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Mathematical Notes in the Wake of the Primary's End

We finally have some hard answers on the popular vote.

According to Real Clear Politics, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote if you give zero votes to Obama in Michigan and/or you leave out estimates for the four caucus states that have not released popular vote totals (IA, NV, ME, WA).

However, if you use estimates for those four states and you give Obama the "uncommitted" vote in Michigan the final tally was:

Obama: 18,107,710
Clinton: 18,046,007

That's 48.1 percent to 47.9 percent. Obama's margin of victory was thinner than turnip soup, as Dan Rather would say.

Also, Open Left has a good rundown of when each candidate earned their delegates. (Obama pulled down more than Clinton in January and in February, there was essentially no difference in March, and Clinton beat Obama in April-June.) Noting that the only period where the results were truly lopsided was that post-Super Tuesday period in February, blogger tremayne notes:

Delegate-wise, Sen. Obama won the race by essentially tying Sen. Clinton on Super Duper Tuesday (can we go back to just regular-sized Super Tuesdays or smaller?) and then going on his "rest of Feb. run." 121 of his 126 pledged delegate margin occurred in this period. And incidentally, only 4 of those 11 contests were caucuses which benefited Obama by a margin of +48. The other +73 pledged delegates in this period came from primary states.

For an excellent article on how Obama's people understood the rules of the race and the impact of the calendar from the very beginning, check this out.






Comments

re math, there is also what i call the "caucus effect." as pointed out by an ed schultz listener yesterday, caucus votes understate what the popular vote would be if extrapolated to the primary format. and, barack won most if not all of these, so should be "assigned" additional popular "votes." of course, the Her Royal Clinton folks can make the argument that their demographs didnt caucus. it's all a bunch of lawyer-parsing anyway. she hurt herself with the sd's by insisting on this popular vote crap, but the problem is that a lot of folks apparently bought in, and mccain is now continuing the ruse.

Posted by: mike g on 06/04/08 at 10:42 AM  Respond

From Real Clear the actual popular vote numers are : 17,773,626 Obama and 17,822,145 Hillary. Hillary by 48,519.

Your numbers include estimates from caucuses but the astrict in that number should be reduced by 50,000 for Washington since they had a primary. The astrict reads as follows:
*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Posted by: Martin on 06/08/08 at 9:15 PM  Respond

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