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Election Pool
ELECTION POOL....Do Republicans really think they might lose 34 seats in the House? Wow.
And as long as we're on the subject, it's time for predictions. There are three categories this year:
Winner and total electoral votes for president.
Composition of the House. Current composition is 235-199-1.
Composition of the Senate. Current composition is 49-49-2.
I suck at this, but I'll predict (a) Obama with 310 electoral votes, (b) 250-185, and (c) 55-43-2. Leave your predictions in comments. Winner gets a free subscription to Mother Jones.
Electoral: Obama 538, McCain 0
House: Democrat 435, Republican 0
Senate: Democrat 72, Republican 26, Independent 2
You can take that to the bank.
Thanks, optimist - now I can make my prediction without betraying my personal cynicism.
Electoral: Obama 350
House: 270-164-1
Senate - 60-38-2
Electoral College: Obama 375, McCain 163
House: 257 Democrats, 178 Republicans
Senate: 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents
Obama: 349
House: 271-164-1
Senate: 58-40-2
Electoral: Obama 285
House: 255-180-2
Senate: 55-43-2
Obama: 318EVs
Senate Dems: 46 (plus 2 Ind.)
House Dems: 260
- A
Obama 330 electoral votes.
Senate: 57-41-2.
House: 270-165.
How will the winner be computed? I suppose you could compute a percentage for each of the three numbers (so they all get weighted equally), and add up the errors, with the smallest total percentage error winning. (Yes, I'm a nerd).
Electoral: Obama 367 McCain 171
Senate: D 59 R 39 I 2
House: D 265 R 169 I 1
of course I meant Senate Dems 56, plus 2 Ind.
Electoral College: Obama 338, McCain 200
House: 250 Democrats, 165 Republicans
Senate: 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents
Obama 279 vs McCain 259
Congress 250 (D)
Senate 54 (D)
Optimist rules, but I will go with the following:
Obama 367
House 255-180
Senate 57-42-1-1 and that's D-R-I-B (B = Biden, as king of Senate)
Who's the independent in the House?
A) Obama, 375
B) Democrat 270, Republican 165
C) Democrat 59, Republican 39, Independent 2
Obama: 375
House: 270-165
Senate: 57-41-2
Sure, why not --
President: 364 Obama - 174 McCain
House: 250 Dem - 185 Rep
Senate: 56 Dem - 42 Rep - 2 Ind
There's not an independent in the House, it's a vacant seat.
Electoral: Obama 372 McCain 166
Senate: D 57 R 41 I 2
House: D 267 R 167 I 1
(Stephanie Tubbs Jones' seat in OH-11, to be precise.)
I predict that Nate Silver's predictions will be closer to the final totals than yours are, Kevin. No prize for me, but a feeling of security in my prediction.
Electoral 367-171
Senate 58-40-2
House 262-173
Obama: 375
House: 266-169
Senate: 57-41-2
Obama - 318
McCant - 220
Senate: D 58, R 41, 1 Lieberman, 1 Ind.
House: D 249, R 185, Ind. 1
Obama with 347 EV
Senate 57-41-2
House 255-179-1
Obama 305, McCain 230
House 260(D),175(R)
Senate 57(D), 41(R), 2(I)
Obama 318
House 261-174
Senate 57-41-2
Electoral: Obama 364 - McCain 174
Senate: Dem 58 - Rep 40 - Ind 2
House: Dem 259 - Rep 176
Obamies
321-217
257-178
57-41-2
O - 367 M - 171
Senate
D 57 R 41 + Sanders and Lieberman
House
D 271 R 163 1
You're keeping Lieberman as an Indy? Gives a bad name to independents everywhere.
President: Obama 375, McCain 163
House: Democrats 260, Republicans 175
Senate-Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Lieberman and Sanders.
I think it's at the fringes of possibility that the Democrats could win 59 seats in the Senate if they sweep the races in Minnesota, Georgia and Mississippi, but I figure they'll only take one of them. I think they're close to locks to pick up at least seven seats-the question is whether they take any more.
A free sub? Really. Ok, here goes nothing.
Prez: 378 Obama, 160 McCain
Senate: 58 (d), 40 (r), 2 (i)
House: 260 (d), 174 (r)
I made these predictions a week ago to a friend, but I'm still feeling reasonably confident in them.
353 EVs (Kerry states + Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio)
55+2 in the Senate (the obvious 54, Shaheen, Hagan, and Merkley).
252 in the House.
The Obama prediction might be too optimistic and the Congressional ones might be too pessimistic. But I feel pretty confident they won't be wrong in the opposite direction.
a) Obama 302 EV
b) 250-185
c) 57-42-2
(a) Obama takes 364 electoral votes.
(b) House 260 Democrats, 175 republicans
(c) Senate - 58-40-2
Electoral O=381
Senate D=61
House D=265
Obama with 401 EVs. (Note: I already went with Obama 52% over McCain with 46% back in September. I'd probably go with 53% right now, but leave it.)
Senate: 59-39-2
House: 258-177
max
['I can afford to be disappointed.']
Here's hoping I do better than my annual crash-and-burn with the NCAAs:
1. Obama 347-191
2. 266-168-1
3. 56-42-2
Let's get this to 59 in the Senate. I don't want to be beholden to Joe Lieberman for anything.
EC: 349-189 (Obama wins)
Senate: 57(D)-41(R)-2(I)
House: 257(D)-181(R)
Obama 339
House 254-180-1
Senate 57-41-2
a) Prez: 364(Obama) - 174(
b) House: 247(D)-187(R)-1(I)
c) Senate: 56(D)-42(R)-2(I)
Obama 364 - 174
Senate 57(D)-41-2
House 260(D)
EC - Obama 317
House - 253-181-1
Senate - 57-41-2
Obama 370
58-40-2
262-172-1
EC: Obama 342
House: 261-174
Senate: 59-40-1 (Lieberman will become a Republican)
I'll play sort of pessimist...
Obama wins with 281 EVs
Senate 55-43-2 Dems
House 253-188 Dems
Obama 305-233
Senate 56-1-1-42
House 242 Dems
a) Obama 375.
b) 275 D, 159 R, 1 I.
c) 58 D, 40 R, 2 I.
Electoral: Obama 349, McCain 189
House: Democrat 260, Republican 175
Senate: Democrat 57, Republican 41, Independent 2
Although one of those independents is likely to be an R in name as well as practice soon.