Now that Sen Lindsey Graham (R–SC) has given up on passing cap-and-trade through the Senate, it's probably truly dead. Dave Roberts surveys the wreckage:
Graham’s comments seem to point to an alternative that’s been much-discussed recently: a scaled-back cap-and-trade program that would cover only the electricity sector. That would be coupled with some version of the (pitifully weak) American Clean Energy Leadership Act passed by Bingaman’s Energy Committee last year, with additional subsidies for offshore drilling and nuclear power.
Would the resulting bill be worth a damn? Put it this way: it would be possible to craft a good package of climate and energy legislation with a cap-and-trade system covering utilities, ambitious renewable energy mandates, stringent energy efficiency regulations, and a massive round of investments in clean energy.
That’s not what will pass. My prediction is that whatever [Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman] come up with will look more or less like energy policy over the last 20 years: a hodgepodge of subsidies and tax breaks for favored industries. At this point there seems little hope left of anything better.
There’s much to discuss about the bill, the political fight that will take shape around it, and the best way forward for clean energy advocates in coming years. For now I just wanted to mark what looks to me like the final passing of the dream of an economy-wide price on carbon.
This isn't a huge shock. Cap-and-trade was always going to be even more difficult to pass than healthcare reform, and healthcare is obviously holding on by a thread right now. But it's sad news anyway — and trust me, we're not going to get a lovely and elegant carbon tax in its place. For now, carbon pricing is dead. Another victory for the Fox/Rush/Drudge axis.