I wrote this week that the Iowa caucuses were a 120/135/150 game. If 120,000 people showed up, it would be heavy on Edwards’ hardcore supports. If it was closer to 135,000, you’d have the hardcore plus Clinton’s older voters. And if it was 150,000 or more, Obama got the youth vote out.
The Iowa Democratic Party just released this one-line email:
“With 93.5 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 218,000 caucus attendees.”
By now you probably know that Obama won Iowa, and won big. He may have won amongst the old, the white, the female—he may have won on other people’s turf tonight. We’ll find out soon. But what we do know is that he dominated on his turf. The Des Moines Register gets it right again.
Update: New email. “With 96 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 227,000 caucus attendees.” This may be a whole new paradigm…
Update Update: Another email. “With 100 percent of the precincts reporting we are seeing record turnout with 239,000 caucus attendees.” I’m going with, yes, new paradigm. Turnout in 2004 was 125,000. For the record, this turnout isn’t all Obama: an exceptionally strong set of Democratic candidates is creating enthusiasm across the board. So says Howard Dean: “Record turnout for Democrats—nearly twice as many people participated in the Democratic caucus as in the Republican caucus—shows that voters are excited about our candidates and that our Party is strong.”