Adam Weinstein

All it took was 17 years—six and a half of them under Democratic control—but Congress now appears poised to end "Don't Ask Don't Tell," a Clinton-era political compromise that mostly succeeded in forcing gay service members to compromise themselves. The New York Times reports the House and Senate have agreed on language for legislation that would abolish the ban on gays in the service; the Senate language will likely be advanced on the floor by Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), a guy who hasn't always been popular with liberals and Democrats. But this will certainly help his reputation in those circles. Lieberman, Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Penn.), sent the White House a letter today (PDF) notifying them that legislation was imminent. Peter Orszag, director of the Office of Management and Budget, promptly replied (PDF) with an "OK."

Advocates for gay and lesbian service members expressed excitement—but not too much. "The White House announcement is a dramatic breakthrough in dismantling 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,'" Servicemembers Legal Defense Network Executive Director Aubrey Sarvis said in a statement. "The path forward crafted by the President, Department of Defense officials, and repeal leaders on Capitol Hill respects the ongoing work by the Pentagon on how to implement open service and allows for a vote this week. President Obama's support and Secretary Gates' buy-in should insure a winning vote, but we are not there yet. The votes still need to be worked and counted."

The votes, indeed, will be an interesting question. (Kevin Drum has a nice analysis here.) Republican senators have the power to filibuster, but they probably won't; passage of the Senate version will give them something to rail against. Things may be more interesting on the House side, where Democrats, especially moderates, are treading carefully going into an election cycle. Thus far, they've tried to localize their elections and avoid association with President Barack Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, or the Dems' national-level issues. That will be much harder after a "yes" vote for repeal.

And even if the votes are there, the policy is unlikely to change before year's end; all parties have agreed to let Defense Secretary Robert Gates' Pentagon inquiry panel complete its work—studying how the change would affect the military and how best to prepare for it.

Perhaps the brass could speed things up by simply visiting their Canadian, or British, or Israeli, counterparts—all forces where straights and gays are integrated, and readiness isn't affected.

There'll be much more to write about this in the coming days; expect MoJo to be on it. There'll be me, as well as our human rights reporter, Mac McClelland, who's currently up to her ankles (literally) in Gulf Coast crude. In the meantime, if you have specific questions about DADT and the military you'd like us to tackle, feel free to contact me with them here.

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Right-wing conservatives retrogressives in the American West have been so preoccupied with illegal brown people, that they forgot to worry about the legal ones. So says a new analysis by Public Policy Polling, anyway: Since the passage of Arizona's draconian "Papers, Please" law, likely voters in Arizona and Colorado have shifted their support to the Democratic candidates in a "very substantive way," bucking the alleged national mood of Obama-hatin'. That shift is largely due to energized (and probably angry) Latino voters. According to Tom Jensen, PPP's director:

When we polled Colorado in early March Michael Bennet and Jane Norton were tied. Last week we found Bennet with a 3 point lead. One of the biggest reasons for that shift? Bennet went from leading Norton by 12 points with Hispanic voters to a 21 point advantage. That large shift in a Democratic direction among Hispanics mirrors what we saw in our Arizona Senate polling last month- Rodney Glassman went from trailing John McCain by 17 points with them in September to now holding a 17 point lead.

Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet- Bennet and Glassman are both doing better with white voters than they were before as well, although not to the same degree that they've improved with Hispanics.

I called up Jensen to shed some more light on these developments. He said that yes, indeed, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet is leading in Colorado, and in Arizona, challenger Rodney Glassman (who's still a longshot), who once trailed John McCain by 30 points, has cut that margin in half. (McCain's popularity, the poll says, has "plummeted" in Arizona.) Has Jensen ever seen anything like this? At this stage in an election cycle, he says, "Most movement in races don't have that much to do with the candidates, they have to do with a change in the national political climate." What's weird, though, is that "there hasn't been a movement in that political climate towards Democrats. They're not doing better; they've largely stayed where they are."

The takeaway, according to Jensen: At least in these races—and perhaps later on in Nevada and New Mexico—"If the immigration bill is having any effect, it's to shift Latino voters in large numbers to the Democratic candidates"—but there's no concurrent migration of more white voters to other side.

In short, nativists and neo-Know-Nothing candidates may succeed in squeezing past fellow conservatives retrogressives in primary races, but come November, they may taste the pain, courtesy of the minority voters threatened by their policies. That is, of course, unless the right succeeds in rounding up or scaring off all those voters before election day.

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