a variety of submissions from different countries. Practically every sentence contains bracketed language still needing debate and revision. The prospect of shaping this up into a coherent document by December, with only two more interim meetings to go, appears grim.
They conclude that the negotiations have reached an impasse, with the developing and developed countries disagreeing about how far each side should go to reduce emissions: "While it is true that developed countries carry the burden of historical responsibility, and must prove to be the first movers in mitigation, developing countries will become bigger emitters in the future; this intractable dynamic is proving unconstructive."
Looking for "a more positive track," Podesta and Pachauri urge the G-20 countries meeting in Pittsburgh—nations that together produce 80 percent of global warming emissions—"to focus on a series of mini-agreements that could be reached at or before Copenhagen." Their wish list includes measures that set-up multilateral collaborations to develop low-carbon technologies and that create financing arrangements to assist developing countries in meeting energy-efficiency goals and in slowing deforestation.
For enviros holding out hope for Copenhagen, the Podesta-Pachauri statement is a major downer. The two are dramatically depressing expectations—and plotting out an alternative track to the Copenhagen process. What makes Podesta's pessimism especially noteworthy is that for years he was a mentor to Todd Stern, who is now the senior US negotiator for Copenhagen. The two are close friends, and it is unlikely—make that, unimaginable—that Podesta, an experienced political player in Washington (who was a chief of staff for President Clinton), would express such a discouraging position on Copenhagen without consulting Stern.
Given that Podesta is quite well-informed on these matters, this appears to be a strong signal that the Obama administration—as the Senate puts off acting on climate change legislation—is giving up on achieving any grand accord to redress climate change this December. It's a stinging vote of no confidence in Copenhagen—and a sign that Obama administration officials, believing they cannot steer the nations of the world toward a meaningful treaty, are looking for a Plan B.
UPDATE: John Podesta posted a response to the above piece. Here it is in full:
While Mother Jones’ David Corn is an excellent reporter, he is a lousy tealeaf reader. Mr. Corn misread a recent article by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Nobel Peace Prize winner, and myself in advance of the G20 summit, incorrectly concluding our purpose was to downplay expectations on behalf of the Administration. Mr. Corn’s interpretation of our piece is inaccurate. Dr. Pachauri, one of the world’s foremost advocates for strong global action on climate change, and I both recognize that significant challenges remain in advance of the U.N. summit in December. But we are confident that the international community is poised to make substantial progress on climate change in Copenhagen, and that the U.S. is now in a position to exercise renewed leadership in pursuit of a best-case climate scenario.
The purpose of our September 23 piece was to emphasize the importance of climate change in advance of the G20 meetings and encourage the world’s top emitters to seize an important opportunity to take concrete steps to move forward in advance of December’s summit. It is not news that the divide between the unwieldy groups of developed and developing countries have stalled climate talks in the past and that they are drifting again. It is, however, noteworthy that major emitters have recently utilized new channels — the Administration’s Major Economies Forum, for example, as well as the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue — to lay the groundwork for a new climate agreement in Copenhagen. We think this is an important development and should be pursued whenever opportunities, like this week’s summit, arise. Our piece urged leaders at the G20 to pursue concrete actions prior to Copenhagen on issues such as financing arrangements, technology cooperation, and deforestation prevention to increase the chances of success in December.
Even in the midst of global economic crisis, climate change has remained at the top of the agenda both in the United States and in key countries around the world. There is broad consensus that the effects of climate change are not only real, but will be devastating to developed and developing countries alike if the international community fails to agree on a global emissions reduction strategy soon. The road ahead is not without obstacles, which our piece pointed out. But the fate of Copenhagen is far from sealed — and it is my strong belief that the Obama Administration is committed to doing all it can to lead the world into a low-carbon, clean energy future.
It still seems to me that by declaring that the pre-Copenhagen talks are at an "impasse" and that the prospects of reaching a treaty is "grim"—possibly realistic assessments—Podesta and Pachauri, two champions of countering climate change, are assuming that the climate summit will fall short of what's been the perceived public goal (a comprehensive global accord that leads to a serious reduction in emissions) and are now pushing for alternative mulitlateral actions and decisions that would mark real progress in redressing climate change (though perhaps not as much progress as a full-fledged and tough treaty). This might be a reasonable approach—maybe the only option—given the well-known conflicts in the pre-Copenahgen negotiations and the US Senate's inability to produce climate change legislation prior to the gathering. But if the Obama administration—which Podesta helped set up—has reached a similar conclusion, that would indeed be noteworthy and represent something of a shift (even if a necessary one) in its efforts to address global warming.
You can follow David Corn's postings and media appearances via Twitter.
WTF?
No, it isn't.
Someone close to Obama wrote a warning to the international community and a strong call to action with a new approach. How does that signal a lack of commitment on Obama's part? I see just the opposite.
I don't believe the constant defeatist cynicism about Obama helps the progressive movement. He mentions clean energy and climate change constantly but it doesn't stop the hand-wringers from accusing him of dropping the issue. "Where's the hope?" cliches are an easy way to boost your progressive creds but they're becoming less intellectually relevant all the time.
Corn would do better to recommend specific things Obama could be doing differently instead of spinning speculative generalized anxiety.
He's the President, not us.
I appreciate what you're saying but I didn't run for the Presidency. I vote for leaders to, you know, lead. If Obama can't get it done, then he's failed. It's not my responsibility as a voter to figure out how to get the agenda I was promised accomplished. It's Obama's.
Aunt Linda rates this a BLAH
Aunt Linda rates this a BLAH MEH OH MY YUCK QUITCHA WHINING
Obama isnt captain planet but is fixing the economy, trying to stop iran and get our health care system fixed, the horror.
amen brother
There is something called political process. I wish progressives would understand we didn't elect a dictator. Give the dude a chance!
There's a difference between "a grand accord"...
and what could still come out of Copenhagen. A grand accord suggests an entire treaty -- framework, targets both short- and long-term, more nuanced classifications for developing and developed countries & the ability to move between groups -- finished in 12 days. That'll never happen at the conference itself, and we didn't need a statement from John Podesta saying so.
What's still likely, and what the Podesta document doesn't rule out, is that the Obama administration and others could settle on a framework for a treaty -- a general, large-brush-stroke treaty with short-term targets, says, but bracketing for specific long-term targets -- and then use subsequent conferences to fill in those details. It seems to me that that is still a possibility, and a productive one.
Plus, there's always the chance that the Podesta statement is just a way to light a few fires under the butts of the right people, a warning (not that we need any more of them) sent out into the media and US political community.
Copenhagen isn't a black-and-white kind of event; it's not a matter of either there *will* be a treaty or there *won't* be one. Let's keep that in mind, though putting some much needed pressure on our leaders, as this does, undoubtedly necessary.
When does a body as large as
When does a body as large as the UN reach an agreement on anything three months before the deadline? Remember, the final details of the Bali Action Plan weren't hammered out until the final minute of the final day of the talks.
kyoto/bali/kopenhagen
Eh yahhh, only after the US delegate who tried to stop the whole thing from even coming up with an agenda for Kopenhagen had been boooed into submission by the other delegates and gave up his subversive actions.....
If Americans really want to see progress perhaps they should stop leading this planet to the ecological abyss?
Clinton did not lead, Bush did not follow, Obama ....
Lead, follow or get out of the way?
My advice: shut up, put ut and sign up for Kyoto. The lead by example, rather than berating nations like China and India that have a better track record than you.
Incrementalism is not necessarily a defeat
All or nothing presidential policies died with the Bush administration. This president is less interested in grand, possibly meaningless gestures and is more interested in an actual process that works. Even if it does come in incremental stages. It may not make every environmentalist happy but it is still far better than you would get with any Republican President. Just imagine where we would be if an effective program of incremental environmental policies were began 8 years ago.
Mike Burns
http://www.disorderlyreport.com/
obama is an impotent tool.
obama is an impotent tool. yes we can!? i think not...
Absolutely not. Give Obama a
Absolutely not. Give Obama a break – he's been in about 9 months and has had quite a full agenda. Most of his efforts have so far been spent reversing 8 years of failed policies under Bush, not to mention the years of Clinton that helped create Bush, and the 12 years before under Republican rule. I fully agree that progressives – and I'm very much one of them – need to back off a bit and give Obama a chance to succeed before writing him off. Would you rather have McCain and Palin? I'm sure that would have been great for environmental policy. Keep pushing and prodding (politely), but let's give him our support, not our angst – which only feeds the effort of the right wing to drag down Obama's Presidency. Please, give it a rest and be patient. We're moving in the right direction – change takes time and he needs Congressional support as well. People forget all too quickly that there are many conservative Democrats who helped get a majority by appealing to fairly conservative constituencies.
O'RLY?
Just what has he reversed?
I don't hear the gears changing, I hear the engine revving up - more war, more bailouts, more Bush.
What news programs are you relying on for this wonderful news that Obama is not Bush 3?
Something Stinks!
This had better NOT be due
This had better NOT be due to the comment by the intransigient SENATE that "no outside bodies are going to tell THEM what to do"!!!
WHEN are we finally going to realize that ROME had a Senate and.…
This had better NOT be due
This had better NOT be due to the comment by the intransigient SENATE that "no outside bodies are going to tell THEM what to do"!!!
WHEN are we finally going to realize that ROME had a Senate and.…
This had better NOT be due
This had better NOT be due to the comment by the intransigient SENATE that "no outside bodies are going to tell THEM what to do"!!!
WHEN are we finally going to realize that ROME had a Senate and.…
Perceived Obama Retreats
Whether true or not, whether it's just progressive hand-wringing, or just the media filling space, there's lot of chatter about the Administration backing off major parts of the Obama agenda that generated so much hope -- green economy and major move on climate change; health care; etc. Maybe we need to give the Obama administration some time to work thing out. On the other hand, one has to worry about whether the Emmanuel/Axelrod influence may be too strong. They may be too quick to compromise, concede, re-characterize because ultimately they are trying to manage and conserve political capital, but one wonders whether they believe in anything. One wonders what they would be willing to die (metaphorically in the political sense) for. They may see it as smart and pragmatic, but it may in fact be timid and a lost opportunity. But I still have hope. Give Obama some time.
What might work is that each
What might work is that each country goes home without a treaty and tries to mitigate the CONSEQUENCES of global warming in their own country. It might be best to try an "every man for himself" approach to the problem. Hasn't the UN itself said that global warming is inevitable?
If every country comes up with a plan of how to deal with the consequences at home, then the "rich" countries can ante up to deal with the changes. Big deals like this RARELY work.
Are you forgetting the "oil for food" program in Saddam Hussein's Iraq?
The Europeans couldn't even maintain their part of that bargain - forget about a Kyoto-type agreement that would mean some very serious economic and social changes. Yes, bigger than the effects of global warming itself.
One more thing: I really don't believe that human activity is the major cause of global climate change. (Please contain yourselves.) . . . The hysteria is just a concrete way for policy makers to scare people into acting now. The real agenda is to wean humankind off of carbon-fuels before the oil fields dry up and we have REAL chaos. The "global warming" argument is just an attempt to find the "handles" necessary to make national and personal lifestyle changes before we reach the uber-crisis situation in the middle of this century.
Interesting take on the
Interesting take on the situation... correct or not, we can be fairly sure that we're running out of fossil fuel. Once there's none left to burn, global warming may no longer be such a major issue.
May God Save Obama and Humanity From UC National Labs
David, a most important fact of life that Obama has to face is that his own Secretary of Energy Henry Chu was formerly a Lawrence Livermore National Lab Director while a professor at Berkeley where never-ending failures to protect and preserve Humanity from the consequences of the Keeling Curve have been a cultural value for over 50 years.
A worst- case scenario of scientific-academic failure was documented by the IEEE SPECTRUM in their March 2009 article “Fusion Factor Starts Up” (maybe):
http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/energy/nuclear/fusion-factory-starts-up
One paragraph defines the culture of failure at Berkeley that cares more for money than Humanity is:
“The project, which broke ground in 1997, was supposed to be completed in 2002, at a cost of $1.07 billion. But technical problems triggered an avalanche of construction delays and cost overruns. So in 1999, the DOE swept the decks of NIF’s management. The facility finally came in at about $3.5 billion and has met all its construction and spending targets since 2001, when its budget was adjusted to reflect what it would actually cost to complete.”
God save Humanity from “the power of money” that dominates UC National Labs scientists, as President Eisenhower gravely warned us about in his 1961 Farewell Address to the Nation:
“The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.”
How can Obama and Humanity possibly survive with a scientific culture like that?
Obama needs to talk to the American people on this too
tagged as:- solution
Obama is fighting Republicans who have no clue how the real world actually works, and Democrats more interested in saving a few coal miners' meager paychecks (and their own corporate $upport) than the fate of the species.
He must speak directly to the American people on this, and get tough in the Senate. They obviously don't get the stakes here:
http://scorpionbowl.blogspot.com/2009/09/six-degrees-to-devastation.html
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Who cares ... the best thing
Who cares ... the best thing about a tree is what you do with it AFTER you cut it down ...Global warming . green this green that blah blah ...I dig my Hummer H2 ... and I leave every light in the house on all day ... you ppl disgust me !!
Poised For Progress At The U.N. Climate Summit In Copenhagen
While Mother Jones’ David Corn is an excellent reporter, he is a lousy tealeaf reader. Mr. Corn misread a recent article by Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Nobel Peace Prize winner, and myself in advance of the G20 summit, incorrectly concluding our purpose was to downplay expectations on behalf of the Administration. Mr. Corn’s interpretation of our piece is inaccurate. Dr. Pachauri, one of the world’s foremost advocates for strong global action on climate change, and I both recognize that significant challenges remain in advance of the U.N. summit in December. But we are confident that the international community is poised to make substantial progress on climate change in Copenhagen, and that the U.S. is now in a position to exercise renewed leadership in pursuit of a best-case climate scenario.
The purpose of our September 23 piece was to emphasize the importance of climate change in advance of the G20 meetings and encourage the world’s top emitters to seize an important opportunity to take concrete steps to move forward in advance of December’s summit. It is not news that the divide between the unwieldy groups of developed and developing countries have stalled climate talks in the past. It is, however, noteworthy that major emitters have recently utilized new channels — the Administration’s Major Economies Forum, for example, as well as the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue — to lay the groundwork for a new climate agreement in Copenhagen. We think this is an important development and should be pursued whenever opportunities, like last week’s summit, arise. Our piece urged leaders at the G20 to pursue concrete actions prior to Copenhagen on issues such as financing arrangements, technology cooperation, and deforestation prevention to increase the chances of success in December.
Even in the midst of global economic crisis, climate change has remained at the top of the agenda both in the United States and in key countries around the world. There is broad consensus that the effects of climate change are not only real, but will be devastating to developed and developing countries alike if the international community fails to agree on a global emissions reduction strategy soon. The road ahead is not without obstacles, which our piece pointed out. But the fate of Copenhagen is far from sealed — and it is my strong belief that the Obama Administration is committed to doing all it can to lead the world into a low-carbon, clean energy future.
http://thinkprogress.org/2009/09/26/corn-kyoto/
David, You are Right
David-- thanks for your post.
I just posted this response to Joe Romm's Climate Progress blog. The major problem is the highly inflated expectations on the part of people like Yvo de Boer and Ban Ki Moon, which were initially shared by people who are now aggressively lowering those expectations. Copenhagen, as you define it, is indeed dead. But that is not a bad thing--there can still be an agreement that makes progress built around proactive and pragmatic steps--which is a different debate altogether.
"Joe,
Corn is speaking of the prospects of achieving a “comprehensive climate change agreement” at Copenhagen that will lead to a serious reduction in emissions. I don’t believe we will see that in Copenhagen, and that in this sense, the Copenhagen that many environmentalists are hoping for is dead. This is not a bad thing. Expectations have been far too high for Copenhagen to begin with. It is not as if nations will stop working proactively to implement coordinated global action addressing climate change if nations aren’t all able to sign the same document in December. Yet these are the expectations that have been created by people like Yvo De Boer and Ban Ki-Moon who have been acting like Copenhagen is humanity’s last chance to avoid Armageddon. You may have moved passed this frame, but it still exists as the dominant frame among many players in this debate. And if this is the dominant frame, then yes, Copenhagen is dead. That doesn’t mean there won’t be progress.
What’s needed is a healthy dose of realism, and a deep breath, which is something I’m hoping you can provide for your readers on this blog. "
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Rumours of Copenhagen's death exaggerated
David, thanks for drawing so much attention to the Podesta-Pachauri piece, which was written for the Global Climate Network and posted exclusively on its website. Take a look:
www.globalclimatenetwork.info
In fact, as it was me who originally asked both authors if they would write it, I can exclusively reveal that it most certainly isn't proclaiming the death of Copenhagen.
First, while the negotiations are at an impasse, would this not be expected until the ministers/heads of state arrive in the high-level segment to finalise things? Second, the G20 countries account for more than 80 per cent of global emissions, so on the mitigation side, it really is these countries that need to be at the forefront of a deal. Third, finance, technology and deforestation are extremely important aspects of an agreement even though targets for emissions reductions may attract much of the attention.
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obama - leader?
people are still making excuses for obama; he's only been in office "n" months; he has to clean up the mess left by bush; he'd stuck with the economic disaster; health care, etc. etc. ALL TRUE!
BUT - he is looking weak because when attacked, he immediately retreats. he needs to grow a pair. soaring speeches worked fine during the campaign when voters were desperate for change. they don't work; in fact too much exposure is counter-productive, when even his own (quarreling, fractured ) party thumbs its nose at him. with "leaders" like reid and pelosi, what do you expect???!!!
nobody is afraid of obama. congress wouldn't have dared to defy LBJ like this. with all his crimes (vietnam, for just one) LBJ was a strong leader.
obama can't make nice to those corporate whores in congress. does not get results.
where are his vaunted political skills?
EXXON-MOBILE CEOs have got
EXXON-MOBILE CEOs have got to be cheering, laughing, celebrating!!!: the hundreds of millions they have spent on lies, deception, promoting confusion, misinformation and misunderstanding as to the science behind global warming and climate change is paying off beyond their wildest; then to increase their sinister joy they have the senate and the congress of the USA so tied up in the health insurance (many partially owned by oil companies) debacle so that our elected officials cannot even think about, let alone articulate, the development of meaningful decisions leading to effective policies on any of the environmental issues with which we are confronted! WE should also remember that acccording to McKibben, who has been on this thing since the late 70s, even if we shut everything down today now this minute, turn off all the switches, turn it all off zip zero emissions--the earth will continue to slowly warm for the next 100 years! WE needed to turn this thing around in 1950--and these guys are all talking about 2050--what a bake sale we are inviting our children to!
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