November 5, 2023

The Big Problem Lurking in Biden’s New Poll Numbers

President Joe Biden at the White House.Chris Kleponis/CNP via ZUMA Press Wire

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New numbers from a New York Times/Siena College poll offer a grim portrait of the 2024 presidential election in five major swing states: Voters hate both candidates. But the bigger news is that despite having been impeached twice and indicted four times on criminal charges, former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in five of the most important electoral swing states.

Voters think Biden, who at 80 is only three years older than Trump, is too old. He’s lost ground with all the traditional Democratic voting blocs: women, young people, and people of color. Perhaps most shocking is his poor showing among Black voters, who were supposed to be his biggest allies.

The New York Times observes:

Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.

Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six…

If the results in the poll were the same next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to win more than 300 Electoral College votes, far above the 270 needed to take the White House.

It’s going to be a long year.

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THE FACTS SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES.

At least we hope they will, because that’s our approach to raising the $350,000 in online donations we need right now—during our high-stakes December fundraising push.

It’s the most important month of the year for our fundraising, with upward of 15 percent of our annual online total coming in during the final week—and there’s a lot to say about why Mother Jones’ journalism, and thus hitting that big number, matters tremendously right now.

But you told us fundraising is annoying—with the gimmicks, overwrought tone, manipulative language, and sheer volume of urgent URGENT URGENT!!! content we’re all bombarded with. It sure can be.

So we’re going to try making this as un-annoying as possible. In “Let the Facts Speak for Themselves” we give it our best shot, answering three questions that most any fundraising should try to speak to: Why us, why now, why does it matter?

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