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Belgrade's Burning
Ominous news coming from Belgrade, the Serbian capital, which saw a huge and very nationalistic rally today led by Serbian prime minister Vojislav Kostunica against Kosovo's declaration of independence on Sunday. "Kostunica's rally was scary. It is condensed clero- nationalism never seen before, not even in the 90s," a Belgrade-based analyst writes me. "Initiation of new generation. Messages are terrifying and the night will be tough. Groups (many drunk) are devastating everything they come upon. Many embassies are targets. Turkish embassy is the constant target—there is chaos in front of the embassy. Ambassador is in the building and they [are] ready to shoot if they break in."
Another Belgrade contact writes that independent Radio B92 is reporting that "the American embassy is on fire.....and the people are coming in .... police try to put out the people who come in." He later writes that his sister who lives near the U.S. embassy says, "Now is all peaceful ... two floors of the American embassy are still on fire but fireworkers try to locate the fire....."
MSNBC is reporting that all U.S. staff had already been evacuated from the embassy. But news services later reported that "a charred body was found in the U.S. Embassy." With all US embassy personnel accounted for, "Belgrade's Pink TV said the body appeared to be that of a rioter."
My question: How could the international community led by Washington have screwed this up so badly once again?
A Hill staffer comments on these developments: "Amazing. Everything I read/heard in the weeks leading up to the Kosovar independence announcement was that the Serbs would bitch and complain, but grudgingly accept. For what it’s worth, the Administration briefings I received in the preceding months from [State Department officials] were generally assuring—they were on top of the situation and closely coordinating with European allies."
A U.S. official says: "The Serbs are famous for 'dancing around the campfires of myth and distorted history.' Unfortunately it now appears that today’s campfire is made out of our Embassy. If it were up to me we would break dip relations, cancel all assistance programs, and expel all their dips from DC. Using US embassies for either target practice or kindling is becoming too common."
Meantime, the New York Times' Dan Bilefsky reports:
Serbs in northern Kosovo on Wednesday continued what appeared to be a drive to force a partition three days after the ethnic Albanian majority declared the province's independence from Serbia. A mob of 300 Serbs wielding clubs and tools gathered on a road near this small village of ethnic Albanians in northern Kosovo, prompting NATO to send armored vehicles and tanks to head them off.
"Of course the Serbs are now going to force a partition of northern Kosovo, playing by the same logic that was used to take the province away from Serbia," one astute Balkan watcher observes.
Does the international community have a game plan for that widely anticipated development? What about for if the Serbs in Bosnia decide to try to break away to join Serbia, again?
"I am convinced, all this mess is well coordinated and at the background of this is the struggle of Kostunica to stay in power," a knowledgeable Kosovar Albanian contact in the Kosovo capital Pristina said, noting that the new Serbian government is not constituted yet. "Kosovo is always an excuse (unfortunately). They already strated shouting at each other, [recently re-elected Serbian president Boris] Tadic's people against Kostuncia and vice-versa"
"The north won't be divided for now, but maybe in the future," the Pristina contact adds.
(Photo: The U.S. embassy tonight. Credit: Beta, via B92).
Comments
"My question: how could the international community led by Washington have screwed this up so badly once again?"
Simple. Remember who leads Washington. It was predictable they'd make completely wrong predictions.
Posted by: Eric Ferguson on 02/21/08 at 10:31 AM Respond
Who is to say that just because things are getting nuts it was a bad decision? We recognized a group of people who are declaring their own nation because they are tired of massive persecution. Now the persecutors are angry... and this is a surprise??
Keep in mind that large groups of people like to destroy things. They do it for reasons of personal pride and outrage (LA riots), for reasons of nationalism (Serbs), and just to have a good time (Detroit winning the NBA championship) I am guessing these riots are a combination of no.1 and no.2.
Posted by: eh on 02/21/08 at 11:02 AM Respond
excuse me, I meant to write
"a combination of no.2 and no.3"
IE, they are rioting somewhat due to nationalism and somewhat because, hey, who *doesn't* want to burn stuff down?
Posted by: eh on 02/21/08 at 11:03 AM Respond
Nobody that knows Serbia or the Balkans for that matter should be surprised at the lack of police protection for the targetted Embassy whenever things blow badly as described above. The Greek Embassy in Skopje had a similar problem on Monday or Tuesday and took some damage. Not enough cops aroud when the force of "public opinion" (this even existed in Ceausescu's Romania-on cue) decides to be heard.
Don't think its fair to blame Amembassy Belgrade or State, believe me they would have prepared. In fact the folks in the US Embassy Belgrade country team would have ordered in reinforcements (Marines) long ago.
The preparations for the partition of Kosovo is what we need to be watching.
Posted by: Valkanios on 02/21/08 at 11:35 AM Respond
What is "clero-nationalism" ?
Posted by: MOttsiw on 02/21/08 at 12:49 PM Respond
This is another example of why the human race should not be considered civilized. If there are any space aliens watching, I don't blame them for not wanting to make open contact with this race of arguably insane people.
Posted by: Bill G on 02/21/08 at 12:57 PM Respond
These tensions were centuries old when they exploded into what we now call World War One.
Nothing has happened that would make them disappear.
They don't seem to know how to solve their problems, as they haven't managed any lasting solution after centuries of being at each other's throats.
What makes anyone believe we, half-a-world removed, can produce some genius from our State Department with a solution, today, no matter WHICH of our major parties is in charge at the moment?
Haven't we learned ANYTHING after a century+ of meddling in the affairs of other nations?
Posted by: JFW on 02/21/08 at 2:22 PM Respond
As per usual the normal hyperventilating and exaggeration.
Yes, some embassies were attacked, but they were limited and the number of people involved were in their hundreds.
Considering that anything upto 1 million Serbs were demonstrating peacefully today on the streets of Belgrade (and then went home), one has to wonder where exactly journalists reporting these events get their sense of proportion.
How have 'we' got here? Because the 'great powers' could never resist meddling in the Balkans - you know 'balance of power' and all that.
Is Kosovo the 'last domino' as we have been so often told in the media? Well the Kosovo albanians refuse to recognize the border between Kosovo and Macedonia. What does that spell?
Kosovo is now a 'dependent' state, much as how it was an 'dependent' autonomous republic during Tito's times.
Poverty, lack of opportunity, little economy will yet again lead to massive riots in a year or two when nothing improves and the EU will try and solve the problem by throwing a few more billion euros at the region.
It's identical to Tito's failed policies towards Kosovo. Funny that.
Still, if only Tito had handed over Kosovo to Enver Hoxa's Albania at the conclusion of the Second World War - the Kosovo Albanians would have been much better off....
P.S. Congratulations to the West for lighting the fuse and emasculating the UN and international law. These acts will come back to haunt us.
Posted by: Alx on 02/21/08 at 2:28 PM Respond
with respect, you're really not asking the right questions. as usual, the primary US consideration is our military footprint (the effects of our international posture on civilian populations is seldom considered). this is blowback. we're probably gonna see a lot of it over the next decade.
Posted by: sleepy on 02/21/08 at 3:15 PM Respond
["this is blowback"]
Don't tell Rudy Guiliani that.
Why, he's never heard of such a ridiculous notion...;)
Posted by: Droolius Sneezer on 02/21/08 at 4:48 PM Respond
"clero-nationalism" -- is clerical-nationalism
mix of the church and nationalist elements of the state
Posted by: writer on 02/21/08 at 8:38 PM Respond
Today the NYT writes about the warnings to the Serbs over Thursdays attacks:
"Diplomats Warn Serbia over Embassy Attacks"
Now I am scared. I say we can expect much worse from Belgrade in Kosovo after such a tepid Great Power/Quint/EU reaction, especially from Washington which can really afford to cut ties without much threat of retaliation (now). We need to completely sever diplomatic ties and cut aid programs off now, not just institute a (standard) light drawdown. Serbia's PfP status in NATO should be cancelled immediately - this was a special present to Serbia from its few supporters in the NSC a few years back that has gotten us nothing. Serbia's behavior is unacceptable and as the writer tells us - some senior US officials are thinking that more serious signals need to be sent. But as usual from Rice's State Department and her senior staff, its just a light puff. Keep on burning embassies....you won't pay a penny...
Posted by: Valkanios on 02/22/08 at 12:15 PM Respond
Kudos to the American embassy for getting all the people out - i.e no repeat of Teheran. Who cares if the football hooligans burn up a few rooms. And MacDonald's will survive. I had coffee at that one a week ago and it was full of Serbs who want burgers and a good clean atmosphere (like all MacDonald's in Europe). The UNMIK also gave up a couple of rent a trailers at the border so the Serbs could blow off their steam. Good decision. Nobody got killed. The French and Italians had APCs but they didn't attack. Kosovo is a basketcase. No economy. I talked with some guys (Kosavar/Albanians) and they are more pissed that they have no jobs than there are Serbs across the river. The US made the right decision..put a stick in Putin's eye and then made the EU stand up to the bear. Good choice. Nice finesse.
Posted by: TiranaMike on 02/24/08 at 12:42 PM Respond
Dear Tirana Mike:
...and don't forget, the EU gets to PAY. There's the finesse...
Posted by: Valkanios on 02/26/08 at 2:32 PM Respond
And yet, I cannot help but wonder what James Lyon (ICG's man in Belgrade) was thinking when he said:
"Kosovo plays an integral role in Serbian identity," says Belgrade-based James Lyon, senior adviser on the Balkans for the International Crisis Group. "Without Kosovo, they suffer an identity crisis that is much more serious than just losing territory."
But he added that "the overriding factor is how easy it is to mobilize the crowds. You could compare it with mobilizing an anti-Muslim rally in New York the day after Sept. 11."
Yes, he did just compare the U.S. recognition of Kosovo to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Perhaps now it will be easier for Americans to understand why the Serbs are so upset.
Posted by: FactFinder on 03/02/08 at 2:56 PM Respond
We have highter income,but less morals
Posted by: World Of Warcraft Gold on 03/20/08 at 12:15 AM Respond
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