• Republicans Are Working Hard to Allow Another Financial Crisis

    Last week House Republicans voted unanimously—with one oddball exception—to repeal big swaths of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act. This was, perhaps, not surprising since only six Republicans voted for Dodd-Frank in the first place. Today, the Trump administration weighed in:

    Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin on Monday proposed sweeping changes to the tough Dodd-Frank regulations put in place after the 2008 financial crisis, including a major reduction in the power of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau…reducing oversight of large financial institutions, providing even more regulatory relief for smaller banks and loosening new mortgage restrictions designed to prevent a repeat of the subprime meltdown.

    ….“A sensible rebalancing of regulatory principles is warranted in light of the significant improvement in the strength of the financial system and the economy, as well as the benefit of perspective since the Great Recession,” the report said….The report, which included dozens of recommendations, is the first of three ordered by Trump as he looks to fulfill a campaign promise to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

    Put all this together, and it’s pretty obvious that Dodd-Frank is essentially gone if it all passes. It’s even possible that Wall Street would, on net, end up less regulated than it was before the Great Crash.

    I don’t expect a serious answer to this, but I have to ask: Do Republicans think any response was warranted to the 2008 financial meltdown? They sure don’t act like it. I mean, Dodd-Frank was hardly a crushing blow to Wall Street. On a variety of measures, financial sector performance is cranking along this year at the very-healthy-but-non-bubble values of 2003:1

    And yet, a mere decade after the Great Crash, Republicans want to repeal pretty much everything we did to prevent 2003 performance from turning into 2007 performance and then 2009 performance. Why? After all, in the long run the Great Crash probably hurt Donald Trump’s working-class supporters more than anyone else.

    There’s no need to answer this. Unless, of course, you’re a conservative with something serious to say.

    1Sources: Employment via Bureau of Labor Statistics; stock performance via Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund via Google Finance; earnings via Yardini Research.

  • In the Future, Will We All Be Geniuses?

    Tiffany Kelly reviews Cory Doctorow’s Walkaway:

    Surprisingly, Doctorow doesn’t see his work as a dystopian novel. In fact, he thinks it’s precisely the opposite. Despite depicting a world that is changed by our own technological advancements and ideologies, Doctorow is optimistic about future generations of humans. Walkaway follows characters who do just that—they walk away from society in search of something better. As the literary world keeps churning out dystopian novels, it’s a relief that they’re not all doom and gloom.

    I guess it’s a matter of taste whether you find Doctorow’s future world dystopian or not. But it’s sure as hell not jetpacks and vacations on Mars. And the inflation rate! Holy cow.

    However, there was one part of the novel that sure was utopian. It was also the part that bugged me the most. As near as I can tell, there’s barely a single character in the entire Walkaway society with an IQ less than 150 or so. OK, maybe 120. How did that happen? What happened to, you know, all the ordinary people? What’s the point of depicting a near-future society where you pretend that the rabble no longer exists and everyone is a genius?

  • Lunchtime Photo

    Congratulations to Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party1 for their impressive gain of 32 seats in the recent UK general election. I don’t have a traditional-looking red rose for them, but I do have this: it’s red, and it’s a rose. Hopefully it will do.

    1According to the AP Stylebook, “Not labour, even if British.” Sorry folks.

    2Wait! I have an old copy of the AP stylebook. The current edition has no entry for Labor Party, but does say, “British spellings, when they differ from American, are acceptable only in particular cases such as formal or composition titles: Jane’s Defence Weekly, Labour Party.” So in this case the British spelling would be acceptable, but not required. That means the question comes down to Mother Jones style, and it appears that our house style is Labour Party.

  • Trumpism Is Taking Over the Republican Party. Are Democrats Next?

    From Axios:

    Senate Republicans are working to finish their draft health care bill, but have no plans to publicly release it, according to two senior Senate GOP aides. “We aren’t stupid,” said one of the aides.

    This is yet another example of the corrosive effect that Donald Trump is having on Washington culture—which, let’s face it, was not exactly a shining beacon to begin with. Last year Trump taught Republicans that you can keep your tax returns secret with no real explanation, and pay no price. After all, it won Trump the presidency, didn’t it? The lesson here is pretty simple: If secrecy is better than exposure, then keep things secret, and don’t let media pressure sway you into backing down or even bothering to explain yourself.

    Greg Gianforte is another example. He assaulted a reporter, and later events (like pleading guilty to assaulting a reporter) made it clear that he knew exactly what he’d done. But on the day before his special election, he released a comically belligerent statement not only denying everything, but blaming the reporter for the whole thing. It was pure Trump. It was a flat lie, he knew it was a lie, and he didn’t care. It helped him win the election, and that’s all that matters.

    James Comey’s testimony is another. He testified that Trump demanded loyalty and then asked him to drop the FBI investigation into Michael Flynn. But on Fox News or Trump’s Twitter acount, you never heard about this. All you heard is that Comey’s testimony totally vindicated Trump. This produces the spectacle of Newt Gingrich—the former master who is now the pupil sitting at Trump’s feet—claiming that Trump should fire the special prosecutor because Comey’s testimony proved that nothing happened. If you get all your news from Fox or Breitbart or Limbaugh or the Trump Twitter account, that sounds completely reasonable.

    Or take this from Paul Krugman yesterday about the Republican health bill:

    The Senate GOP is working completely in secret, with no hearings, and anything it passes will surely also try to preempt the CBO.

    You might think that this in part reflects conservative analyses that reach a different conclusion. But there aren’t any such analyses. Remember, OMB works for Trump; it has offered nothing. Even the Heritage Foundation, which used to be the go-to source for conservative creative accounting, hasn’t produced some implausible account of how the magic of markets will make it all work.

    This is new….They used to at least pretend….Now they’re not even bothering to fake it.

    Keep things secret. Tell whatever lies you need. Flatly misrepresent reality for folks who don’t follow the news and won’t know any better. Don’t waste time with even laughably preposterous policy analysis. Just do what you want to do and say what you need to say.

    The only silver lining is that, so far, this hasn’t actually worked very well. Obviously it got Trump elected, but it hasn’t passed any bills or produced any major policy impacts. But it might. And if it turns out that it does work, Democrats will fall right in line whether they want to or not. Then we’ll have a country that’s literally run like a game show, not an actual place with the fate of actual human beings involved.

    This is why everyone who cares about reality needs to make sure it doesn’t work.

  • Trump Leads Televised Praise Session For Himself

    Wut?

    I only left for a few minutes to slurp down some Corn Flakes! What did I miss? This:

    Reince Preibus wins the award for most obsequious bootlicking: “On behalf of the entire senior staff around you, Mr. President, we thank you for the opportunity and the blessing that you’ve given us to serve your agenda and the American people.” Click here to see what Chuck Schumer thought of all this.

    Jake Tapper wraps things up:

    Words fail me.

  • “Moderate” Republicans OK With Killing Medicaid Expansion After All

    Sarah Kliff:

    The possibility that Republicans will repeal Obamacare or drive it into collapse is an increasingly real one. That’s a reality where millions fewer have health insurance coverage and lower-income Americans struggle to afford coverage.

    ….Behind closed doors, Senate Republicans have worked out a path toward Obamacare repeal. The plans under discussion would end Medicaid expansion, causing millions of low-income Americans to lose health coverage. They may allow health insurance plans to charge higher premiums to people with preexisting conditions, too.

    The Republican plan is coming together because moderate senators are beginning to drop some of their initial repeal objections. Sens. Rob Portman (R-OH) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), for example, now back a plan to end the Medicaid expansion.

    Ah, the fabled moderate Republicans. They hated the old repeal plan, which phased out Medicaid expansion in three years. But they love the new plan, which phases out Medicaid expansion in seven years. It turns out that taking health coverage away from millions of people was never really their problem. They just didn’t want it to happen so quickly that anyone would blame them for it. They’re real profiles in courage.

  • Trump Rethinking UK Visit Because People There Are Mean

    From the New York Times:

    President Trump is considering scrapping or postponing a planned visit to Britain this year amid a billowing backlash over comments he made after the recent terrorist attack in London, two administration officials said. Over the past week, Mr. Trump has expressed increasing skepticism to aides about the trip after coming under intense criticism for a misleading charge that he leveled against London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan.

    ….He has told his staff that he wants to avoid a marathon overseas trip like his nine-day trek to the Middle East and Europe, which he found exhausting and overly long. One other factor leading to his reluctance, said one of the officials, is his preference for having foreign leaders visit him — not the other way around.

    I have two comments. First, how do we get a piece of this action? There have been plenty of backlashes right here in America over various Trump comments, and his popularity is dropping like a stone. How can we translate this into Trump spending less time with us?

    Second, seriously? Poor little Donald considers a single nine-day trip on a private jet with every detail taken care of “a marathon”? And he hates having to call on other people because—what? His ego is so damn fragile that he can’t stand not being in charge every moment of every day? What a crybaby.

  • Sorry Donald: The Economy Is About the Same as Usual

    Donald Trump is whining again:

    The #FakeNews MSM doesn’t report the great economic news since Election Day. #DOW up 16%. #NASDAQ up 19.5%. Drilling & energy sector way up. Regulations way down. 600,000+ new jobs added. Unemployment down to 4.3%. Business and economic enthusiasm way up- record levels!

    Let’s check this out. The Dow is definitely up, but the rest is a little dicier. First up is “Drilling & energy sector way up.” If Trump is talking about energy stocks, he’s wrong: the S&P 500 Energy Sector has been dropping all year and is well below its Election Day level. The real world looks pretty flat too:

    Next up: “Regulations way down.” How do you even measure this? Congress has killed off about a dozen Obama regs that took effect a few months ago, but that’s a drop in the ocean. And I assume that routine rulemaking has continued in the meantime. I think it’s safe to say that federal regulations aren’t “way down,” but beyond that there’s no good way to evaluate this so early in Trump’s term.

    Next up: “600,000+ new jobs added.” True enough. But not so impressive compared to Obama’s second term:

    Next up: “Unemployment down to 4.3%.” That’s true. But once again, nothing to brag about compared to the trendline Trump inherited:

    Next up: “Business and economic enthusiasm way up- record levels!” Consumer sentiment is pretty easy to measure. If we give Trump credit for everything since Election Day, he produced a nice jump in December, but nothing much since then:

    As for business sentiment, I’m not sure how to measure it. How about looking at business fixed investment in equipment? That should provide a decent idea of how optimistic businesses are feeling right now. Here it is:

    Basically, both the stock market and consumer sentiment got a bit of a kick from Trump’s election but have been pretty flat since then. All the other stuff is either normal or a bit lower than Obama’s record. For the last several years the economy has been good but not great. It still is.

  • You Say Cutter, I Say Kuhtar

    Here’s your Qatar timeline so far:

    June 5: Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations blockade air, sea, and land traffic into Qatar.

    June 6: Donald Trump praises the blockade. “So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off. They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!”

    June 8: Apparently having been told that Qatar is an ally which hosts both CENTCOM and a huge US military base, Trump offers up Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to mediate the dispute.

    June 9: As directed, Tillerson steps in. He asks the Gulf nations to “de-escalate the situation” and ease the blockade against Qatar. “There are humanitarian consequences to this blockade. We are seeing shortages of food, families are being forcibly separated and children pulled out of school….The blockade is hindering US military actions in the region and the campaign against ISIS.”

    One hour later: Trump escalates the conflict for no apparent reason at a press conference with the president of Romania. “The nation of Qatar, unfortunately, has been a funder of terrorism at a very high level. I’ve decided, along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, our great generals, and military people, the time has come to call on Qatar to end its funding. They have to end that funding. And its extremist ideology in terms of funding.”

    I dunno. Trump is playing good-cop-bad-cop? Trump was pissed off about the rumors that he didn’t realize Qatar hosted CENTCOM? Trump had no idea what Tillerson had said? Here’s the official White House spin:

    LOL. Roger that.