Bottom of the Barrel

Going to new depths in the search for old oil

—Chart: Jeff Berlin

At the rate we're going, the Department of Energy expects conventional oil production to peak in 2050. But the end of oil won't necessarily usher in a greener future. Locked in sand, rock, natural gas, and coal are enough hydrocarbons to supply the world's oil refineries with so-called unconventional crude through most of the 21st century.

conventional oil
How it's produced: Drilling in the ground
Where it's found: Middle East, Russia, United States, elsewhere
Average production cost per barrel: $9
Greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions from production: 5 grams of carbon equivalent per megajoule
Potential output: 2,162 billion barrels
Dirty secret: 77% is controlled by state-run companies, so Big Oil is turning to unconventional sources to survive.


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enhanced oil recovery
How it's produced: CO2 is injected into old oil wells to squeeze out the last 30 to 60%.
Where it's found: United States, Middle East
Average production cost per barrel: $16
ghg emissions from production: 67% more than conventional oil
Potential output: 1,011 billion barrels
Dirty secret: Could have an environmental upside if oil companies figure out how to sequester CO2 in old wells—and guarantee it won't leak out again.

tar sands and heavy oil
How it's produced: Ore is extracted and processed into synthetic crude.
Where it's found: Canada, Venezuela
Average production cost per barrel: $23
ghg emissions from production: 151% more than conventional oil
Potential output: 1,535 billion barrels
Dirty secret: Each barrel of oil produced leaves behind two of toxic waste. Refining tar sands oil produces as much as 80% more CO2 than conventional refining.

gas-to-liquid synfuel
How it's produced: Natural gas is mixed with oxygen, purified, and processed into transportation fuels.
Where it's found: Russia, Iran, Qatar
Average production cost per barrel: $26
ghg emissions from production: 66% more than conventional oil
Potential output: 3,597 billion barrels
Dirty secret: South Africa perfected the technology in response to apartheid-era trade embargoes.

liquefied coal
How it's produced: Coal is heated and pressurized to create a gas, which is converted to fuel using the gas-to-liquid technique.
Where it's found: The largest coal reserves are in the United States, Russia, China, India, and South Africa.
Average production cost per barrel: $35
ghg emissions from production: 393% more than conventional oil
Potential output: 8,892 billion barrels
Dirty secret: Mercury is a byproduct. Last year, Senator Barack Obama cosponsored a bill that would have provided the industry with federal loans for as much as $20 million. Enviros accused him of pandering to Illinois coal interests.

oil shale
How it's produced: Oil-containing rock is mined, crushed, cooked, and injected with hydrogen.
Where it's found: Colorado, Utah, Wyoming
Average production cost per barrel: $57
ghg emissions from production: 530% more than conventional oil
Potential output: 1,451 billion barrels
Dirty secret: In 2007, former secretary of the interior Gale Norton joined Shell's oil shale team.


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Comments
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Russia's got oil, and traditionally the US and Russia were allies. Somebody break out the good stationery, and pen out a letter to Russia asking for some help, here. Furthermore, oil and coal are supposed to be the product of intense heat and pressure applied to organic compounds, recycled dinosaurs and so forth. What happens to say, a dead cat, if you put it in the heat press? Do you get 10W40 out the other side?

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Guy takes the Department of Energy at face value when he says peak oil is 2050. Peak oil is actually about now, or was in 2005, according to more perceptive observers.

Start from there, thenn.

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How much energy is required and pollution produced for the various methods? Those surely are important parts of the policy choice.

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I agree with Elydog that one should not take the DOE info at face value. I actually heard that peak production will be within the next 5 to 15 years. Yeah a little better research on that one.

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On the soaring oil prices, the Iranian president said, "At a time when the growth of consumption is lower than the growth of production and the market is full of oil, prices are rising and this trend is completely fake and imposed."

"As you know the decrease in the dollar's value and the increase in energy prices are two sides of the same coin which are being introduced as factors behind the recent instability," Ahmadinejad added.

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peak oil means what? that we have used ab half of all oil available?
but since there may be accelerating demand for oil, double, tripple of what we r using now, the oil may last just another 50yrs.
and we still have 5,000 lbs carrying 100 lbs, instead of the other way around.
but there is also good news ab the fact that oil will be depleted:
we'l all walk as we did thrughout history.
we'l all use bikes, sails, donkeys, etcetc.

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Lovely. Lots more oil. But it's all more toxic than what we've been using.

Peak oil? Don't forget that peak oil is also a tool to scare up prices. People (sponsored by the oil industry) have been crying peak oil for decades now. When we reach peak oil the price goes through the roof. Oh wait. Isn't that's whats happening now?
There's a lot more oil out there folks. Just like cocaine and heroine. Expensive and plenty for all.
It's just killing the user.

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Russia and USA were allies? Boy I missed something somewhere!!

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We need to stop using oil altogether. It causes wars, global warming, and corruption. Our technology far exceeds the need for oil and coal. We need to Think outside the box and work out a solution to ending the use of hydrocarbons. Corrupt corporations keep us dependent on fossil fuels. Do some research on Algae oil and tell me that we need to continue our use of oil. Exxon-Mobile might not make a TRILLION off of it, but small farmers across the globe could make a decent living producing it for their local communities. The best thing is that algae pulls CO2 out of the air while it grows and releases less that traditional fossil fuels when burned. It's almost carbon NEGATIVE. Wake up people let make a future for ourselves and our planet. LEAVE the OIL in the GROUND.

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If you can overcome your paranoia you may want to consider how soon we could have 1 million Barrel of oil/day produced from algea? How soon we could build the commercial version of the technology. 10-15 years after we worked all the technical issues and that is optimistic. How much oil do we use per day? Around 60 million barrels/day. Work the numbers for all the alternatives and consider the investments required to build the "system" and then maybe you might consider that the oil majors should stick to their knitting and get some new investors to build the alternate technology systems

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Ummm, in case you haven't noticed Burt...Russia is kinda pissed about that whole "your are missiles in my neighbor's yard" deal that Bush unleashed!

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Push for Oil Price Floors ($100+/BBl) and Nuke Power. This would be a pathway off of Oil and to Clean Energy. Need to offer solutions!

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Let's face it, the oil countries, mostly goofballs, have us by the balls. Our best defense is to use less of it. I like my pickup but sold it because every gallon of gas I buy supports idiot religious freaks and arabs. The Bush morons want to win the war on "terror"? Then don't buy gasoline. Easy and simple.

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