Exit Polling from Pennsylvania Shows Victory for Clinton


pennsylvania-map.jpg PHILADELPHIA, PA — I’m at the Park Hyatt in downtown Philadelphia, the location of Hillary Clinton’s speech tonight. The networks have the race too close to call, so it will probably be a while before Clinton takes the stage here, or Obama takes the stage in Indiana, where he is spending the night. [Update: Networks call it for Clinton. Margin of victory remains to be seen.]

While we’re waiting, let’s take a look at some exit polling, shall we? Note that if these are the early exit polls, many voters who headed to their polling places after they got off work are not represented here. For more accurate numbers, wait until the real results roll in. Duh.

As David notes below, women were a stunning 58 percent of all Democratic voters and went for Clinton. Men were just 42 percent of voters and went for Obama. David crunches the numbers and says the final result should be a Clinton win by three points. The spinsters in both campaigns and the talking heads will expend much energy telling us which candidate gets to call that a victory.

Looking at some demographics….

Voters under 40 went for Obama. Voters over went for Clinton. Voters between 18 and 24 (i.e. college students) went almost 70-30 for Obama, but they were a scant six percent of the voters today. Among white voters, those under 30 years of age split evenly for Obama and Clinton. All white voters over 30 went for Clinton, with the margins increasing as age increases. Two-thirds of white voters over 60 years of age went for Clinton.

All told, whites were 80 percent of voters and went for Clinton 60-40. Blacks were 14 percent of voters and went 92-8 for Obama. White women, Clinton’s best demographic sub-slice, made up a whopping 47 percent of all voters.

Just over half of voters said the economy is the most important issue in the election. Clinton won those voters. Just over one-quarter said the war is the most important issue. Obama won those voters. The remaining voters said health care was the most important issue, and went for Clinton.

Clinton won those without college degrees and those making less than $50,000. Obama won their more educated, richer counterparts. Combine those facts with the age numbers above and it’s clear: Clinton’s 50/50 voters delivered again!

Geographically, Obama killed in Philly and its suburbs, but lost in Pittsburgh and the middle of the state.

Only 54 percent of voters said Clinton is “honest and trustworthy.” Sixty-seven percent of voters think that of Obama.

Interestingly, 10 percent of voters think neither Clinton or Obama is trustworthy. Those voters went 77-22 for Clinton — perhaps a sign of Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos. Counterargument: 11 percent of respondents identified as conservatives, and they split pretty evenly between the two candidates. Keep in mind, if trying to draw any conclusions here, that any Republicans sneaky enough to change their party affiliations in order to screw with the Democratic race probably aren’t going to be honest with exit pollsters.

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