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Clinton: Damn the Pundits, Full Speed Ahead
The morning after, the Clinton crew was unbowed. As Hillary Clinton on Tuesday night was being creamed by Barack Obama in North Carolina and eking out a narrow victory in Indiana, pundits throughout Cable News Land were pronouncing her dead, dead, dead. Tim Russert said the race was over. But when a reporter on the campaign's morning conference call, asked Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, if there had been "any discussions about not going forward," he said, "No discussions." And he seemed to mean it.
On the call, Wolfson, deputy communications director Phil Singer, and chief strategist Geoff Garin were forward-looking. They claimed to be "happy" about the 1.8-percent win in Indiana--but without sounding at all jubilant about the squeaker. As for North Carolina--where she lost by 14 points--they claimed "progress" there and pointed to the fact that she beat Obama among white voters by 24 points (as if the increasing racial polarization within the Democratic primary electorate is something to celebrate). They acknowledged that Clinton had in recent weeks loaned her campaign nearly $6.5 million--and claimed it was a sign of her commitment to moving ahead and, of course, fighting for real people. They repeated the campaign's call to seat the disputed delegations of Florida and Michigan, and they indicated they were ready to rumble in the upcoming primaries. Voters in those states, Garin said, should be given the ability "to express their voice." He added, "All we are doing is suggesting the process ought to play out."
In other words, damn the pundits, full speed ahead. It appeared that Clinton--faced with three alternatives: fighting on as if nothing has changed, dropping out, or planning a graceful exit strategy--has for the time being settled on option one.
But the voyage got a lot rockier after Indiana and North Carolina. As the cable news analysts pointed out, it is now practically a mathematical certainty that Obama will end the primaries next month with a lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote, even if the results in Florida and Michigan are included. So Clinton has run out of metrics. The days of fuzzy math are over. There will be no measure by which she will be able to argue she is the voters' choice. All the campaign is left with is an opinion: Clinton can do better than Obama against John McCain in the fall. Clinton and her lieutenants do have stats to cite, notably her performance among working-class voters (meaning, white working-class voters). She has demonstrated, Wolfson maintained on the call, "a proven ability" to win over these voters, while Obama has not. This is, he added, "the crux of the argument" that the Clinton campaign will be making to the superdelegates. And in the next primary states--West Virginia (May 13), Kentucky (May 20), Oregon (May 20)--Clinton will try to show once more that she fares better among lunch-pail Democrats.
So now Clinton, who passionately insists that democracy demands that the Florida and Michigan contest be counted and that voters in the last few states be granted the opportunity to state their preferences, is left with nothing but the most elitist of strategies: she must convince party insiders--the 300 or so not-yet-committed superdelegates--to vote against the popular will of the voters who participated in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. On the conference call, I asked Garin whether his campaign is essentially stuck with a "nullification strategy." He disputed his campaign's game plan was anything like a "nullification strategy." All delegates--pledged delegates and superdelegates--have "equal moral weight in the process," he said, and the rules of the party "anticipate there will be delegates" who will make "good faith decisions."
That is so. But for Clinton to win, these superdelegates will have to say that they know better than the voters. It is certainly permissible under Democratic Party rules. But might such an action blow apart the party? There is no way for the Clinton campaign to orchestrate this strategy politely or calmly and wrap it up quickly after the primaries conclude on June 3. After all, no superdelegate commitment is solid until he or she actually votes at the convention. Even if Clinton is able to sway enough superdelegates and win the necessary number of commitments, Obama will not fold his tent and accept this as a deal done. He would fight for those superdelegates and, if need be, fight the process. There would be a bloody battle from early June until the first ballot at the convention in late August. Nullification cannot be accomplished neatly. Clinton and her crew must realize that.
I asked Garin if he foresaw any problem if the candidate with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes was not chosen at the convention. "When we get to June 3, we'll have a very close result," he said. "This might raise the question of how close is close." He didn't answer the question.
Right now, the Clintonites are saying they're not bailing. But in for a penny, in for a pound. The only way she can triumph is by first persuading superdelegates to vote against the wishes of primary voters and caucus-goers and by then mounting an ugly fight that will last for months until the convention--a fight that would likely create consequences that would resonate far beyond the convention.
It may be full speed ahead for Clinton and her gang, but that's only because her finger is on the button and she is considering pushing it.
Comments
I can't see her options being all available if her supporters bail out or give her the "talk".
McGovern is right - she will bow out shortly. She is not dumb. At this point she will cause further damage to her self if she persists.
At what point does she become irrelevant? Let's face it, she lasted this long thanks entirely to a media created circus. They needed something to fill the void between quickly settled primary races and the general election. Clinton was their star (and very willing) clown.
In the dead of winter an election the following November seems a long way off. Now that its spring, it seems much closer. People's attention is beginning to turn to the choice they'll need to make in the fall. Hillary clinton won't be part of that choice, and everyone knows it. Its time for the main event. Last night there was no mistake, Barack Obama switched from primary to general election mode. I would be shocked if Democratic Party leaders haven't already made "those calls" to the Clinton camp this morning.
Hillary Clinton may stay in the race for whatever reason she choses, but last night may have been her swan song. Once Obama and McCain square off she will be relegated to the back page. Her story's been played out and now its old and stale.
I think this week will see alot of super delegates make the move to Obama's side. I think we'll see some who were supporting Clinton switch as well as notable Clinton suppoerters switch. Many of those people will want to jockey for position post-Clinton. Over the next couple of weeks, I'm guessing Hillary clinton gets less and less media attention as the focus shifts to Obama/McCain.
She might not drop out, but she'll be dropped.
Posted by: SaintZak on 05/07/08 at 10:36 AM Respond
I heard one theory that she'd wait for her victories in Kentucky and W Virginia to go out on a high note.
Posted by: Al Martinez on 05/07/08 at 10:43 AM Respond
I'm voting for Nader. Why? Because I can. However, I fully realize the dems are most likely going to win the election unless the GOP engages in enough low key election rigging to tip the scales in favor of McCain. I wish Clinton would back out and convince Obama to pick her as his VP. He has such a powerful charisma, something that can get more people to pay attention to all the DC shenanagins and stop electing douche-bags. And with her comes Bill, which in my opinion is good experience to have on his side in addition to her experience and intelligence. Especially if, god forbid, someone can't handle the thought of a black man running the free world and assasinates him.
It's a terrible sign if she's dipping into her own wealth to keep the campaign alive so far into the game. The first comment made a good point that its going to hurt her repuation. Her hanging on and all the dirty sh*t her campaign has been doing may have hurt her in helping back Obama to smash the republican stranglehold of the government.
Posted by: just call me....roy on 05/07/08 at 11:01 AM Respond
Anyone else seriously bothered by her "electability" claim? Isn't she saying that "the white people are racist and won't vote for the black guy. And because of private prejudice, you super delegates must overcome the will of the voters." Isn't that exactly what her argument boils down to? It is not like she cites polls when she makes her "white fright" argument. She appeals directly to the "white fright" lurking within the super delegates and tries to get them to listen to that instead of math. I am very bothered by her adoption of such tactics.
Posted by: Jason Wolfe on 05/07/08 at 12:05 PM Respond
roy, you think that much of Obama but you're voting for Nader? That make no sense. I supported Nader in 2000 in a safely blue state, and I did it because the Clintons and the DLC had alienated me from the party. I thought a message needed to be sent. Argue with my reasoning if you want, but now we have a Democratic candidate who opposed invading Iraq and relies on the grassroots much more than on big money. I think the message was heard. Why support Nader now when we have a good candidate and the country is in crisis?
And just to shoot down the final hope the superdelegates will overturn the pledged delegates: not a chance. The declared supers are tied. The undeclared are to cowardly to risk alienating anyone with the nomination unsettled, so does anyone think they'll have the guts to overturn the pledged delegates? Only if Obama develops problem a lot bigger than Rev. Wright.
Posted by: Eric Ferguson on 05/07/08 at 12:31 PM Respond
It's not a racist claim, but a statistical one. wacth any new show sometime and they say it too. Over and over Obama can't get the majority of working class whites- core democrats- to vote for him. It's why he can't close the deal. 'Bitter' comments and associations with radicals don't help him any.
I'm more disturbed with the suggestions that blacks will riot in the streets if the superdelegates pick Clinton over Obama. Like blacks are animals with no control over themselves if things don't go the way they want. Like most Americans, they can deal with the process peacefully.
Posted by: Sherry W on 05/07/08 at 12:33 PM Respond
I haven't seen the math that says she can't be ahead in popular vote if FL and MI are counted. According to RCP he's about 200,000 behind if you give Obama the estimates for those caucuses that didn't report votes. She's way ahead in WV and KY polls (around 30%) so with the turnouts we're seeing she could catch up. Then it's Oregon vs Puerto Rico to determine the winner (the other 2 states are very small in votes).
Her biggest danger is she caves in to the campaign by the Obama team to win by default. There is no difference to Nov prospects whether the race ends now in early June so it's quite disreputable to be putting on this kind of pressure.
Posted by:
zebedee
on 05/07/08 at 12:55 PM Respond
David,
The next time you are on a call with the Clinton people and they say the Florida and Michigan delegations need to be seated for reasons of being able to "express their voice" or for some other civil rights-style argument, please ask the following question:
"Since you had agreed to the national party's campaign rules not to campaign in Florida or Michigan without voicing an opposition to the civil rights implications, does your current concern with their votes being counted mean that your commitment to civil rights only applies when you personally benefit?"
Posted by: Randolph Grenso on 05/07/08 at 1:09 PM Respond
Dear Senator Clinton,
New Math. Old Math. I don't think you you should drop out of the race. Here's some ideas.... You can filibuster the vote at the convention. You can cut off the electricity to the convention hall. You can fake a heart attack. You can take Chairwoman Pelosi hostage. You can take Sen. Obama hostage. You can go to court to enjoin the convention and have the primaries declared unconstitutional. You can continue to throw the kitchen sink and scorch the earth. You can cry. You can throw tantrums. You can tell more lies. You can crown yourself with the crown of Charlemagne, turn this democratic party upside down and inside out until you get your way...
Blow through your husband's funds and every other naive supporter's funds on this planet. God knows, this money is meant for you. To hell with the unfortunate New York souls that could desperately use financial support.
Corporate raider, Gordon Gekko quoted it in the movie Wall Street - "Greed is Good". Follow his playbook and continue to put your scruples, morals, values and ethics aside to win anyway you can.
Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead!
Posted by: James on 05/07/08 at 2:05 PM Respond
I wonder how many Republican voters in Indiana took Rush Limbaugh's advice and voted for Hillary Clinton? When asked about this reverse voting Hillary said, "Be careful what you wish for." Her answer seemed consistent with some of her recent campaign strategies, which I've found dissapointing.
Sean Hannity indicated on Faux News that he approves of the voting trick - hardly any surprise there. It's like asking Karl Rove what's fair and balanced.
Roy's voting for Nader so in essence, he's not voting. In November 2000 the so-called "protest votes" for Nader helped deliver Emperor George and Big Dick Cheney (the real president). How important were those "protest votes" after that clamity?
If the Super-Delegates (the true elites) trump the pledged delegates and/or the popular vote they'll split the party and they know it. I don't see that happening.
Anybody, and I mean ANYBODY, would make a better president than Mr. Bush or Mr. Cheney. Excuse me, I mean Mr. McCain.
Posted by: The Democrat on 05/07/08 at 2:16 PM Respond
zebedee: I think you have a typo in your comment. RCP has Obama as about 200,000 ahead (not behind) in the popular vote if you include MI & FL (and estimate in 4 caucus states that didn't report votes).
OK is slightly smaller than KY and Clinton is polling in KY at about the same margins that she won in OK. She gained about 90,000 in the popular vote in OK, which, if she were to repeat that in KY, it would close the gap obviously, but it wouldn't seal the deal. WV is small enough that any popular vote gains there would most likely be wiped away by Oregon, a much more populous state (in comparison) where Obama is polling high and turnout is likely to be particularly high due to it being a mail-in primary.
There is nothing "disreputable" about suggesting she should get out of the race. It would be virtually impossible to regain the lead unless something catastrophic happening to Obama. The majority of the superdelegates are going to fall behind the person who has won the majority of pledged delegates because they would gain nothing by rocking the boat, as others have noted. So asking why Clinton is still in the race, when her chances of winning are non-existent, is a very valid question.
Posted by: JP on 05/07/08 at 2:26 PM Respond
Time to go. Of course she is no elitist, but loaning a few million is nice.
Posted by: Tom Edgar on 05/07/08 at 2:40 PM Respond
To Eric
Actually my reasons are completely different from yours. I didn't vote in the last election and I've only started to really feel that anger at our elected officials ignoring huge problems that will take more than hearings and a few good slogans to solve. I don't see a vote for Nader as a protest vote nor have I ever felt any alienation from either party. I see Nader and think here's a guy whose pretty much devoted his whole life to protecting the welfare of the public and wants to change things like our f*cked up foreign policy and stop giving 10 billion + dollars a year in military aid to countries like Egypt and Pakistan. Never read any of his books and never donated to any of his campaigns.
However, he looks like he's recently had a stroke, he's old...really old, and quite frankly too many people will say "he can't win" so he can't win. I'll change my mind if polls are showing a tight race. God knows McCain will screw up things even more.
Posted by: just call me....roy on 05/07/08 at 3:38 PM Respond
Talk about racial polarization - how about 90% of African Americans votig for Obama - or is it only relevant on one side when she hasa point to make -
The pundits are the ones who created this mess with their swooning over Obama - who - to me is a whole lot of nothing - Tim Russert isn'
t supposed to have an opinion - remember?
Posted by: Deborah Elaine on 05/07/08 at 3:43 PM Respond
The longer this goes on, the deeper the Democrats' wounds will be. Hillary is willing to tear the party apart and sabotage the election for a shot at the top of the ticket. Or maybe now she's trying to force Obama to name her as running mate, which would prove a fatal mistake. More hardball from her and the Democrats will strike out in November. It's time she bowed out.
Posted by: AlexLawyer on 05/07/08 at 8:11 PM Respond
What Obama supporters fail utterly to realize is that behind Mrs. Clinton are HER supporters that number very close to half the Democratic Party voters. Is it that easy for the Obama camp just to dismiss those voters as irrelevant and accept only what they want??? No, Clinton supporters will not en masse back Obama eventhough the media has done everything to paint a negative picture of Mrs. Clinton. Nor have the Obama supporters beend kind to her. Just read the blogs particularly on Realclearpolitics.com.
The Problem for the Obama voters is now they will have to come crawling to the Clinton supporters if they want Obama to even stand a chance of not getting wiped out totally. That is not going to happen. Obama will be lucky to carry five states in the general election. It could be as large a defeat as McGovern got.
Posted by: Indiana Joe on 05/08/08 at 8:47 AM Respond
I take offense to Clinton saying because I am a white senior woman I won't vote for Obama....what she should know is that I would not vote for Hillary.
Posted by: mary on 05/08/08 at 8:54 AM Respond
This claim about "association with radicals" seems too much of a stretch in my view. I think it's entirely possible that Obama listened to Wright's sermons on various topics for years and agreed with some while disagreeing with others. That was my relationship to my church. I was baptized and confirmed by a priest I didn't like much at all. When his sermons weren't boring, I found them contrary to my beliefs. You can't really choose your pastor.
The "relationship" with the anarchist has not been shown to be substantive at all. It's just throwing names around, hoping something will stick.
And there's also no evidence that white working-class voters have actually changed their allegiances to move away from Obama, is there?
Posted by: miles77 on 05/08/08 at 9:29 AM Respond
90% of black people have not voted for Obama. 90% of registered black democrats who voted in the primary have. Let's not forget, black people have shown every willingness (when our votes have been counted) to vote for white candidates. Let's also note that a year ago, HR Clinton was polling far ahead of Barack Obama and the media was questioning whether he was "black enough." Obviously, many black voters are looking at their options and making up their minds. Let's stop insulting all black voters just because a very few might be voting "simply based on race" -- the same number that I would imagine of white voters who are voting simply based on race and the specious argument that Obama lacks qualification/represents affirmative action run amok/represents black separatism/will only favor blacks.
Posted by: miles77 on 05/08/08 at 9:35 AM Respond
I happen to be a "white lunch-pail Democrat" who supports Obama. The big question for the fall is whether those Clinton supporting "lunch-pail Democrats" will support Obama if nominated in the fall when it's either Obama or McCain. Either one can beat McCain, but Obama will end up the next president as it's just not the Republicans year. Long story short we will end up with our first Black president and if he can follow through on his promises there may be more minorities in the White House in the future. I am a blue collar white American, but an American above all and Obama is just what this country needs to change the game in this country and in D.C.
Posted by: Charles on 05/08/08 at 1:45 PM Respond
I am all for Obama winning the WH in november at all cost, knowing fully that he's been more rhetoric than substance and half his supporters are in for a big disappointment, only because a presidential campaign in a crisis is not the best time to try and start a bottom-up movement. but i fully expect him to start one AS SOON AS he's elected. or else.
Posted by: junghi B. on 05/08/08 at 3:30 PM Respond
When thinking about the electability fo Obama versus Hillary in the general election, it seems to me that everyone has forgotten the very large gender gap in Hillary's support.Men will flock to McCain in droves (or just stay out) if Hillary were to be the democratic nominee.I know lots of liberal white guys like myself, and not a one likes Hillary. We would like some other woman candidate for president, just not her.
Posted by: geoffrey bays on 05/08/08 at 10:20 PM Respond
There is no reason hillary should drop out, she has every reason to stay in this race. She is the only person with the qualifications in this race. Barack Obamawama has manipulated the caucusas that is the only reason he is ahead in dedegates. That doesnt mean he is the best canidate in november. He is not getting the moderate democrate vote. That is his fault and nobody eles. If Hillary is not the nominee will be voting for McCain for sure!!! Barack is a empty suit!
Posted by: beth frank on 05/10/08 at 5:18 PM Respond
Beth, when you look at the numbers, Obama might lose some of the moderate democratic vote but he makes up for that in his ability to draw republicans and the youth. Those two groups will give him the win in november.
Posted by: Crian on 05/11/08 at 4:43 AM Respond
Beth by "manipulated the caucases" don't you mean that Obama "won" the caucuses and therefore has more delegates. Hillary is losing the nomination because she has run a disastrous campaign. She claimed that Obama is elitist but how much more elitist could she have been than to assume she was entitled to the nomination the day after "Super Tuesday." She surrounded herself with incompetent advisors. She blew
her financing that was far ahead of any other candidate in the beginning. She has loaned her campaign 11 million dollars from her personal funds in order to stay in the race. She resorted to negative politics that the voters are sick and tired of. She blatantly and stupidly lied about ducking bullets on the runway in Bosnia when in fact she was signing autographs on the tarmac. She changed the position of the goalposts every time Obama scored a touchdown. After agreeing to the rules laid down in Florida and Michigan she now daily whines about how the delegates should be hers. How can Hillary claim to be the one most qualified to lead our nation when she has been such a miserable failure in managing her own campaign? Perhaps the biggest liability of electing Hillary president is that we would also elect Bill who has lately has been exhibiting erratic behavior at rallies. I find humorous the argument that Obama cannot win because Hillary has the support of the "uneducated", (ignorant) voters. What is ignorant are those who vow to withhold their vote in November because their candidate did not win the nomination. Really, considering everything, does HRC deserve the nomination? Evidently, the super delegates who are pledging their support to Obama every day don't think so. It's tiresome reading the posts of outraged females who overlook or ignore Hillary's lack of judgment, integrity and competence solely because she is a woman. West Virginia and Kentucky will be interesting. How many people will turn out to vote for the "presumptive" loser? When Hillary came to Southern Oregon after the primaries last week the auditorium was half empty. She held a fund raiser in which the tickets sold for $2500 and raised only $100,000 which means only 40 people bought a ticket. It was reported that she sneaked out the back door when it was over.
Posted by: eliduc on 05/11/08 at 8:21 AM Respond
Hillary has EVERY right to continue. IT IS NOT OVER. And....by the way....you REPUBLICANS out there who are trying to screw up this election (data bears it out) by voting for Obama in the primaries and then switching to vote for McCain in the General Election are cutting your own throats. All my Republican neighbors switched to Dem to cast a false vote for Obama and are now switched back ready to vote REPUBLICAN. This distorts the "popular" vote for Obama - HE IS NOT POPULAR....he is getting the BLACK vote and the Republican vote.... I have NEVER seen such a disgusting Media display of partisanship and hatred for Hillary, the more competent, experienced, candidate. Obama is inexperienced, a liar, a puppet and doesn't do HALF the work Hillary does - taking vacations during the campaign trail, speaking at 1 to her 20 stops, going to Washington to parlay the Super Delegates. The Super Delegates responsibility is to look at these facts. I am ashamed of our government for putting up with a candidate like Obama dne letting the Republicans perform their dirty tricks over and over again. The Republican bought media are supporting him to the hilt.
Posted by: Joe on 05/12/08 at 1:48 PM Respond
Joe, other than the Senate, her first elected office, exactly what experience does Hillary have? You say Obama is a liar, but how many whoppers has Hillary told? Obama lobbied the superdelegates, but the Clintons have been doing so aggressively for over a year now. Your arguments are no more than special pleading.
Posted by: AlexLawyer on 05/12/08 at 9:07 PM Respond
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Posted by: capt - Hussein on 05/07/08 at 10:16 AM Respond