New numbers from a New York Times/Siena College poll offer a grim portrait of the 2024 presidential election in five major swing states: Voters hate both candidates. But the bigger news is that despite having been impeached twice and indicted four times on criminal charges, former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five of the most important electoral swing states.
Voters think Biden, who at 80 is only three years older than Trump, is too old. He’s lost ground with all the traditional Democratic voting blocs: women, young people, and people of color. Perhaps most shocking is his poor showing among Black voters, who were supposed to be his biggest allies.
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.
In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six…
If the results in the poll were the same next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to win more than 300 Electoral College votes, far above the 270 needed to take the White House.
It’s going to be a long year.